954
FXUS63 KILX 011710
AFDILX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
1210 PM CDT SAT NOV 1 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- THE NEXT CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD RAINFALL WILL MATERIALIZE BY
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS A COLD FRONT SWINGS THROUGH THE
REGION.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 AM CDT SAT NOV 1 2025
AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW EVIDENT ON 0730Z/230AM WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVER
IOWA WILL PIVOT SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. SKIES WILL
INITIALLY BE PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY EARLY THIS MORNING:HOWEVER,
AS THE LOW COMES OVERHEAD AND MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES STEEPEN
SUBSTANTIALLY, SKIES WILL BECOME MOSTLY CLOUDY BY AFTERNOON.
ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP DURING PEAK HEATING, ESPECIALLY
ALONG/WEST OF THE I-55 CORRIDOR. AS HAS BEEN NOTED BY THE PAST FEW
MODEL RUNS, THE DEEPEST MOISTURE WILL EXIST ON THE S/SE PERIPHERY
OF THE LOW FROM THE OZARKS INTO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. AS A
RESULT, HIGHER RAIN CHANCES WILL FOCUS ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE I-64
CORRIDOR THIS AFTERNOON. THANKS TO THE INCREASED CLOUD COVER,
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN IN THE UPPER 40S WEST OF I-55...BUT
WILL REACH THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 50S EAST OF I-57 WHERE PARTIAL
SUNSHINE WILL PERSIST LONGEST. THE LOW WILL QUICKLY SHIFT
SOUTHEASTWARD OUT OF THE REGION TONIGHT, WITH JUST A FEW SHOWERS
PERSISTING SOUTH OF I-70 INTO EARLY EVENING. ONCE THE SYSTEM EXITS
AND SKIES PARTIALLY CLEAR, A VERY CHILLY NIGHT WILL BE ON
TAP...WITH LOWS MOSTLY IN THE UPPER 20S AND LOWER 30S. DESPITE A
RETURN TO SUNNY SKIES, HIGHS ON SUNDAY WILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR IN THE MIDDLE 50S.
BARNES
LONG TERM
(MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 AM CDT SAT NOV 1 2025
QUIET WEATHER WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MUCH OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST
WITH TEMPERATURES CLIMBING BACK ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS INTO THE
MIDDLE TO PERHAPS UPPER 60S TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. AFTER THAT,
A COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO BRING THE NEXT CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL BY LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. 00Z NOV 1 GFS/ECMWF/GEM ARE
ALL IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT WITH THE SPEED OF THE FRONT...WITH ALL
SOLUTIONS PUSHING IT INTO THE ILLINOIS RIVER VALLEY BY EARLY
FRIDAY MORNING...THEN INTO INDIANA BY LATE AFTERNOON. SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONT WILL BRING BETTER DEEP-LAYER
MOISTURE NORTHWARD INTO THE REGION, RESULTING IN HIGHER CONFIDENCE
IN PRECIP DEVELOPMENT. DUE TO GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT, HAVE OPTED TO
RAISE POPS TO 40% ACROSS THE BOARD. THANKS TO SURFACE DEWPOINTS
CLIMBING INTO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 50S, GFS MUCAPE VALUES INCREASE
TO 400-600J/KG ALONG/WEST OF I-55 FRIDAY MORNING...THEN TO
600-900J/KG EAST OF I-55 DURING THE AFTERNOON. A QUICK GLANCE AT
THE NSSL MACHINE LEARNING SITE EVEN REVEALS A 2-5% CHANCE FOR
SEVERE ON FRIDAY. GIVEN INCREASING CONFIDENCE FOR PRECIP AND THE
CLEAR INSTABILITY SIGNAL, HAVE ALSO ADDED SLIGHT CHANCE THUNDER
FOR FRIDAY. 00Z NBM MEAN QPF RANGES FROM 0.10-0.25, BUT THINK THIS
WILL INCREASE OVER THE NEXT FEW RUNS IF CURRENT TRENDS PERSIST.
BARNES
AVIATION
(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1210 PM CDT SAT NOV 1 2025
AN UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE DIRECTLY ACROSS THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON, RESULTING IN MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES. VFR CEILINGS ARE
FAVORED, BUT SOME MVFR CLOUD DECKS HAVE BEEN OBSERVED AND WILL BE
POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON, PRIMARILY DURING THE FIRST FEW HOURS OF
THE PERIOD. A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE, MAINLY WEST OF
I-55.
TONIGHT, SOME MODELS ARE SHOWING PATCHY FOG. THERE WAS NOT ENOUGH
CONFIDENCE ON THE LOCATION/COVERAGE TO BE OVERLY AGGRESSIVE IN THE
TAF. FOG IS MOST LIKELY IN AREAS WEST OF I-55 (KPIA/KSPI),
INTRODUCED A 5SM BR AT THOSE SITES SUNDAY MORNING. WITH TEMPS
EXPECTED TO BE NEAR OR BELOW FREEZING, THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR
FREEZING FOG TO PRODUCE SLICK SPOTS. HOWEVER, THIS WOULD REQUIRE
THE FOG BEING MORE WIDESPREAD AND THICKER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST.
FOR NOW, PROBABILISTIC GUIDANCE HAS JUST A 20-40% CHANCE OF VIS
BELOW 3 MILES.
ERWIN
ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
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