152
FXUS63 KILX 021830
AFDILX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
1230 PM CST FRI JAN 2 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- FOLLOWING A DRY AND SEASONABLY COOL WEEKEND, A SIGNIFICANT WARM-
UP IS EXPECTED. FROM MONDAY TO THURSDAY, DAILY AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT LEAST 15 DEGREES ABOVE WHAT IS
CONSIDERED NORMAL FOR EARLY JANUARY.
- A MEANINGFUL CHANCE FOR RAIN IS POSSIBLE BY THURSDAY, WITH
PROBABILITIES CURRENTLY BETWEEN 40 AND 60 PERCENT.
DISCUSSION
(THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1214 PM CST FRI JAN 2 2026
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST
AND GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE WEEKEND, BRINGING SEASONABLY COOL
TEMPERATURES. WHILE MULTIPLE DISTURBANCES WILL TRACK ACROSS THE
LOWER-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TODAY AND SATURDAY, KEEPING ANY
ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION SOUTH OF OUR AREA, WE DO ANTICIPATE A
CONTINUATION OF MID-LEVEL CLOUDINESS.
A SIGNIFICANT SHIFT TO WARMER WEATHER IS EXPECTED NEXT WEEK,
DRIVEN BY STRONG LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION AND SUBSEQUENT MID-LEVEL
HEIGHT INCREASES OVER THE MIDWEST. DRY CONDITIONS SHOULD PERSIST,
ALTHOUGH WE ARE MONITORING TWO BRIEF PERIODS -- SUNDAY NIGHT AND
AGAIN ON TUESDAY NIGHT -- FOR THE POTENTIAL OF LIGHT PRECIP AS
DISTURBANCES CROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THE CURRENT
PROBABILITY OF PRECIP DURING EITHER PERIOD IS LOW (LESS THAN 15%)
FOR OUR AREA. RESIDUAL LOW-LEVEL DRY AIR WILL BE THE MAIN FACTOR
PREVENTING MEANINGFUL PRECIP, BUT ANY GREATER PUSH OF MOISTENING
WITHIN THE BROAD WARM ADVECTION PATTERN COULD SUPPORT SOME
SPRINKLE OR DRIZZLE ACTIVITY, AND IS WORTH MONITORING.
DAILY AVERAGE TEMPERATURES FROM MONDAY TO THURSDAY ARE FORECAST
TO BE APPROXIMATELY 15 DEGF ABOVE EARLY JANUARY NORMS. HIGHS ARE
EXPECTED IN THE LOW-TO-MID 50S, WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS COOLING TO THE
MID 30S.
OUR NEXT NOTABLE CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION IS ON THURSDAY, WITH A
ROBUST MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH PIVOTING AND LIFTING ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS SYSTEM IS ANTICIPATED TO DRAW IN PACIFIC AND
GULF MOISTURE, INCREASING THE PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS
PARTS OF THE MIDWEST. CURRENT GUIDANCE, INCLUDING THE NBM AND
OTHER ENSEMBLES, SUGGESTS A MEDIUM PROBABILITY (40–60%) OF
PRECIPITATION, WITH A MEAN QPF BETWEEN 0.4-0.6 INCHES.
AS THE LATE WEEK SYSTEM RE-INTRODUCES HIGHER HUMIDITY AND PLENTY
OF WIND SHEAR TO THE REGION, THE PROSPECT FOR STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS LOOMS.
MJA
AVIATION
(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1123 AM CST FRI JAN 2 2026
SHORT-TERM MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO STRUGGLE RESOLVING THE
EVOLUTION OF LOW CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON. IF ANY, THE NBM SEEMS TO
HAVE THE BEST HANDLE ON THE CURRENT SITUATION, AND SUGGESTS THAT
MVFR CEILINGS LINGER ACROSS THE REGIONAL TERMINALS THROUGH ABOUT
22Z, SPARE KPIA, WHICH KEEPS MVFR CEILINGS NEARBY THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD. EVEN ONCE WE ERODE MVFR CONDITIONS, BROKEN
CEILINGS BETWEEN 5-10 KFT ARE FORECAST TO PERSIST THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THIS TAF CYCLE, PERHAPS SCATTERING OUT BY MIDDAY
SATURDAY.
SURFACE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN A GENTLE NNE COMPONENT
THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON, UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE.
MJA
ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
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