795
FXUS63 KILX 041953
AFDILX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
153 PM CST TUE NOV 4 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- BREEZY SOUTHERLY WITH GUSTS 25 TO 30 MPH WILL CONTINUE INTO
LATE TONIGHT. THE STRONGER WINDS WILL BE NORTH OF I-70. A FEW
ERRANT GUSTS OVER 40 MPH APPEAR POSSIBLE THIS EVENING.
- ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY,
WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S TO NEAR 70. MUCH COLDER WEATHER ARRIVES
OVER THE WEEKEND WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 40S OVER CENTRAL
IL SUNDAY AND MONDAY, AND LOWS IN THE 20S SUNDAY AND MONDAY
NIGHTS.
- THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN IS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY (50 TO 70
PERCENT CHANCE) AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE UNLIKELY TO EXCEED A HALF INCH (LESS THAN
15 PERCENT CHANCE) AND COULD EASILY BE UNDER A TENTH INCH.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 153 PM CST TUE NOV 4 2025
WIND RELATED TO A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRAVERSING FROM SD THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES TO UPPER NY BY WEDNESDAY EVENING
WILL BE THE MAIN FEATURE FOR CENTRAL IL THROUGH WEDNESDAY. MIXED
LAYER MOMENTUM SUGGESTS GUSTS TO AROUND 30 MPH DEVELOPING THIS
AFTERNOON. AS DECOUPLING OF WINDS ALOFT FROM THE SURFACE BEGINS THIS
EVENING, MODELS SUGGEST CLOSE TO 45 KT WIND DEVELOPS AT 925 MB OR
AROUND 2000 FT OFF THE SURFACE. IT IS LIKELY THIS WIND WON'T MIX
DOWN TO THE SURFACE, HOWEVER A STIFF GRADIENT MAINTAINING 15-20 MPH
SUSTAINED WINDS FROM THE AFTERNOON COULD HAMPER THE DECOUPLING, AND
WOULDN'T BE SURPRISED TO SEE AN ERRANT 40+ MPH GUST TO THE SURFACE.
THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM LOOKS TO ARRIVE AROUND
GALESBURG NEAR SUNRISE WEDNESDAY, TRAVERSING CENTRAL AND SE IL
THROUGH THE MORNING AND EXITING THE AREA BY MID AFTERNOON. THE FRONT
WILL BRING A LULL IN WINDS, FOLLOWED BY A SHIFT TO NORTH-NORTHWEST
AND MORE GUSTS TO 30 MPH THROUGH MUCH OF WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE
DIMINISHING RAPIDLY WEDNESDAY EVENING AS A HIGH PRESSURE CENTER
MOVES OVER THE AREA.
MORE WIND ARRIVES THURSDAY AS THE HIGH RAPIDLY MOVES OFF TO THE EAST
AND ANOTHER LOW TRACKING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE GREAT
LAKES PROMOTES ANOTHER STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS CENTRAL IL.
SOUTHERLY WINDS LOOK TO PEAK THURSDAY EVENING AT 10-20 MPH WITH
GUSTS 20-30 MPH (STRONGEST NORTH OF I-72) AS A COLD FRONT TRAILING
THE LOW APPROACHES THE AREA. ENOUGH MOISTURE LOOKS TO TRANSPORT INTO
THE AREA AHEAD OF THE FRONT THAT PRECIPITATION DEVELOPS BY THE TIME
IT REACHES CENTRAL IL, AND AT LEAST SOME LOW CAPE UP TO A FEW
HUNDRED J/KG DEVELOPS. THEREFORE, HAVE 50-70 PERCENT CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION (LOWEST FROM AROUND LINCOLN SOUTH AND WEST), AND A
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDER. AS THE FRONT APPROACHES SOUTHEAST IL,
MODELS SUGGEST POTENTIAL FOR SEVERAL HUNDRED J/KG CAPE DEVELOPING
NEAR THE OHIO VALLEY, OVERLAPPING WITH AROUND 50 KT DEEP LAYER
SHEAR. MACHINE-LEARNING ALGORITHMS SUGGEST THIS AREA WILL HAVE UP TO
A 15 PERCENT CHANCE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY AS A RESULT OF
THESE INGREDIENTS. PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS OVERALL LOOK TO BE ON THE
LIGHT SIDE, WITH CHANCES OF OVER A 0.10" AMOUNTS ONLY 40 TO 70
PERCENT (LOWEST NEAR JACKSONVILLE, HIGHEST NEAR THE INDIANA STATE
LINE). CHANCES FOR OVER A HALF INCH ONLY EXCEED 10 PERCENT SOUTH OF
I-70.
ANOTHER SYSTEM LOOKS LINED UP FOR SATURDAY NIGHT, ALTHOUGH MODELS
HAVE A DISPARITY IN HANDLING THIS SYSTEM. NOTABLY, THE GFS TRACKS
THE LOW JUST SOUTH OF THE I-72 CORRIDOR WITH PERHAPS ENOUGH COLD AIR
TO CHANGE PRECIPITATION OVER TO SNOW BEFORE ENDING. EVEN THIS MODEL
HAS BARELY ANY OVERLAP BETWEEN PRECIPITATION AND SUFFICIENTLY COLD
TEMPERATURES. ENSEMBLE MODEL PROBABILITIES DEPICT UP TO 20 PERCENT
CHANCES FOR A DUSTING ( > 0.1" SNOWFALL) JUST NORTH OF I-74 SUNDAY
MORNING, DROPPING TO UNDER 10 PERCENT AROUND 30 MILES SOUTH OF I-74.
PROBABILITIES FOR OVER AN INCH ARE LESS THAN 5% ACROSS THE AREA. SO
IT WOULDN'T BE SURPRISING TO SEE A FEW SNOWFLAKES OR EVEN A SLUSHY
DUSTING, BUT ANY MEANINGFUL SNOW IS UNLIKELY. FURTHERMORE, STORM
TRACK UNCERTAINTY REMAINS, AND THERE IS STILL A DECENT CHANCE FOR NO
PRECIPITATION AT ALL.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE ON THE MILD SIDE THROUGH FRIDAY, WITH
HIGHS IN THE 60S, BUT A SWIFT DROP IN TEMPERATURES IS ON TRACK FOR
SUNDAY INTO NEXT WEEK, WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S SUNDAY, NEAR 40 ON
MONDAY, AND 40S STILL LINGERING FOR TUESDAY. LOWS LOOK TO FALL INTO
THE LOWER PORTIONS OF THE 20S FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY NIGHT.
37
AVIATION
(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1128 AM CST TUE NOV 4 2025
GUSTY WINDS, A FEW MID-LEVEL CLOUDS, AND SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS CAN
BE EXPECTED OVER THE UPCOMING 24 HOURS AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
TRACKS BY TO THE NORTH. WINDS AROUND 2000 AGL WILL BECOME SW
AROUND 45 KTS THIS EVENING, PRODUCING LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR FROM
AROUND 02Z-12Z OVERNIGHT. SURFACE WINDS S 15-18 KTS THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT, WITH GUSTS GENERALLY AROUND 25 KTS AND
A FEW ERRANT 35 KT GUSTS POSSIBLE THIS EVENING. WINDS DECREASING
AROUND 10Z-12Z, THEN SHIFTING TO NW 14-20 KTS WITH GUSTS AROUND 25
KTS BY 15Z-18Z.
37
ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
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