279
FXUS63 KILX 131050
AFDILX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
550 AM CDT SAT SEP 13 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUES
ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST IL THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY WITH HIGHS
IN THE UPPER 80S TO MID 90S EXPECTED.
- MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER (LEVEL 1 OF 5) TODAY FOR AREAS
EAST OF A PEORIA COUNTY TO WAYNE COUNTY LINE. STRONG TO SEVERE
WINDS IS THE MOST LIKELY HAZARD WITH THESE STORMS.
- NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION COMES LATE NEXT WEEK, WITH A 30-40%
CHANCE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 226 AM CDT SAT SEP 13 2025
RIDGING OVERHEAD WILL CONTINUE TO RULE THE WEATHER PATTERN TO END
OUT THIS WORK WEEK. TEMPERATURES ARE STILL BUILDING FOR THE WEEKEND
WITH WAA IN PLACE. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 90S FOR THE NEXT WEEK,
DROPPING TO ONLY THE MID TO UPPER 60S OVERNIGHT. THE HOTTEST DAY IS
CURRENTLY FORECAST TO BE SUNDAY, WITH HEAT INDICES OF 95-100
DEGREES. IT DOESN'T LOOK LIKE THESE HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S AND 90S
WILL BE EXITING ANYTIME SOON. THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE SHOWING THESE
TEMPERATURES LASTING WELL INTO THE END OF THE MONTH. THE CPC AGREES
AND KEEPS ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ALL THE WAY THROUGH THE
3-4 WEEK OUTLOOK.
A SHORTWAVE RIDING THE EDGE OF THE EXISTING RIDGE IS INFLUENCING A
MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1 OF 5) FOR SEVERE WEATHER FROM A PEORIA COUNTY
TO WAYNE COUNTY LINE AND EAST. SOUNDINGS SHOW DECENT MOISTURE RETURN
ALOFT AND A DEEP INVERTED V SHAPE. CAPE IS PRETTY UNIMPRESSIVE, BUT
EFFECTIVE WIND SHEAR WILL BE AROUND 30 KNOTS. AN OCCASIONAL STRONG
TO SEVERE WIND GUST APPEARS TO BE THE MOST LIKELY HAZARD. MOST OF
THE CAMS ARE SHOWING THE STORMS FIZZLING OUT BEFORE THEY GET TO I-
70, BUT THE NSSL MODEL HOLDS THEM TOGETHER THROUGH SOUTHERN IL
(WHICH MAKES THAT MODEL THE OUTLIER). THIS ROUND OF STORMS WILL
ENTER THE NORTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA AROUND 16Z, AND BE DONE
BETWEEN 21Z AND 23Z THIS EVENING.
THE NAMNEST IS SHOWING ANOTHER ROUND DEVELOPING IN IN AND MOVING
WESTWARD AROUND 06Z, POTENTIALLY IMPACTING SOUTHEASTERN IL. OFTEN
TIMES THESE BACKWARD PROPAGATING SYSTEMS ARE A FALSE OUTCOME IN THE
MODELS, BUT WANTED TO MENTION THERE IS AT LEAST A 20-30% CHANCE FOR
THESE STORMS OVERNIGHT.
SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY IS LOOKING TO BE DRY. MORE RAIN CHANCES
RETURN LATE IN THE WEEK. THE NEXT BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN COMES
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY WITH A 30-40% CHANCE.
COPPLE
AVIATION
(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 550 AM CDT SAT SEP 13 2025
GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE 12Z PERIOD. THE
EXCEPTION WILL BE IN THE EVENT OF TSRA OR SHRA AT BMI/CMI/DEC,
WHERE LOWERED CEILINGS AND/OR VIS WOULD BE POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON. CONFIDENCE IS LOW IF THESE STORMS WILL OCCUR BETWEEN
18Z AND 22Z.
WINDS ARE GENERALLY OUT OF THE SOUTH, VARYING BY 20-30 DEGREES AT
ANY POINT THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT, LESS THAN 10
KNOTS. WHERE THUNDERSTORMS COULD MOVE THROUGH, STRONG TO SEVERE
WIND GUSTS MAY OCCUR, AS THERE IS A RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER
TODAY.
COPPLE
ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
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