588
FXUS63 KILX 050958
AFDILX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
358 AM CST WED NOV 5 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- BREEZY SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WITH GUSTS 25 TO 30 MPH WILL TURN
NORTHWEST AS A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH CENTRAL IL THIS MORNING
AND SOUTHEAST IL EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. NORTHWEST WINDS TO
QUICKLY DIMINISH TOWARD SUNSET TODAY.
- ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY,
WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S TO NEAR 70 TODAY AND FRIDAY WITH LOWER 60S
THURSDAY. MUCH COLDER WEATHER ARRIVES BY SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S AND LOWER 40S OVER CENTRAL IL SUNDAY AND
MONDAY (MID 40S SOUTHEAST IL SUNDAY), AND LOWS 20 TO 25 SUNDAY
AND MONDAY NIGHTS.
- THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN IS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY (50 TO 70
PERCENT CHANCE) AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH ILLINOIS. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS ARE UNLIKELY TO EXCEED A QUARTER INCH (20-40 PERCENT
CHANCE NORTHEAST OF LINCOLN) AND MAINLY AVERAGE AROUND A TENTH
INCH.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 345 AM CST WED NOV 5 2025
THE 09Z/3 AM SURFACE MAP SHOWS DEEPENING 1007 MB LOW PRESSURE
NEAR GREEN BAY IN EAST CENTRAL WI WITH ITS COLD FRONT EXTENDING SW
THROUGH SOUTHEAST IOWA INTO NORTHWEST MO. SOME STREAKS OF CIRRUS
CLOUDS OVER IL WHILE SW WINDS (GUSTING 20-27 MPH AT TIMES) HOLDING
TEMPS UP IN THE LOW TO MID 50S.
LOW PRESSURE TO DEEPEN TO AROUND 997 MB AS IT TRACKS QUICKLY
EASTWARD INTO NORTHERN UPSTATE NY BY LATE AFTERNOON. THIS WILL
PUSH A COLD FRONT SE TO NEAR KNOX AND STARK COUNTIES BY SUNRISE
AND THROUGH CENTRAL IL DURING THIS MORNING, PASSING THRU SOUTHEAST
IL EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. LARGE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE GULF COAST
STATES WILL CUT OFF MOISTURE RETURN FLOW INTO CWA SO FRONT SHOULD
PASS THROUGH DRY AND NOT EVEN MUCH CLOUD COVER. BREEZY SW WINDS TO
TURN NW BEHIND COLD FRONT WITH GUSTS 25 TO 30 MPH INTO EARLY
AFTERNOON. WINDS DIMINISH QUICKLY TOWARD SUNSET AS 1026 MB HIGH
PRESSURE NEAR THE MT AND DAKOTAS BORDER MOVES INTO IOWA BY SUNSET.
MILD HIGHS TODAY MOSTLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S OVER CENTRAL IL,
BUT RANGING FROM LOWER 60S NW OF THE IL RIVER TO AROUND 70F IN
SOUTHEAST IL. BUT TEMPS SLIPPING DURING AFTERNOON BEHIND COLD
FRONT WITH 23Z/5 PM TEMPS RANGING FROM MID TO UPPER 50S IN
CENTRAL IL AND LOWER 60S IN SOUTHEAST IL. HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTING
OVER IL/KY BY DAWN THU TO BRING FAIR SKIES, LIGHT WINDS AND
SEASONABLY COOL LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 30S. VERY PATCHY FOG
POSSIBLE NEAR RIVERS/STREAMS LATE TONIGHT/EARLY THU MORNING WITH
CAMS SHOWING MORE PATCHY FOG EAST OF CWA IN CENTRAL INDIANA. DID
NOT MENTION PATCHY FOG LATE TONIGHT SINCE COVERAGE APPEARS VERY
LIMITED IN CENTRAL/SE IL.
HIGH PRESSURE TO SETTLE OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES AND MID
ATLANTIC STATES BY SUNSET THU AND SHOULD KEEP MUCH OF CWA DRY
THROUGH EARLY THU EVENING. MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES THU MORNING, WITH
INCREASE CLOUDS IN CENTRAL IL DURING THU AFTERNOON WHILE STAYING
MOSTLY SUNNY IN SOUTHEAST IL. BREEZY SSE WINDS DEVELOP THU
AFTERNOON WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 60S. MEANWHILE LOW PRESSURE
EJECTS EASTWARD FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES INTO NORTHERN MN BY
EARLY THU EVENING. THIS LOW TO DEEPEN TO NEAR 990 MB AS IT TRACKS
EASTWARD TO NORTHEAST OF GEORGIAN BAY CANADA BY LATE FRIDAY. THIS
WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT SE INTO NW IL BY SUNRISE FRIDAY AND PUSH SE
ACROSS THE AREAS DURING FRIDAY. WILL SEE CHANCES OF SHOWERS
INCREASE FROM NW TO SE DURING THU NIGHT ESPECIALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT.
