241
FXUS63 KILX 070453
AFDILX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
1053 PM CST THU NOV 6 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- SHARPLY COLDER WEATHER WILL ARRIVE BY SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS
DAYTIME TEMPERATURES REMAIN IN THE 30S AND LOWER 40S AND
OVERNIGHT LOWS DIP INTO THE UPPER TEENS AND LOWER 20S.
- THE FIRST SNOWFLAKES OF THE SEASON WILL OCCUR LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL ILLINOIS. NBM
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A LOW PROBABILITY (20-30% CHANCE) OF GREATER
THAN 0.1 SNOWFALL ALONG AND NORTH OF THE I-74 CORRIDOR.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 853 PM CST THU NOV 6 2025
SKIES ARE CLOUDY ACROSS MOST AREAS NORTH OF I-72/DANVILLE THIS
EVENING. THE CLOUD COVER WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE ACROSS THE
REMAINDER OF THE CWA THROUGH THE NIGHT. MOSAIC RADAR IS SHOWING
LIGHT SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG A LINE IN NORTHWEST IL ALONG
THE MISS RIVER AND ARE MOVING NORTHEAST INTO NORTHERN IL. SOME OF
THESE COULD SCRAPE NORTHWEST PARTS OF THE CWA. OTHER RETURNS ARE
PROBABLY JUST VIRGA OR LOWER CLOUDS AROUND 5KFT. NEW HIRES MODELS
CONTINUE TO FORECAST LIGHT PRECIP/SCATTERED SHOWERS MOVING ACROSS
AREAS NORTHWEST OF THE IL RIVER TONIGHT AND THEN AS THE FRONT
QUICKLY PUSHES INTO THE AREA LATE TONIGHT, ADDITIONAL SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE. STILL LOOKS LIKE HIGHEST POPS BELONG IN THE NORTH AS
CURRENT FORECAST DEPICTS. THEREFORE, CURRENT FORECAST STILL LOOKS
GOOD AND NO MAJOR UPDATE IS NEEDED AT THIS TIME.
AUTEN
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 145 PM CST THU NOV 6 2025
A COLD FRONT ANALYZED AT 19Z/1PM ACROSS THE PLAINS WILL PUSH
EASTWARD TONIGHT...TRIGGERING A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS MAINLY THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE KILX CWA. THE ATMOSPHERE WILL INITIALLY BE
QUITE DRY: HOWEVER, A 40-50KT 925MB JET ORIENTED FROM THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS NORTHEASTWARD TO THE GREAT LAKES WILL TRANSPORT RICHER
MOISTURE NORTHWARD AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONT. NAM
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES INCREASE FROM LESS THAN 0.50 INTO THE
1.00-1.25 RANGE OVERNIGHT. GIVEN GOOD CONVERGENCE ALONG THE
BOUNDARY AND THE INCREASING MOISTURE PROFILE, THINK NUMEROUS
SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE ILLINOIS RIVER VALLEY BY LATE
EVENING, THEN WILL SPREAD E/NE ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT INTO
FRIDAY MORNING. 12Z HRRR/3KM NAM/FV-3 ALL FOCUS THE GREATEST AREAL
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS ALONG/NORTH OF THE I-72 CORRIDOR WHERE LIKELY
TO CATEGORICAL POPS ARE WARRANTED. FURTHER SOUTH, THE PRECIP WILL
MORE SCATTERED IN NATURE...SO AM ONLY ADVERTISING 20-40 POPS
SOUTH OF I-70. THANKS TO THE STRONG LOW-LEVEL JET, A SMALL AREA OF
ELEVATED INSTABILITY APPEARS ON FORECAST SOUNDINGS...WITH BOTH
THE HRRR AND NAM INDICATING MUCAPE VALUES OF 200-500J/KG. THIS
WILL BE ENOUGH TO RESULT IN A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER WITH THE
SHOWERS. DESPITE THE PRECIP CHANCES, THE OVERALL RAINFALL AMOUNTS
WILL REMAIN LIGHT. MOST LOCATIONS WILL SEE LESS THAN 0.10, BUT A
FEW SPOTS THAT EXPERIENCE A THUNDERSHOWER MAY PICK UP AS MUCH AS
0.25. A FEW SHOWERS WILL LINGER ALONG/EAST OF I-57 INTO FRIDAY
MORNING BEFORE THE FRONT QUICKLY EXITS AND DRY WEATHER RETURNS
ACROSS THE BOARD BY AFTERNOON. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE CONSIDERABLY
WARMER THAN IN RECENT NIGHTS...MOSTLY IN THE UPPER 40S AND LOWER
50S. HIGHS ON FRIDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE MIDDLE 60S FAR NORTHWEST
AROUND GALESBURG TO THE LOWER 70S SOUTH OF I-70.
