083
FXUS63 KILX 162303
AFDILX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
603 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- HOT AND DRY WEATHER CONTINUES THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY, WITH DAYTIME
HIGHS TOPPING OUT IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S.
- A COUPLE UPPER SYSTEMS WILL BRING THE RETURN OF PRECIPITATION
(20-40% CHANCE) AND TEMPERATURES COOLING SLIGHTLY FRIDAY
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 144 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2025
REX BLOCKING REMAINS IN PLACE OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE US WITH
AN EXPANSIVE AREA OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED NEAR THE EASTERN
GREAT LAKES/NORTHEAST US ATOP LOW PRESSURE OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC
STATES. SURFACE RIDGING EXTENDS AS FAR WEST AS THE SOUTH-CENTRAL
PLAINS, WHICH WILL KEEP HOT AND DRY WEATHER IN PLACE HERE LOCALLY
THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES AS OF 1 PM ARE
SITTING IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S WITH GENTLE EAST-NORTHEAST
WINDS KEEPING A CONSTANT FEED OF DRY AIR OVER THE AREA. WITH
MINIMAL CLOUD COVER EXPECTED OVERNIGHT, RADIATIONAL COOLING SHOULD
ALLOW LOWS TO EASILY DROP INTO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 50S.
AN UPPER LOW CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER MONTANA/WYOMING WILL GET PUSHED
EAST THE NEXT FEW DAYS BY A BUILDING RIDGE TO ITS WEST. THIS FEATURE
WILL BRING A MUCH NEEDED PATTERN CHANGE LATER THIS WEEK AS IT BEGINS
TO BREAK DOWN THE STRONG UPPER RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN US. THE UPPER
WAVE WILL BECOME CLOSED OFF AND SLOWLY WORK INTO THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THROUGH THE WEEKEND, BRINGING OCCASIONAL CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS (20-40%) FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO COOL SLIGHTLY THROUGH THE WEEKEND, BUT WILL
STILL REMAIN WARMER THAN NORMAL. RAINFALL AMOUNTS LOOK TO BE
RELATIVELY LIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND, WITH THE NATIONAL BLEND OF
MODELS (NBM) SUGGESTING ONLY A 20-30% CHANCE WE SEE OVER 1 INCH OF
RAIN THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.
A PROGRESSIVE PATTERN CONTINUES INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A MORE
POTENT UPPER TROUGH DIVES TOWARD THE MIDWEST STATES, SENDING A
COLD FRONT ACROSS THE CENTRAL US. ALTHOUGH EXACT PLACEMENT AND
TIMING OF THIS SYSTEM HAS BEEN BOUNCING AROUND WITH THE LAST
SEVERAL MODEL CYCLES, THE NBM KEEPS LOW-END PRECIPITATION CHANCES
OVER OUR AREA THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO STAY
NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH MIDWEEK. THE CLIMATE PREDICTION
CENTER IS STILL ADVERTISING A 60-70% CHANCE FOR ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE END OF SEPTEMBER. FOR REFERENCE, NORMAL
TEMPERATURES BY THE LAST DAY OF SEPTEMBER SHOULD BE IN THE MIDDLE
70S.
NMA
AVIATION
(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 603 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2025
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL SEE LITTLE
MOVEMENT OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THE RESULT WILL BE STEADY
STATE CONDITIONS ACROSS CENTRAL ILLINOIS WITH VFR CONDITIONS AND
LIGHT NORTHEAST WINDS PREVAILING THROUGH THE PERIOD.
DEUBELBEISS
ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
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