624
FXUS63 KILX 010500
AFDILX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
1200 AM CDT SAT NOV 1 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- DRY CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE MOST OF THE AREA THROUGH THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK.
- BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY WILL TURN A FEW DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 123 PM CDT FRI OCT 31 2025
A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH/COOL FRONT WAS PUSHING INTO WESTERN IL
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. AHEAD OF THIS, WINDS WILL BACK WSW THIS
AFTERNOON WITH SPORADIC 20-25 MPH GUSTS, AND WITH PLENTIFUL
SUNSHINE HIGHS SHOULD GET CLOSE TO SEASONABLE LEVELS AROUND 60
DEGREES.
UPPER AIR DATA AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATED A CLOSED MID
LEVEL LOW LOCATED OVER CENTRAL MN. GUIDANCE SHOWS THIS SLIDING
SOUTHEAST INTO WEST CENTRAL IL SATURDAY AFTERNOON. SUITE OF CAM
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS ANY SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW WILL BE
QUITE SPARSE LOCALLY WHICH IS NOT SURPRISING GIVEN A DRY COLUMN
AND PWATS BELOW 0.50". THE BEST SHOT OF SEEING ANY SHOWERS WILL BE
OVER THE WESTERN CWA AFTER 18Z SAT AND HAVE A 20% POP FOR THIS.
IF THESE DO OCCUR, FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW WEAK INSTABILITY POKING
ABOVE THE -12C LEVEL SO GRAUPEL CAN'T BE RULED OUT IN ANY MORE
INTENSE SHOWERS. SEPARATE FROM FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER
LOW, AREAS SOUTH OF I-70 WILL BE BRUSHED BY THE NORTHERN EDGE OF
AN F-GEN BAND BEHIND THE DEPARTING COOL FRONT, MIDDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. FOR THIS WE HAVE A LOW (30%) CHANCE OF SHOWERS
SOUTH OF A FLORA TO LAWRENCEVILLE LINE. OTHERWISE SATURDAY IS
SHAPING UP AS A MOSTLY CLOUDY AND CHILLY DAY. WITH THE COOL POCKET
ALOFT OVERHEAD, UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S HIGHS WILL BE COMMON,
COOLEST WEST OF I-55.
THE UPPER LOW QUICKLY SINKS SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA SUNDAY, REPLACED
BY SHORTWAVE RIDGING. THIS WILL SIGNAL THE START OF A WARMING
TREND WHICH LOOKS TO LAST THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. MEDIUM RANGE
ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SHOWS QUASI-ZONAL MID LEVEL FLOW THROUGH THE
WEEK, WITH A COUPLE WEAK/NON-IPMACTFUL/DRY COLD FRONTAL PASSAGES
MONDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH MINOR TEMPERATURE FLUCTUATIONS
ASSOCIATED WITH EACH. BY THE END OF THE WEEK A STRONGER SHORTWAVE
OVER THE PLAINS COULD BRING A MORE SIGNIFICANT SYSTEM TO THE
REGION ON FRIDAY, HOWEVER THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE IS LARGE AT THIS
RANGE LEADING TO LOW CONFIDENCE IN TIMING/IMPACTS.
25
AVIATION
(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1159 PM CDT FRI OCT 31 2025
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS OVERNIGHT WILL SETTLE
OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT PLAINS SATURDAY EVENING. LIGHT WEST TO
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD ACROSS CENTRAL
ILLINOIS LEE OF THE RIDGE AXIS. DIURNAL CUMULUS IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP BY LATE MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE THE
REMAINDER OF THE DAY. IT MAY BRIEFLY START IN THE MVFR CATEGORY
BEFORE LIFTING TO VFR, OTHERWISE PRIMARILY VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.
DEUBELBEISS
ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
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