648
FXUS63 KILX 130726
AFDILX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
226 AM CDT SAT SEP 13 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUES
ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST IL THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY WITH HIGHS
IN THE UPPER 80S TO MID 90S EXPECTED.
- MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER (LEVEL 1 OF 5) TODAY FOR AREAS
EAST OF A PEORIA COUNTY TO WAYNE COUNTY LINE. STRONG TO SEVERE
WINDS IS THE MOST LIKELY HAZARD WITH THESE STORMS.
- NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION COMES LATE NEXT WEEK, WITH A 30-40%
CHANCE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 226 AM CDT SAT SEP 13 2025
RIDGING OVERHEAD WILL CONTINUE TO RULE THE WEATHER PATTERN TO END
OUT THIS WORK WEEK. TEMPERATURES ARE STILL BUILDING FOR THE WEEKEND
WITH WAA IN PLACE. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 90S FOR THE NEXT WEEK,
DROPPING TO ONLY THE MID TO UPPER 60S OVERNIGHT. THE HOTTEST DAY IS
CURRENTLY FORECAST TO BE SUNDAY, WITH HEAT INDICES OF 95-100
DEGREES. IT DOESN'T LOOK LIKE THESE HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S AND 90S
WILL BE EXITING ANYTIME SOON. THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE SHOWING THESE
TEMPERATURES LASTING WELL INTO THE END OF THE MONTH. THE CPC AGREES
AND KEEPS ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ALL THE WAY THROUGH THE
3-4 WEEK OUTLOOK.
A SHORTWAVE RIDING THE EDGE OF THE EXISTING RIDGE IS INFLUENCING A
MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1 OF 5) FOR SEVERE WEATHER FROM A PEORIA COUNTY
TO WAYNE COUNTY LINE AND EAST. SOUNDINGS SHOW DECENT MOISTURE RETURN
ALOFT AND A DEEP INVERTED V SHAPE. CAPE IS PRETTY UNIMPRESSIVE, BUT
EFFECTIVE WIND SHEAR WILL BE AROUND 30 KNOTS. AN OCCASIONAL STRONG
TO SEVERE WIND GUST APPEARS TO BE THE MOST LIKELY HAZARD. MOST OF
THE CAMS ARE SHOWING THE STORMS FIZZLING OUT BEFORE THEY GET TO I-
70, BUT THE NSSL MODEL HOLDS THEM TOGETHER THROUGH SOUTHERN IL
(WHICH MAKES THAT MODEL THE OUTLIER). THIS ROUND OF STORMS WILL
ENTER THE NORTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA AROUND 16Z, AND BE DONE
BETWEEN 21Z AND 23Z THIS EVENING.
THE NAMNEST IS SHOWING ANOTHER ROUND DEVELOPING IN IN AND MOVING
WESTWARD AROUND 06Z, POTENTIALLY IMPACTING SOUTHEASTERN IL. OFTEN
TIMES THESE BACKWARD PROPAGATING SYSTEMS ARE A FALSE OUTCOME IN THE
MODELS, BUT WANTED TO MENTION THERE IS AT LEAST A 20-30% CHANCE FOR
THESE STORMS OVERNIGHT.
SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY IS LOOKING TO BE DRY. MORE RAIN CHANCES
RETURN LATE IN THE WEEK. THE NEXT BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN COMES
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY WITH A 30-40% CHANCE.
COPPLE
AVIATION
(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1156 PM CDT FRI SEP 12 2025
VFR FOR MOST CENTRAL IL TERMINALS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH
SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH WINDS NEAR/UNDER 10 KT. HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS
SHOW AN AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING OVER NORTHERN IL THIS
MORNING, DROPPING SOUTHEAST INTO EAST CENTRAL IL THIS AFTERNOON.
CONFIDENCE ON TIMING/PLACEMENT OF STORMS IS LOW AT THIS RANGE, SO
WENT WITH PROB30 GROUP FOR TSRA AT KBMI-KCMI AND WILL WATCH TRENDS
FOR REFINEMENT ON LATER FORECASTS.
25
ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
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