764
FXUS63 KILX 030750
AFDILX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
150 AM CST SAT JAN 3 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- AFTER A DRY AND SEASONABLY COOL WEEKEND, MILD CONDITIONS ARE
FORECAST DURING THE WORK WEEK WITH DAILY HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE
50S.
- AMIDST PERSISTENT DROUGHT CONDITIONS, THE HIGHEST (50-60%)
CHANCE FOR BENEFICIAL RAINFALL WILL BE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 143 AM CST SAT JAN 3 2026
***** COOL AND DRY THIS WEEKEND *****
EARLY SATURDAY MORNING, WATER VAPOR SATELLITE REVEALED A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH DRIFTING SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.
NORTHEAST OF THIS FEATURE, GENTLE NORTH-NORTHEAST WINDS ARE
MAINTAINING SEASONABLY DRY AND COOL CONDITIONS OVER CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEAST IL, THOUGH PERSISTENT MID TO HIGH CLOUDS HAVE HELD OUR
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 20S. HREF GUIDANCE STILL SUGGESTS THERE WILL
BE A 70-90% CHANCE FOR A BREAK IN THESE CLOUDS LATE MORNING-EARLY
AFTERNOON SOUTH OF ROUGHLY I-74 AS THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE
PULLS AWAY TO THE SOUTH, BUT THEN ANOTHER WEAK FEATURE WILL BRING A
SECOND WAVE OF CLOUDS DOWN FROM THE NORTHWEST MID-LATE AFTERNOON.
THOSE LOOK TO CLEAR AREAS NORTHEAST OF A MACOMB TO PARIS LINE BY
DAWN SUNDAY MORNING, ALLOWING BETTER RADIATIONAL COOLING FOR SOME
LOCATIONS TO DROP INTO THE UPPER TEENS.
***** WARM NEXT WORK WEEK *****
THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RESPONSIBLE FOR OUR SEASONABLY COOL AND
DRY WEEKEND WILL FINALLY SHIFT EAST SUNDAY NIGHT, ALLOWING SOUTHERLY
RETURN FLOW TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION TO START THE WORK WEEK.
CONSEQUENTLY, TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 40S
TO LOW 50S MONDAY AFTERNOON, AND 50S AREA-WIDE (80% CHANCE, PER NBM)
BY TUESDAY. ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE GENERALLY SUGGESTS 500MB HEIGHTS WILL
REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL TO MAINTAIN SEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES
(GENERALLY IN THE 50S) THROUGH FRIDAY, THOUGH APPARENT IN THE GLOBAL
DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE A FEW SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES WHICH WILL
RESULT IN SUBTLE DAILY TEMPERATURE VARIATIONS AND VARYING DEGREES OF
CLOUDINESS. THE MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY TIMEFRAME IS OF
PARTICULAR INTEREST, GIVEN THE NAM ADVERTISES (NEARLY) SATURATED LOW
LEVELS (RH>85% FROM 0-1KM), REDUCED VISIBILITIES, AND LESS THAN A 5%
PROBABILITY OF CLOUD ICE IN THE WARM ADVECTION WING AHEAD OF A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH - INDICATING FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR DRIZZLE.
HOWEVER, THE BEST OPPORTUNITY FOR APPRECIABLE RAINFALL ISN'T SLATED
TO ARRIVE UNTIL THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY WHEN DEEP SOUTHWEST FLOW
OVERSPREADS THE MISSISSIPPI, TENNESSEE, AND OHIO VALLEYS AHEAD OF A
MORE POTENT TROUGH IN THE GREAT PLAINS. MODEL TO MODEL AND RUN TO
RUN DIFFERENCES PERSIST IN GLOBAL MODELS' DEPICTIONS OF THE TRACK
AND STRENGTH OF ANY SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING ALONG THE COLD FRONT
FORECAST TO REACH OUR AREA SOMETIME FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT, SO IT
REMAINS UNCLEAR WHETHER SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY WILL MATERIALIZE FOR
A SEVERE WEATHER RISK OR EVEN THUNDERSTORMS THIS FAR NORTH. HOWEVER,
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT, THE LREF AND NBM ADVERTISE A 30-50%
CHANCE (HIGHEST EAST) FOR MORE THAN A HALF INCH OF RAINFALL -
PERHAPS PREVENTING DROUGHT CONDITIONS FROM WORSENING.
BUMGARDNER
AVIATION
(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1055 PM CST FRI JAN 2 2026
HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS IN PLACE THROUGH
SATURDAY. SEVERAL DISTURBANCES TRACKING TO OUR NORTH AND SOUTH
THE NEXT FEW DAYS WILL LEAD TO THE CONTINUATION OF MID- TO HIGH-
LEVEL CLOUDINESS. OTHERWISE, VFR CONDTIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH
THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.
NMA
ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
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