831
FXUS63 KILX 160655
AFDILX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
155 AM CDT TUE SEP 16 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- HOT AND DRY WEATHER PERSISTS THROUGH POTENTIALLY FRIDAY, WITH
DAYTIME HIGHS TOPPING OUT IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S.
- A SLOW-MOVING UPPER SYSTEM WILL BRING COOLER TEMPERATURES AND
PRECIPITATION CHANCES (20-40%) LATE THIS WEEK THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 155 AM CDT TUE SEP 16 2025
THE HIGHS YESTERDAY OVERPERFORMED ONCE AGAIN, LIKELY THANKS TO THE
CLEAR SKIES AND DRY AIR. HIGHS CONTINUE TO BE IN THE 90S UNTIL LATE
IN THE WEEK, DROPPING INTO THE 60S OVERNIGHT. WE MAY GET A BRIEF
BREAK IN THE SUMMERTIME WARMTH SOON. A SLOW MOVING UPPER LOW TRAVELS
ACROSS THE REGION THIS WEEKEND, BREAKING DOWN THE UPPER RIDGING THAT
HAS BEEN IN PLACE FOR THE LAST WEEK. HIGHS WILL BECOME MORE
SEASONABLE FOR THE WEEKEND, DROPPING DOWN INTO THE UPPER 70S TO MID
80S.
THE NEXT 3 DAYS WILL REMAIN DRY. THE MODELS HAVE CONTINUED THE
SLOWER PROGRESSION OF THE SYSTEM LATER THIS WEEK. POPS INCREASE BY
FRIDAY TO A 40-50% CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. DAILY
CHANCES FOR RAIN EXIST INTO THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. NO RELIEF
FOR THE DROUGHT IS EXPECTED ANYTIME SOON. THE PROBABILISTIC NBM IS
SHOWING A 20-40% CHANCE OF AN INCH DURING THE FRIDAY 12Z TO MONDAY
12Z, 72 HOUR PERIOD.
THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE HINTING AT MORE RIDGING SETTING UP BEHIND THIS
WEEKEND'S MORE PROGRESSIVE SYSTEM. DRY WEATHER AND UNSEASONABLY WARM
TEMPERATURE TO RETURN POTENTIALLY. THE CPC CONTINUES TO HOLD ON TO
THE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK THROUGH THE NEXT 3-4 WEEKS.
NORMAL HIGHS FOR MID TO LATE SEPTEMBER ARE AROUND THE MID 70S TO LOW
80S AND LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 50S.
COPPLE
AVIATION
(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1148 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2025
LIGHT EAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD, ALONG WITH VFR
CONDITIONS UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.
25
ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
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