BARNES
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 145 PM CST THU NOV 6 2025
THE NEXT WEATHER-MAKER ACROSS CENTRAL ILLINOIS WILL QUICKLY COME
INTO THE PICTURE ON SATURDAY AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER THE
PLAINS AND TRACKS E/NE INTO THE AREA. 12Z NOV 6 MODELS ARE ALL IN
RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT CONCERNING THE TRACK/TIMING OF THE
SYSTEM...WITH GENERAL CONSENSUS TAKING IT ACROSS THE HEART OF
CENTRAL ILLINOIS SATURDAY NIGHT. GIVEN THIS PARTICULAR TRACK, THE
HEAVIEST/STEADIEST PRECIP WILL BE FOCUSED JUST N/NW OF THE CWA
ACROSS EASTERN IOWA INTO NORTHERN ILLINOIS. THE DAY WILL START OFF
MILD AND DRY, FOLLOWED BY INCREASING CLOUDS AND RAIN CHANCES
DURING THE AFTERNOON. BASED ON THE EXPECTED SPEED OF THE LOW AND A
FIRST GLANCE AT CAM GUIDANCE AT THAT TIME RANGE, HAVE OPTED TO
LIMITED POPS TO JUST 20-30% EAST OF THE I-55 CORRIDOR FOR
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE EVERYWHERE DURING
THE EVENING, THEN WILL DECREASE FROM WEST TO EAST OVERNIGHT INTO
SUNDAY MORNING AS THE LOW QUICKLY DEPARTS. QPF WITH THIS SYSTEM
WILL BE A BIT HIGHER...WITH WIDESPREAD TOTALS OF 0.10 TO 0.25. THE
HIGHEST AMOUNTS IN EXCESS OF 0.25 WILL BE FOCUSED ALONG/NORTH OF
THE LOW TRACK GENERALLY NORTH OF THE I-74 CORRIDOR. WHILE THE
ATMOSPHERE WILL INITIALLY BE QUITE MILD IN THE 50S AND LOWER 60S
WHEN THE RAIN SHOWERS BEGIN SATURDAY AFTERNOON, SHARPLY COLDER
CONDITIONS WILL SPILL INTO THE REGION OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL LIKELY
LEAD TO A BRIEF PERIOD OF A VERY LIGHT RAIN/SNOW MIX OR EVEN ALL
SNOW ALONG/NORTHWEST OF A JACKSONVILLE TO CLINTON LINE LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT. SINCE THE STEADY PRECIP WILL BE COMING TO AN END
AS THE CHANGE OVER TRIES TO GET UNDERWAY AND SINCE THE GROUND
REMAINS WARM, DO NOT THINK THERE WILL BE ANY MEANINGFUL SNOW
ACCUMULATION OTHER THAN PERHAPS A LIGHT DUSTING ON GRASSY
SURFACES. 12Z NBM GUIDANCE SHOWS JUST A 20-30% CHANCE OF GREATER
THAN 0.1 SNOWFALL ALONG/NORTH OF I-74.
THE MAIN WEATHER STORY FOR SUNDAY WILL BE THE WINDY AND SHARPLY
COLDER CONDITIONS. NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL GUST 25-30MPH WHILE
AIR TEMPERATURES HOVER IN THE 30S. WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON A
BAND OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW FROM LAKE MICHIGAN: HOWEVER, IT APPEARS
WIND TRAJECTORIES WILL KEEP THE SNOW OFF TO THE E/NE ACROSS
NORTH-CENTRAL INDIANA. WINDS WILL DECREASE, BUT ARE STILL EXPECTED
TO STAY IN THE 10-15MPH RANGE THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. THANKS TO AIR
TEMPERATURES DROPPING INTO THE UPPER TEENS AND LOWER 20S, THE
FIRST SINGLE DIGIT WIND-CHILLS OF THE SEASON WILL OCCUR BY EARLY
MONDAY MORNING. THE COLD/BLUSTERY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
MONDAY AS HIGHS STRUGGLE TO REACH THE UPPER 30S AND LOWER 40S.
AFTER THAT, UPPER HEIGHTS WILL BUILD AND HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
QUICKLY REBOUND INTO THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S BY NEXT WEDNESDAY.
BARNES
AVIATION
(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1052 PM CST THU NOV 6 2025
SCATTERED PRECIP, ALONG WITH LOWER CIGS WILL APPROACH ALL SITES,
WITH MVFR CIGS EXPECTED AT PIA, BMI, AND CMI ONLY...FOR ABOUT
3-4HRS IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. CONDITIONS IMPROVE AFTER THAT
AND WHEN THE FRONT BEGINS TO MOVE THROUGH THE SITES. HIRES MODELS
SHOW SCATTERED SHOWERS AHEAD OF THE FRONT SO HAVE VCSH AT ALL
SITES DURING THE TIME WINDOW WHEN PRECIP WILL BE CLOSE TO THE
SITES. CLOUDS WILL SCATTER OUT IN THE MORNING AFTER THE FRONT
ARRIVES. CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED TOMORROW AFTERNOON, LATE.
SOUTHERLY WINDS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. WINDS GRADUALLY SHIFT
TO SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND THEN WESTERLY AFTER THE FRONT
IN THE LATE MORNING. WIND SPEEDS WILL AROUND 10KTS TONIGHT BUT
THEN INCREASE WITH GUSTS AROUND 20-25KTS OVERNIGHT AND THROUGH
TOMORROW. WINDS WILL DECREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO THE
EVENING HOURS.
AUTEN
ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
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