193
FXUS63 KILX 020721
AFDILX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
121 AM CST FRI JAN 2 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- AFTER A DRY AND SEASONABLY COOL WEEKEND, TEMPERATURES WILL
AVERAGE 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL NEXT WORK WEEK.
- THE HIGHEST (40-60%) CHANCE FOR APPRECIABLE RAIN IN THE NEXT 7
DAYS WILL BE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1259 AM CST FRI JAN 2 2026
***** COOL AND DRY THIS WEEKEND *****
EARLY FRIDAY MORNING, 500MB NORTHWEST FLOW WAS OVER
CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST IL BETWEEN A LARGE TROUGH OVER THE HUDSON BAY AND
A SMALLER SHORTWAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS. AT THE
SURFACE, HIGH PRESSURE IS MAINTAINING DRY CONDITIONS AND LIGHT
WINDS. THE SOUTHERN STREAM DISTURBANCE AND ANOTHER DEVELOPING
FURTHER UPSTREAM WILL BOTH PASS THROUGH THE LOWER-MID MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON, BRINGING INCREASING
MID-HIGH CLOUDS WHICH WILL LIMIT RADIATIONAL WARMING AND RESULT IN
ANOTHER DAY OF SEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW-
MID 30S AREA-WIDE. IN THE WAKE OF THOSE FEATURES TOMORROW, HREF
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS CLOUDS WILL LIKELY (70-90% CHANCE) LEAVE OUR AREA
GIVING US SUNSHINE, THOUGH COOL NORTHERLY FLOW WILL KEEP OUR
TEMPERATURES FROM CLIMBING OUT OF THE 30S YET AGAIN.
***** WARM NEXT WORK WEEK *****
THE SURFACE HIGH WILL FINALLY SHIFT EAST SUNDAY NIGHT, ALLOWING
SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW TO OVERSPREAD THE PRAIRIE STATE TO KICK OFF
THE WORK WEEK. CONSEQUENTLY, TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO CLIMB INTO
THE UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S BY MONDAY AFTERNOON, AND 50S AREA-WIDE (80%
CHANCE, PER NBM) ON TUESDAY. ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE GENERALLY SUGGESTS
500MB HEIGHTS WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL TO MAINTAIN SEASONABLY WARM
TEMPERATURES (40S AND 50S) THROUGH THURSDAY OR FRIDAY, THOUGH
APPARENT IN THE GLOBAL DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE A FEW SHORTWAVE
DISTURBANCES WHICH WILL RESULT IN SUBTLE DAILY TEMPERATURE
VARIATIONS AND VARYING DEGREES OF CLOUDINESS. THERE'S NO CLEAR
SIGNAL FOR PRECIPITATION, HOWEVER, UNTIL LATE IN THE WEEK WHEN THE
UPPER LEVEL HEIGHT PATTERN BECOMES INCREASINGLY AMPLIFIED AS RIDGING
BUILDS OVER THE EAST AND A TROUGH DIPS INTO THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST.
ANY DISTURBANCES LIFTING NORTHEAST THROUGH THE DEEP SOUTHWEST FLOW
OVER THE NATION'S MIDSECTION COULD TAP INTO SUFFICIENT GULF MOISTURE
TO GIVE OUR NECK OF THE WOODS A BENEFICIAL RAINFALL, THOUGH PRECISE
SYSTEM TRACK WILL BE KEY; AT THIS TIME, NBM GIVES THE ENTIRE AREA A
30-50% CHANCE FOR MORE THAN A HALF INCH OF RAIN.
BUMGARDNER
AVIATION
(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1048 PM CST THU JAN 1 2026
LOW STRATUS TIED TO A WEAK SURFACE FRONT HAS RESULTED IN MVFR
CEILINGS OVER MOST OF CENTRAL IL LATE TONIGHT WITH A SMALL AREA IFR
CONDITIONS NEAR AND SOUTHWEST OF KSPI. CEILINGS SHOULD IMPROVE AT
NORTHERN AIRFIELDS AROUND 09Z AND SOUTHERN SITES CLOSER TO 12Z OR
SHORTLY AFTER. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS, THEN BECOME NORTH-NORTHEASTERLY BY MID MORNING WITH
SPEEDS BETWEEN 5-7 KTS.
NMA
ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
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