597
FXUS63 KILX 062022
AFDILX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
222 PM CST TUE JAN 6 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- A STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING RAIN TO CENTRAL ILLINOIS ON THURSDAY.
THE LATEST INDICATIONS SUGGEST RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF ONE HALF TO
ONE INCH.
- THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE SYSTEM...PARTICULARLY
ALONG AND EAST OF THE I-55 CORRIDOR LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.
- AFTER A PERIOD OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS, READINGS WILL RETURN TO SEASONABLE VALUES IN THE 30S BY
SUNDAY.
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 222 PM CST TUE JAN 6 2026
1930Z/130PM SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS OVERCAST CONDITIONS ALONG AND
NORTH OF A RUSHVILLE...TO DECATUR...TO PARIS LINE. FURTHER SOUTH,
W/SW BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS HAVE ALLOWED DRIER AIR OVER MISSOURI TO
ADVECT SLOWLY NORTHWARD...RESULTING IN CLEARING SKIES ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN KILX CWA. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY BECOME W/NW OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL HOURS, SO AM NOT EXPECTING THE CLEARING TO ADVANCE ANY
FURTHER NORTHWARD. THE HRRR SHOWS THE CLOUDS REMAINING IN PLACE
THIS AFTERNOON, THEN SLOWLY INCHING BACK SOUTHWARD AS THE EVENING
PROGRESSES. AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OVERHEAD AND WINDS BECOME
LIGHT, IT APPEARS FOG WILL DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING...ESPECIALLY ALONG/WEST OF I-55. CAMS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENTLY
LOWERING VISBYS MOST AGGRESSIVELY ALONG AND WEST OF A PEORIA TO
SPRINGFIELD LINE WHERE AREAS OF DENSE FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE.
CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO ISSUE A DENSE FOG ADVISORY AT
THIS TIME, BUT ONE MAY NEED TO BE CONSIDERED LATER THIS EVENING
IF TRENDS CONTINUE. THE FOG AND LOW CLOUDS WILL BE WIDESPREAD
EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING, BUT AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST OF THE
REGION AND SOUTHWESTERLY RETURN FLOW INCREASES, CONDITIONS WILL
RAPIDLY IMPROVE FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST TOWARD MIDDAY. BASED
ON FORECAST SOUNDINGS, AFTER A CLOUDY/FOGGY MORNING...SKIES WILL
BECOME SUNNY ACROSS THE BOARD BY AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
CLIMB INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 50S.
BARNES
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 222 PM CST TUE JAN 6 2026
12Z JAN 6 MODELS HAVE ALL SHIFTED THE END OF WEEK LOW TRACK A BIT
FURTHER WEST...WITH CONSENSUS TAKING IT INTO EASTERN IOWA BY 00Z
FRI. THIS PARTICULAR TRACK WOULD PUT ALL OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST
ILLINOIS SOLIDLY IN THE WARM SECTOR AND SUBSEQUENTLY INCREASE THE
THUNDER CHANCES THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE TYPICAL COOL-
SEASON LOW CAPE/HIGH SHEAR ENVIRONMENT WILL BE IN PLACE WITH 12Z
NAM INDICATING MUCAPES OF 50-100J/KG AND 0-6KM BULK SHEAR OF
60-70KT. DESPITE THE WEAK INSTABILITY, FORCING ALONG/AHEAD OF THE
LOW AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT AND THE COPIOUS WIND SHEAR WILL
BE ENOUGH TO TRIGGER A FEW POTENTIALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS. THE
LATEST SPC DAY 3 OUTLOOK PLACES ALL OF CENTRAL ILLINOIS IN THE
GENERAL THUNDER CATEGORY...WITH A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE
ALONG/SOUTH OF A LITCHFIELD TO FLORA LINE. THINK THIS RISK AREA
WILL EVENTUALLY BE EXPANDED FURTHER NORTHEASTWARD, MAINLY
ALONG/EAST OF THE I-55 CORRIDOR WHERE NSSL AND COLORADO STATE
MACHINE LEARNING ALGORITHMS INDICATE THE HIGHEST PROBABILITY OF
SEVERE. THIS CONVECTIVE EVENT DIFFERS FROM THE RECENT DECEMBER
28TH EVENT MAINLY DUE TO THE TIMING. WITH CONVECTION DEVELOPING
LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING, THE LIMITED INSTABILITY
WILL BE WANING. AS SUCH, THINK THE PRIMARY RISK WILL BE SCATTERED
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.
