026
FXUS63 KILX 040438
AFDILX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
1038 PM CST MON NOV 3 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO RAMP UP TUESDAY, WITH
GUSTS AROUND 30 MPH BY AFTERNOON.
- ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THIS WORK WEEK, WITH
HIGHS IN THE 60S TO NEAR 70, WITH THE WARMEST READINGS EXPECTED
WEDNESDAY.
- THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN IS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY (50 TO 60
PERCENT CHANCE) AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE UNLIKELY TO EXCEED A HALF INCH, AND COULD
EASILY BE UNDER A TENTH OF AN INCH (30 TO 50 PERCENT CHANCE).
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 216 PM CST MON NOV 3 2025
A MOSTLY ZONAL/WEST-EAST FLOW PATTERN BRINGING A SERIES OF FAST
MOVING PRESSURE SYSTEMS AND DRY FRONTAL PASSAGES WILL CHARACTERIZE
THE PATTERN FOR CENTRAL IL THE NEXT FEW DAYS. A FEW FAIRLY BREEZY
PERIODS CAN BE EXPECTED. FOLLOWING TODAY'S POST-FRONTAL NW WINDS
THAT SHOULD DECREASE RAPIDLY THIS EVENING AS A BROAD HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE SHIFTS ACROSS THE AREA. A LOW DEVELOPING INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS WILL THEN LIFT A WARM FRONT THROUGH CENTRAL IL MID-DAY
TUESDAY, WITH GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 15-20 MPH AND GUSTS NEAR 30
MPH. 12Z HIGH-RES ENSEMBLE MODELS INDICATE A 30-60 PERCENT CHANCE OF
EXCEEDING 30 MPH GUSTS NORTH OF I-70 BY AFTERNOON. THESE WINDS
SHOULD HOLD ON THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS THE LOW
TRAVERSES THE GREAT LAKES AND MAINTAINS A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT
ACROSS THIS AREA. THE TRAILING COLD FRONT SHOULD REACH CENTRAL IL
WEDNESDAY, SHIFTING WINDS TO NORTHWESTERLY AND EVENTUALLY WEAKENING
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER CENTRAL IL. WITH THE
WARM FRONT TUESDAY BRINGING HIGHER DEWPOINTS INTO CENTRAL IL,
MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY TUESDAY AFTERNOON SHOULDN'T BE NEARLY AS
LOW AS TODAY, REACHING ONLY AS LOW AS 35-40 PERCENT NORTH OF I-74,
AND MID 40S FOR MOST OF CENTRAL IL.
THE NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD
FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS A LOW TRACKS INTO THE GREAT
LAKES VIA SOUTHERN CANADA AND THE NORTHERN PLAINS. ENOUGH MOISTURE
WILL BE DRAWN NORTHWARD TO SUPPORT AT LEAST A BRIEF PERIOD OF RAIN,
AS WELL AS A MODEST FEW HUNDRED J/KG CAPE FOR A FEW THUNDERSTORMS.
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS LOOK TO BE FAIRLY LIGHT, WITH AROUND 10
PERCENT OR LESS CHANCE FOR OVER A HALF INCH AREA-WIDE INDICATED FROM
00Z ENSEMBLES, DUE TO THE FAST PROGRESSION OF THE PRECIPITATION BAND
ACROSS THE AREA. FURTHERMORE, CHANCES FOR UNDER A TENTH OF AN INCH
RANGE FROM AROUND 30 PERCENT NEAR THE INDIANA STATE LINE TO 50
PERCENT IN WEST-CENTRAL IL.
THE NEXT SYSTEM OF NOTE IS OVER THE WEEKEND AS ANOTHER LOW TAKES A
SIMILAR ROUTE INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST, BUT MOISTURE RETURN AHEAD OF
THIS SYSTEM WILL BE CUT OFF FROM THE GULF, AND PRECIPITATION WON'T
EXTEND AS FAR SOUTH OF THE LOW. THUS, CHANCES ARE CURRENTLY ONLY
FROM AROUND 20-30 PERCENT OVER CENTRAL IL, HIGHEST NORTH OF I-74.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE QUITE MILD THIS WORK WEEK, WITH HIGHS IN THE
60S UNTIL FRIDAY'S FRONT ARRIVES, FOLLOWED BY OUR COOLEST WEATHER OF
THE SEASON SO FAR WITH HIGHS ONLY MID 40S TO LOWER 50S BY SUNDAY.
LOWS SHOULD DIP INTO THE 30S TONIGHT AND AGAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH
PERIODS OF CALM WINDS AND THIN CLOUD COVER, BUT WINDS TUESDAY NIGHT
SHOULD KEEP LOWS UP TO AROUND 50. COOLER LOWS WILL ALSO ARRIVE OVER
THE WEEKEND, WITH UPPER 20S OUTLOOKED BY MONDAY MORNING.
37
AVIATION
(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1038 PM CST MON NOV 3 2025
MAIN AVIATION CONCERN WILL BE WITH WINDS, AS SOUTHERLY WINDS PICK
UP TUESDAY MORNING AND FREQUENT GUSTS TO 20-25 KNOTS ARE LIKELY
INTO THE EVENING. WHILE HIGH-RES MODELS SEEM TO OVERDO THE
STRENGTH OF THE SURFACE WINDS AFTER SUNSET, THE LOW LEVEL JET
WARRANTS AN INCLUSION OF LLWS AT ALL SITES FOR THE LAST FEW HOURS
OF THE TAF PERIOD.
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL INTO TUESDAY EVENING, WITH ONLY A PERIOD OF
HIGH BASED CEILINGS THROUGH MIDDAY.
GEELHART
ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
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