548
FXUS63 KILX 041924
AFDILX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
124 PM CST SUN JAN 4 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE ENTIRE
FORECAST PERIOD.
- THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD RAINFALL WILL
MATERIALIZE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. THE 12Z NBM SUGGESTS A HIGH
PROBABILITY (60-70% CHANCE) OF GREATER THAN 0.50 ALONG AND
SOUTHEAST OF A CHAMPAIGN TO TAYLORVILLE LINE.
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 124 PM CST SUN JAN 4 2026
A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH EVIDENT ON 1830Z/1230PM WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVER
THE DAKOTAS WILL TRACK EASTWARD INTO THE GREAT LAKES TONIGHT.
WHILE LOW CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE
WILL REMAIN WELL NORTH OF CENTRAL ILLINOIS ACROSS WISCONSIN INTO
MICHIGAN, A PLUME OF MID/HIGH CLOUDS WILL DRIFT ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH EARLY EVENING. CLEARING IS ALREADY NOTED ACROSS MUCH OF
NEBRASKA AND KANSAS AND THIS CLEARING WILL WORK ITS WAY EASTWARD
INTO THE ILLINOIS RIVER VALLEY EARLY THIS EVENING, THEN FURTHER
EAST TO THE INDIANA BORDER TOWARD MIDNIGHT. DESPITE THE CLEARING
SKIES, LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER THAN LAST
NIGHT THANKS TO S/SW WINDS GUSTING 15-20MPH.
WAA WILL CONTINUE INTO MONDAY HELPING PUSH AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES
WELL ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. THE MAIN FORECAST
CHALLENGE WILL BE HOW MUCH CLOUD COVER WILL DEVELOP. WHILE NAM
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW LOW CLOUDS BECOMING WIDESPREAD ACROSS AT
LEAST THE NORTHERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE KILX CWA, OTHER MODELS SUCH
AS THE GFS SUGGEST CONSIDERABLY LESS CLOUD COVER. THE LATEST
HRRR/RAP CONTINUES TO FOCUS THE GREATEST LOW CLOUD COVER NORTH OF
I-74...WITH MAINLY HIGH/THIN CLOUDS FURTHER SOUTH. DUE TO THE
MODEL SPREAD CONCERNING CLOUD COVERAGE, A 5-DEGREE DIFFERENCE
EXISTS BETWEEN NAM VS GFS HIGH TEMP FORECASTS. BASED ON WHAT IS
CURRENTLY OCCURRING UPSTREAM AND A CLEAR SIGNAL FOR MORE CLOUD
COVER FURTHER NORTH ACROSS NORTHERN ILLINOIS, HAVE USED A MIX OF
NBM AND CONSSHORT FOR HIGHS...RANGING FROM THE MIDDLE 40S NORTH OF
PEORIA TO THE MIDDLE 50S SOUTH OF I-70.
BARNES
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 124 PM CST SUN JAN 4 2026
AS A SECOND SHORT-WAVE TROUGH TRAVERSES THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT,
SKIES WILL BECOME OVERCAST ACROSS THE BOARD. CURRENT FORECAST
REMAINS DRY: HOWEVER, THE NAM CONTINUES TO HINT AT THE POSSIBILITY
FOR PATCHY DRIZZLE OR VERY LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS LATE MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY MORNING. ONCE THE SYSTEM DEPARTS, SHORT-WAVE RIDGING
IN ITS WAKE WILL LEAD TO PARTIAL CLEARING BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON
WITH HIGHS CLIMBING WELL INTO THE 50S AND PERHAPS INTO THE LOWER
60S SOUTH OF I-70. ANOTHER UNSEASONABLY MILD DAY WILL BE ON TAP
FOR WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS ONCE AGAIN IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 50S.