ONCE THE LOW LIFTS INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND PULLS A COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE AREA, A MILD AND MOSTLY DRY DAY WILL BE ON TAP FOR
FRIDAY BEFORE A SECONDARY WAVE FORMS ALONG THE SLOWLY DEPARTING
BOUNDARY FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. SINCE THE INITIAL WAVE
APPEARS TO BE TRACKING FURTHER WEST THAN ORIGINALLY FORECAST,
THINK THE SECOND WAVE WILL DO LIKEWISE. THIS WILL LEAD TO A WARMER
SITUATION WITH MOSTLY LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY MORNING BEFORE ENOUGH COLD AIR ARRIVES TO CREATE A
RAIN/SNOW MIX ALONG/WEST OF I-57 DURING THE AFTERNOON. GIVEN THE
WARM/WET GROUND AND INITIALLY WARM AIR TEMPS, LITTLE TO NO SNOW
ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED. AFTER THE SECOND WAVE EXITS, COLD AND
DRY WEATHER WILL RETURN FOR SUNDAY WITH HIGHS REMAINING IN THE
30S. FURTHER OUT, CONDITIONS WILL QUICKLY MODERATE BY EARLY NEXT
WEEK WITH HIGHS CLIMBING BACK INTO THE 40S FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
BARNES
AVIATION
(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1158 AM CST TUE JAN 6 2026
CHALLENGING AVIATION FORECAST TODAY PRIMARILY DUE TO CEILINGS. THE
LOW CLOUDS WERE SLOWER TO SPREAD INTO CENTRAL ILLINOIS THIS MORNING
THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST: HOWEVER, 17Z/11AM OBS NOW SHOW MVFR
CEILINGS AT ALL SITES EAST OF THE ILLINOIS RIVER AND IFR ALONG AND
WEST OF THE RIVER. THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE CLOUD COVER IS
CURRENTLY ALONG A KHAE TO K1H2 LINE AND WITH W/SW BOUNDARY LAYER
WINDS, CLEARING IS WORKING ITS WAY SLOWLY EAST-NORTHEASTWARD.
BASED ON SATELLITE TRENDS AND THE LATEST HRRR FORECAST, THINK THE
LOW CEILING WILL SCATTER AT KSPI BY 20Z AND AT KDEC BY AROUND 23Z.
THERE IS A CHANCE KCMI MAY LOSE ITS CEILING AS WELL, BUT HAVE
MAINTAINED MVFR AT THE I-74 TERMINALS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND
INTO TONIGHT. MODELS ARE SHOWING FOG DEVELOPMENT ALONG AND NEAR
THE CLEARING LINE TOWARD MIDNIGHT...PARTICULARY ALONG/WEST OF THE
I-55 CORRIDOR. AS A RESULT, THINK LOW CEILINGS AND FOG WILL
RETURN TO ALL SITES OVERNIGHT. HAVE LOWERED VISBYS TO AROUND 1
MILE AT KPIA/KBMI/KSPI AND TO 2-4 MILES FURTHER EAST AT KDEC/KCMI
BETWEEN 10Z AND 14Z. AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST OF THE REGION,
SURFACE WINDS WILL BECOME SW AND THE FOG/LOW CLOUDS WILL RAPIDLY
CLEAR FROM SW TO NE ACROSS THE AREA BY LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING,
FOLLOWED BY CLEAR SKIES BY AFTERNOON.
BARNES
ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
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