955
FXUS63 KILX 050357
AFDILX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
957 PM CST SUN JAN 4 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE ENTIRE
FORECAST PERIOD.
- THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD RAINFALL WILL
MATERIALIZE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. THE 12Z NBM SUGGESTS A HIGH
PROBABILITY (60-70% CHANCE) OF GREATER THAN 0.50 ALONG AND
SOUTHEAST OF A CHAMPAIGN TO TAYLORVILLE LINE.
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 124 PM CST SUN JAN 4 2026
A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH EVIDENT ON 1830Z/1230PM WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVER
THE DAKOTAS WILL TRACK EASTWARD INTO THE GREAT LAKES TONIGHT.
WHILE LOW CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE
WILL REMAIN WELL NORTH OF CENTRAL ILLINOIS ACROSS WISCONSIN INTO
MICHIGAN, A PLUME OF MID/HIGH CLOUDS WILL DRIFT ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH EARLY EVENING. CLEARING IS ALREADY NOTED ACROSS MUCH OF
NEBRASKA AND KANSAS AND THIS CLEARING WILL WORK ITS WAY EASTWARD
INTO THE ILLINOIS RIVER VALLEY EARLY THIS EVENING, THEN FURTHER
EAST TO THE INDIANA BORDER TOWARD MIDNIGHT. DESPITE THE CLEARING
SKIES, LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER THAN LAST
NIGHT THANKS TO S/SW WINDS GUSTING 15-20MPH.
WAA WILL CONTINUE INTO MONDAY HELPING PUSH AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES
WELL ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. THE MAIN FORECAST
CHALLENGE WILL BE HOW MUCH CLOUD COVER WILL DEVELOP. WHILE NAM
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW LOW CLOUDS BECOMING WIDESPREAD ACROSS AT
LEAST THE NORTHERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE KILX CWA, OTHER MODELS SUCH
AS THE GFS SUGGEST CONSIDERABLY LESS CLOUD COVER. THE LATEST
HRRR/RAP CONTINUES TO FOCUS THE GREATEST LOW CLOUD COVER NORTH OF
I-74...WITH MAINLY HIGH/THIN CLOUDS FURTHER SOUTH. DUE TO THE
MODEL SPREAD CONCERNING CLOUD COVERAGE, A 5-DEGREE DIFFERENCE
EXISTS BETWEEN NAM VS GFS HIGH TEMP FORECASTS. BASED ON WHAT IS
CURRENTLY OCCURRING UPSTREAM AND A CLEAR SIGNAL FOR MORE CLOUD
COVER FURTHER NORTH ACROSS NORTHERN ILLINOIS, HAVE USED A MIX OF
NBM AND CONSSHORT FOR HIGHS...RANGING FROM THE MIDDLE 40S NORTH OF
PEORIA TO THE MIDDLE 50S SOUTH OF I-70.
BARNES
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 124 PM CST SUN JAN 4 2026
AS A SECOND SHORT-WAVE TROUGH TRAVERSES THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT,
SKIES WILL BECOME OVERCAST ACROSS THE BOARD. CURRENT FORECAST
REMAINS DRY: HOWEVER, THE NAM CONTINUES TO HINT AT THE POSSIBILITY
FOR PATCHY DRIZZLE OR VERY LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS LATE MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY MORNING. ONCE THE SYSTEM DEPARTS, SHORT-WAVE RIDGING
IN ITS WAKE WILL LEAD TO PARTIAL CLEARING BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON
WITH HIGHS CLIMBING WELL INTO THE 50S AND PERHAPS INTO THE LOWER
60S SOUTH OF I-70. ANOTHER UNSEASONABLY MILD DAY WILL BE ON TAP
FOR WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS ONCE AGAIN IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 50S.
AS HAS BEEN ADVERTISED FOR THE PAST FEW DAYS, THE NEXT RAIN CHANCE
WILL COME INTO THE PICTURE BY LATER THIS WEEK. THE 12Z JAN 4
MODELS ARE STILL IN DISAGREEMENT CONCERNING THE EXACT TRACK/TIMING
OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE MIDWEST/OHIO RIVER VALLEY BY THURSDAY
INTO FRIDAY. BOTH THE ECMWF AND GEM SHOW LOW PRESSURE FORMING
ACROSS THE TEXAS/OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT, THEN
TRACKING NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES BY THURSDAY
NIGHT. BOTH MODELS ALSO DEVELOP A SECONDARY LOW OVER ILLINOIS
DURING THE DAY FRIDAY. THESE SOLUTIONS WOULD BRING WIDESPREAD RAIN
SHOWERS MAINLY THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...THEN AGAIN BY
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE THE GFS IS SLOWER WITH ITS LOW
DEVELOPMENT AND ONLY FEATURES ONE WAVE...MOVING SLOWLY ACROSS
CENTRAL ILLINOIS ON FRIDAY. THIS PARTICULAR SOLUTION WOULD KEEP
THURSDAY COMPLETELY DRY, FOLLOWED BY SHOWERS THURSDAY NIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY. WITH SUCH SIGNIFICANT MODEL DISCREPANCY, FORECAST
CONFIDENCE FOR THE END OF WEEK SYSTEM REMAINS POOR. AT THIS POINT,
WILL FOLLOW THE ECMWF/GEM CONSENSUS MOST CLOSELY...AND WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR LATER MODEL RUNS TO FINE-TUNE THE DETAILS OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. NO MATTER WHICH SOLUTION ULTIMATELY
VERIFIES, IT WILL RAIN ACROSS ALL OF CENTRAL ILLINOIS DURING THE
THURSDAY-FRIDAY TIMEFRAME. BASED ON THE MOST LIKELY LOW TRACK, THE
GREATEST RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY FOCUS ALONG/EAST OF I-55.
IN FACT, THE 12Z NBM INDICATES A 60-70% CHANCE OF MORE THAN A HALF
INCH OF RAIN ALONG/SOUTHEAST OF A CHAMPAIGN TO TAYLORVILLE LINE.
ONCE THE LATE WEEK STORM SYSTEM PASSES, COLDER AIR WILL RETURN FOR
THE WEEKEND...WITH HIGHS DROPPING BACK INTO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER
30S BY NEXT SUNDAY.
BARNES
AVIATION
(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 957 PM CST SUN JAN 4 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH JUST
A FEW TO SCT MID/HIGH CLOUDS PINWHEELING THROUGH AT TIMES. A 45
KT LOW-LEVEL JET WILL BRING A FEW HOURS OF LLWS TO ALL TERMINALS
BETWEEN ROUGHLY 06-10Z. HIGHER RESOLUTION GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO
STRUGGLE WITH CEILING FORECASTS, THOUGH THE LIKELIHOOD OF MVFR
CEILINGS AT NORTHERN AIRFIELDS MONDAY MORNING APPEARS RELATIVELY
LOW (<30%). BRISK SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS WITH BECOME LIGHT AND BACK
TO THE SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.
NMA
ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
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