371
FXUS63 KILX 151718
AFDILX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
1218 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM HAS TRENDED SLOWER, AND NOW MOSTLY DRY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE DAYTIME HOURS ON
THURSDAY, WITH HIGHS IN THE 90S.
- OCCASIONAL RAIN CHANCES RETURN LATE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND
(20-40% EACH DAY). TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE UNLIKELY TO EXCEED
1" (LESS THAN 30% CHANCE).
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 137 AM CDT MON SEP 15 2025
WITH THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING STILL SITTING OVERHEAD, THE FORECAST
HASN'T CHANGED TOO MUCH. THE HIGHS YESTERDAY OVERPERFORMED, GIVING
US THE HOTTEST DAY OF THE YEAR FOR MANY LOCATIONS. HIGHS CONTINUE TO
BE IN THE 90S THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY, DROPPING TO ONLY THE MID TO
UPPER 60S OVERNIGHT. WE MAY GET A BREAK IN THE SUMMERTIME WARMTH
SOON, AS A SLOW MOVING UPPER LOW TRAVELS ACROSS THE REGION THIS
WEEKEND. HIGHS TO DROP DOWN INTO THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S FOR THE
WEEKEND. THE CPC KEEPS ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN THE OUTLOOKS
THROUGH THE NEXT 3-4 WEEKS. NORMAL HIGHS FOR MID TO LATE SEPTEMBER
ARE AROUND THE MID 70S TO LOW 80S AND LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 50S.
THE FORECAST WILL BE DRY, WHICH IS BAD NEWS FOR THE WORSENING
DROUGHT. THE MODELS HAVE SLOWED DOWN THE SYSTEM THAT IS FORECAST FOR
THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK. THURSDAY IS NOW LOOKING TO BE DRY. POPS
INCREASE BY FRIDAY TO 30-40% CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
DAILY CHANCES FOR RAIN EXIST EVERYDAY AFTER FRIDAY.
NONE OF THESE ROUNDS OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE DROUGHT BUSTING. THE
NBM IS SHOWING ONLY A 15-30% CHANCE OF AN INCH DURING THE FRIDAY 12Z
TO MONDAY 12Z, 72 HOUR PERIOD.
COPPLE
AVIATION
(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1208 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2025
TAFS REMAIN ONE LINE AS VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT EASTERLY WINDS
(GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 KNOTS) WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD.
SOME SCATTERED CIRRUS CLOUDS WILL FILTER OVERHEAD, AND A FEW
DIURNAL CUMULUS CLOUDS COULD DEVELOP AROUND 6-7 KFT THIS
AFTERNOON.
ERWIN
ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
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