HAVE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTHERN CWA LATE THU EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT WITH WEAK INSTABILITY. BEST CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS SHIFT INTO EASTERN IL FRI MORNING, WITH
20-40% CHANCES IN SOUTHEAST IL FRI AFTERNOON. BREEZY WEST TO SW
WINDS FRI MORNING TO TURN WNW DURING FRI AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS TO
25 MPH AS CLOUDS DECREASE BEHIND THE FRONT. MILDER LOWS THU NIGHT
IN THE UPPER 40S/LOWER 50S. MILD HIGHS FRIDAY IN THE UPPER
60S/LOWER 70S (MID 60S OVER KNOX AND STARK COUNTIES IN THE
GALESBURG AREA). UNFORTUNATELY RAINFALL AMOUNTS ONLY LOOK TO
AVERAGE AROUND A TENTH INCH, WITH JUST 20-40% CHANCES OF QUARTER
INCH OR MORE NORTHEAST OF LINCOLN IN AREAS THAT GET THOSE ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS.
WINDS DIMINISH DURING FRI EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES INTO
THE MID MS RIVER VALLEY BY DAWN SATURDAY. LOWS FRI NIGHT IN THE
MID TO UPPER 30S IN CENTRAL IL AND AROUND 40F IN SOUTHEAST IL.
FORECAST MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A STRONG MID/UPPER LEVEL TROF
DIGGING OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN US WITH STRONG UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN STATES THIS WEEKEND. THIS WILL BRING A
TASTE OF EARLY WINTER WEATHER TO CENTRAL IL BY EARLY NEXT WEEK
(SUNDAY/MONDAY). ONE SHORT WAVE PIVOTING INTO IA/IL SAT
AFTERNOON/EVENING TO BRING CHANCE OF SHOWERS THOUGH MOST OF THE
DAY IN SOUTHEAST IL SHOULD BE DRY. SEASONABLE HIGHS SATURDAY IN
THE MID 50S NORTHERN CWA AND LOWER 60S FROM SPRINGFIELD, DECATUR
AND TERRE HAUTE SOUTH. COLD FRONT PUSHING THRU THE IL RIVER
VALLEY LATE SAT AFTERNOON TO PUSH THRU REST OF CWA DURING SAT
NIGHT AND BRINGING IN MUCH COLDER AIR STARTING SAT NIGHT. WILL
LIKELY SEE SOME SNOW MIX IN WITH THE RAIN SHOWERS DURING OVERNIGHT
SAT NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING (BEFORE PCPN CHANCES
END/SHIFT EAST OF CWA) ESPECIALLY FROM I-74 NORTH. CURRENTLY ONLY
10-20% CHANCE OF OVER A TENTH INCH OF SNOW ACCUMULATIONS FROM I-74
NORTHEAST, WITH BETTER CHANCES NE OF CWA.
STRONG STORM SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES BY SUNSET
SUNDAY WHILE ANOTHER CUTOFF LOW/SHORT WAVE TROF DIGS DOWN INTO THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST IL. MODELS KEEP BRUNT OF QPF
EAST AND NE OF CWA ON SUNDAY THOUGH COULD SEE SOME FLURRIES
ESPECIALLY NE CWA. BRISK NW WINDS ON SUNDAY AND WNW WINDS MONDAY
BRING IN MUCH COLD AIR. HIGHS SUNDAY IN THE UPPER 30S/LOWER 40S
CENTRAL IL WITH MID 40S IN SOUTHEAST IL. CHILLY HIGHS AGAIN
MONDAY IN UPPER 30S/LOWER 40S, COLDEST NE CWA. WIDESPREAD HARD
FREEZE SUNDAY AND MON NIGHTS WITH LOWS 20-25F. THE LAST TIME IT
WAS THIS COLD OR COLDER WAS MARCH 2ND OVER CENTRAL/SE IL.
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE THEN MOVES INTO THE LOWER MS AND TN RIVER
VALLEY TUE WITH SW BREEZES STARTING TO WARM TEMPS BACK UP, INTO
UPPER 40S/LOWER 50S TUE AND MID TO UPPER 50S WED, WITH SW CWA NEAR
60 DEGF. DRY WEATHER EXPECTED MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER (CPC) 8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR NOV 12-18TH
HAS A 55-65% CHANCE OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES OVER IL, AND A
35-40% CHANCE OF ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION (HIGHEST IN NW IL).
07
AVIATION
(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1036 PM CST TUE NOV 4 2025
REGIONAL DOPPLER RADARS SHOW A 40-45 KNOT JET AT 2000 FEET,
EXTENDING FROM SOUTHWEST MISSOURI TO SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN LATE
THIS EVENING, WHICH WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT SOUTHEASTWARD OVERNIGHT.
WILL KEEP THE LLWS MENTION GOING IN THE TAF'S UNTIL ABOUT 11-12Z.
SURFACE GUSTS HAVE BEEN MORE VARIABLE, WITH SOME 25-30 KNOT GUSTS
OVER EAST CENTRAL ILLINOIS, BUT SUSTAINED WINDS FURTHER WEST
TOWARD KSPI/KPIA ARE STILL ABOVE 10 KNOTS. WIND DIRECTIONS WILL
SWING AROUND TO THE NORTHWEST WITH A FRONTAL PASSAGE, WHICH SHOULD
BE NEAR KPIA TOWARD 13-14Z AND REACHING KCMI TOWARD 16Z. GUSTS
20-25 MPH BEHIND IT WILL BE COMMON UNTIL AROUND SUNSET, WHEN HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST.
VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING.
GEELHART
ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page