AS HAS BEEN ADVERTISED FOR THE PAST FEW DAYS, THE NEXT RAIN CHANCE
WILL COME INTO THE PICTURE BY LATER THIS WEEK. THE 12Z JAN 4
MODELS ARE STILL IN DISAGREEMENT CONCERNING THE EXACT TRACK/TIMING
OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE MIDWEST/OHIO RIVER VALLEY BY THURSDAY
INTO FRIDAY. BOTH THE ECMWF AND GEM SHOW LOW PRESSURE FORMING
ACROSS THE TEXAS/OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT, THEN
TRACKING NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES BY THURSDAY
NIGHT. BOTH MODELS ALSO DEVELOP A SECONDARY LOW OVER ILLINOIS
DURING THE DAY FRIDAY. THESE SOLUTIONS WOULD BRING WIDESPREAD RAIN
SHOWERS MAINLY THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...THEN AGAIN BY
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE THE GFS IS SLOWER WITH ITS LOW
DEVELOPMENT AND ONLY FEATURES ONE WAVE...MOVING SLOWLY ACROSS
CENTRAL ILLINOIS ON FRIDAY. THIS PARTICULAR SOLUTION WOULD KEEP
THURSDAY COMPLETELY DRY, FOLLOWED BY SHOWERS THURSDAY NIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY. WITH SUCH SIGNIFICANT MODEL DISCREPANCY, FORECAST
CONFIDENCE FOR THE END OF WEEK SYSTEM REMAINS POOR. AT THIS POINT,
WILL FOLLOW THE ECMWF/GEM CONSENSUS MOST CLOSELY...AND WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR LATER MODEL RUNS TO FINE-TUNE THE DETAILS OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. NO MATTER WHICH SOLUTION ULTIMATELY
VERIFIES, IT WILL RAIN ACROSS ALL OF CENTRAL ILLINOIS DURING THE
THURSDAY-FRIDAY TIMEFRAME. BASED ON THE MOST LIKELY LOW TRACK, THE
GREATEST RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY FOCUS ALONG/EAST OF I-55.
IN FACT, THE 12Z NBM INDICATES A 60-70% CHANCE OF MORE THAN A HALF
INCH OF RAIN ALONG/SOUTHEAST OF A CHAMPAIGN TO TAYLORVILLE LINE.
ONCE THE LATE WEEK STORM SYSTEM PASSES, COLDER AIR WILL RETURN FOR
THE WEEKEND...WITH HIGHS DROPPING BACK INTO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER
30S BY NEXT SUNDAY.
BARNES
AVIATION
(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1154 AM CST SUN JAN 4 2026
MVFR CEILINGS FROM EARLIER THIS MORNING HAVE SCATTERED AS A THICK
BLANKET OF HIGH CLOUDS AOA 15,000FT STREAMS ACROSS THE SKY FOR THE
BALANCE OF THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING. 1730Z/1130AM
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE BACK EDGE OF THE CLOUD COVER ACROSS
FAR EASTERN NEBRASKA/KANSAS...AND TIMING TOOLS SUGGEST THE
CLEARING WILL SPREAD INTO THE ILLINOIS RIVER VALLEY SHORTLY AFTER
SUNSET. SKIES WILL THEN REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY
MORNING. THE POSSIBLE EXCEPTION WILL BE KPIA/KBMI AS THE HRRR
CONTINUES TO SUGGEST THE RE-DEVELOPMENT OF MVFR CEILINGS AFTER
13Z MON. THINK THE BULK OF THE LOWER CLOUDS WILL FORM FURTHER
NORTH ALONG/NORTH OF THE I-80 CORRIDOR, SO HAVE ONLY MENTIONED SCT
MVFR AT THOSE SITES FOR THE TIME BEING. WINDS WILL INITIALLY BE
SE AT 5-10KT THIS AFTERNOON, THEN WILL VEER TO S AND INCREASE INTO
THE 10-15KT RANGE THIS EVENING. MEANWHILE A 40-45KT 925MB JET IS
PROGGED TO DEVELOP WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER, THEN TRANSLATE
EASTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL ILLINOIS OVERNIGHT. HAVE THEREFORE ADDED
WIND SHEAR AT ALL SITES. ONCE THE JET PUSHES FURTHER EAST AND
WEAKENS AFTER SUNRISE MONDAY, HAVE DROPPED THE WIND SHEAR AND GONE
WITH SW WINDS OF 5-10KT.
BARNES
ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
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