908
FXUS63 KILX 061728
AFDILX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
1128 AM CST THU NOV 6 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- CONDITIONS TURN BLUSTERY AND SHARPLY COLDER SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY AS WE GET A TASTE OF EARLY WINTER WEATHER EARLY NEXT
WEEK. EXPECT A FREEZE BY DAWN SUNDAY OVER CENTRAL IL, WITH A
WIDESPREAD HARD FREEZE ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST IL SUNDAY
AND MONDAY NIGHT, WHEN LOWS REACH IN THE LOWER 20S, AND WIND
CHILLS DIPPING INTO THE TEENS.
- THERE IS A 50-70% CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION SATURDAY AFTERNOON
AND SAT NIGHT. INITIALLY, THIS WILL FALL AS RAIN, BUT IT MAY MIX
WITH LIGHT SNOW DURING OVERNIGHT SATURDAY NIGHT. THE PROBABILITY
OF ANY ACCUMULATIONS IS LOW EVERYWHERE, BUT THE HIGHEST CHANCES
OF A TENTH INCH OR MORE (20-40%) WILL BE FROM I-74 NORTH.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 345 AM CST THU NOV 6 2025
THE 09Z/3 AM SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS 1024-1025 MB HIGH PRESSURE
OVER CENTRAL PARTS OF IL/IN AND RIDGING NORTHWARD INTO CENTRAL WI.
THIS WAS GIVING LIGHT TO CALM WINDS, WITH SEASONABLY COOL TEMPS IN
THE UPPER 20S AND 30S. CLEAR SKIES OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN CWA,
WHILE BROKEN MID/HIGH CLOUDS OVER NORTHERN IL FROM PEORIA NORTH
INTO EASTERN HALF OF IOWA AND STREAMING ESE TOWARD I-74. PATCHY
FOG FOCUSED IN WEST CENTRAL INDIANA WITH DENSE FOG AT
CRAWFORDSVILLE, IN. LATEST CAMS SHOW SOME OF THE FOG DEVELOPING AS
FAR WEST AS DANVILLE NEXT FEW HOURS, BUT INCREASING MID/HIGH
CLOUDS (WHICH ARE ALREADY MOVING INTO NE HALF OF VERMILION
COUNTY) SHOULD LIMIT COVERAGE.
HIGH PRESSURE TO DRIFT INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES BY SUNSET
WHILE LOW PRESSURE EMERGING OVER THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS TO MOVE
EASTWARD TOWARD THE MN/ND BORDER WITH A WEAKER SURFACE LOW MOVING
INTO FAR SE NEBRASKA BY SUNSET WITH ITS WARM FRONT PUSHING NE
ACROSS AR AND INTO THE OZARKS OF SW MO. WE WILL CONTINUE TO SEE
MID/HIGH CLOUDS STREAM ACROSS NE CWA DURING THIS MORNING, WHILE
MORE WIDESPREAD CLOUDS SPREAD INTO CENTRAL IL DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS SKIES BECOME MOSTLY CLOUDY TO OVERCAST
NW OF IL RIVER DURING LATE AFTERNOON AND OVER REST OF CENTRAL IL
DURING THE EVENING. INCREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT TO DEVELOP BREEZY
SSE WINDS BY AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS 20-25 MPH NORTH OF I-70, AND
SOUTHERLY WIND GUSTS INCREASE TO 25-30 MPH THIS EVENING OVER
CENTRAL IL. THIS DUE TO SW LOW LEVEL JET DEVELOP DURING THE
EVENING SIMILAR TO WHAT WE SAW THIS PAST TUE NIGHT AS 950 MB WINDS
INCREASE TO 40-50 KTS DURING TONIGHT. WILL SEE CHANCES OF SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MOVING INTO THE IL RIVER LATE THIS
EVENING AND INCREASE CHANCES OF SHOWERS TO 50-80% OVERNIGHT OVER
MUCH OF CENTRAL IL. RAP13 HAS A 200-400 J/KG MUCAPE MOVING
EASTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL IL OVERNIGHT SO ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE AND HAVE 15-20% CHANCE OF THIS OCCURING. SPC DAY1 ALSO
SHOWS GENERAL CHANCE OF THUNDER OVER CENTRAL IL NORTH OF I-70 LATE
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. A BIT COOLER HIGHS TODAY IN THE LOWER 60S.
MILDER LOWS TONIGHT IN THE UPPER 40S/LOWER 50S, COOLEST IN EAST
CENTRAL AND SE IL.
BREEZY SSE WINDS DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS 20-30 MPH
NORTH OF I-70 AND RHS LOWERING TO 25-30%. THE "HOT DRY WINDY
INDEX" (HDWI) WHICH UTILIZES THE GEFS, SHOWS MOST ENSEMBLE MEMBERS
WITH VALUES BETWEEN 50-100 (ABOVE THE 75TH PERCENTILE) OVER WEST
CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST IL. THIS INCLUDES THE IL RIVER VALLEY AND
AREAS WEST OF HIGHWAY 51 FOR THIS AFTERNOON. THE CONCLUSION OF
MOST HARVEST ACTIVITIES IN CENTRAL IL SHOULD HELP LIMIT THE FIELD
FIRE POTENTIAL. THOUGH FIRE HAZARDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE HIGH
TODAY, IT MAY BE BEST TO AVOID BURNING YARD WASTE TODAY SINCE
THERE MAY BE BRIEF PERIODS OF ELEVATED RISK FOR QUICK FIRE SPREAD
BY AFTERNOON.
LOW PRESSURE TRACKS TO EASTERN PARTS OF UPPER MI AND LAKE SUPERIOR
BY DAWN FRI AND PASSING NORTH OF GEORGIAN BAY CANADA BY EARLY FRI
AFTERNOON. THIS TO PULL A COLD FRONT SE THROUGH THE IL RIVER
VALLEY LATE TONIGHT/EARLY FRI MORNING AND THRU SOUTHEAST IL EARLY
FRI AFTERNOON. BEST CHANCES OF SHOWERS FOCUS IN EASTERN IL EARLY
FRI MORNING WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE OVER THE WABASH
RIVER VALLEY. MOST OF SHOWERS EXIT EAST OF IL BY EARLY FRI
AFTERNOON. RAINFALL AMOUNTS AVERAGE AROUND A TENTH INCH OR LESS
WITH LOCALLY TENTH TO QUARTER INCH AMOUNTS NORTH OF I-74. BREEZY
WSW WINDS GUSTING 20-30 MPH ON FRIDAY AND MILD HIGHS IN THE UPPER
60S/LOWER 70S (MID 60S FROM GALESBURG AND HENRY NORTH).
QUIET WX EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT AS WEST TO NW WINDS DIMINISH UNDER
10 MPH DURING FRI EVENING. LOWS FRI NIGHT IN THE UPPER 30S/LOWER
40S. FORECAST DETERMINISTIC MODELS AND THEIR ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO
SHOW STRONG MID/UPPER LEVEL TROF DEEPENING INTO THE CENTRAL AND
EASTERN US DURING THIS WEEKEND ESPECIALLY BY EARLY NEXT WEEK AND
BRINGING COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON TO THE REGION. A VIGOROUS NORTHERN
STREAM SHORT WAVE TRACK SE INTO THE MIDWEST SAT AFTERNOON/EVENING
TO LIKELY BRING A ROUND OF PRECIPITATION WITH QPF AMOUNTS RANGING
FROM TENTH TO QUARTER INCH (LESS THAN TENTH INCH SOUTH OF I-70 AND
OVER QUARTER INCH AMOUNTS POSSIBLE NORTH OF I-74). HIGHS SAT RANGE
FROM MID 50S NORTHERN CWA TO MID 60S IN SOUTHEAST IL. THEN MUCH
COLDER AIR BEGINS TO MOVE IN DURING SAT NIGHT ALONG WITH BLUSTERY
NW WINDS DEVELOPING FROM NW TO SE DURING SAT EVENING. WE HAVE
CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES DURING OVERNIGHT SAT NIGHT FROM I-74
NORTH, THOUGH LREF JUST HAS 20-40% CHANCE OF TENTH INCH OR MORE OF
SNOW FROM I-74 NORTH. MAY SEE LAKE EFFECT LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES FROM
DANVILLE NE SUNDAY NIGHT. MAIN STORY WILL BE THE VERY COLD AIR
ARRIVING SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S
AND LOWS IN THE LOWER 20S SUNDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. WIND CHILLS IN
THE TEENS EXPECTED AND AT TIMES IN UPPER SINGLE DIGITS. THIS WILL
BE COLDEST AIR SINCE MARCH 2.
BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS ON TUE TO START A WARM UP WITH HIGHS
CLOSER TO SEASONABLE LEVELS IN THE LOW TO MID 50S. HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S WED/THU AND GENERALLY DRY WX EXPECTED
DURING MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS STRONG MID/UPPER LEVEL TROF SHIFTS
EAST OF IL AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES PUTTING IL IN A
NW UPPER LEVEL FLOW.
THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER (CPC) 8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR NOV
13-19TH HAS A 60-70% CHANCE OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS
IL, WITH A 33-40% CHANCE OF ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION.
07
AVIATION
(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1122 AM CST THU NOV 6 2025
10-14 KT WINDS WILL OCCASIONALLY GUST OVER 20 KT THIS AFTERNOON,
WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS INCREASING SLIGHTLY THIS EVENING AS THE
GRADIENT TIGHTENS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. A SHARP TEMPERATURE
INVERSION AND LLJ WILL RESULT IN 25-30 LLWS (PRIMARILY SPEED
SHEAR) FOR A SEVERAL-HOUR PERIOD OVERNIGHT, WITH WINDS AT JUST
2KFT RUNNING 40-50 KT FROM THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST. WITHIN THAT WARM
ADVECTION REGIME, THERE WILL ALSO BE ISOLATED SHOWERS, THOUGH
CONFIDENCE WAS TOO LOW (ABOUT 10-15%) IN THUNDER TO ADD A MENTION
OF THAT. ALONG THE FRONT, A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CEILINGS IS
EXPECTED (60-80% CHANCE FROM HREF) AROUND DAYBREAK FRIDAY, THOUGH
CLOUD COVER SHOULD QUICKLY DISSIPATE WITH DRY AIR ADVECTION
BEHIND THE FRONT BY MIDDAY.
BUMGARDNER
ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
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