543
FXUS63 KILX 072109
AFDILX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
309 PM CST WED JAN 7 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- BENEFICIAL RAIN IS FORECAST THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT,
THOUGH RAIN AMOUNTS WILL VARY WIDELY. IN ANY GIVEN LOCATION,
THERE IS A ROUGHLY 20% CHANCE FOR MORE THAN AN INCH OF RAINFALL,
WHICH COULD HELP THE ONGOING DROUGHT.
- THERE IS A LEVEL 1 OF 5 (MARGINAL) RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER WITH
SHOWERS AND STORMS THURSDAY EVENING AND NIGHT. THE MAIN HAZARD
WOULD BE GUSTY TO LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.
- MILD CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TOMORROW NIGHT. SEASONABLY
COOL AND BREEZY WEATHER WILL RETURN THIS WEEKEND, WITH A 50-60%
CHANCE OF HIGH TEMPERATURES BELOW FREEZING BY SUNDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 308 PM CST WED JAN 7 2026
HIGH VOLATILITY IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE MIDWEST FOR THE REST OF
THE WEEK, FEATURING ERRATIC SHIFTS IN TEMPERATURE, PERIODS OF
GUSTY WINDS, STRONG THUNDERSTORMS, AND LIGHT ACCUMULATING SNOW.
THE ACTION KICKS OFF TOMORROW AS A ROBUST SHORTWAVE TROUGH LIFTS
INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND PIVOTS ACROSS THE MID-MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY. AS ITS ATTENDANT SURFACE LOW DEEPENS AND EXPANDS ACROSS
THE REGION, GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL AID IN BRINGING SFC TEMPS
NEAR 60 DEGF AND DEWPOINTS WELL INTO THE 50S. AT THE SAME TIME, AS
TOP-DOWN SATURATION OCCURS BENEATH BROAD JETSTREAK COUPLING AND
DIFFLUENCE ALOFT, WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND OCCASIONAL THUNDERSTORMS
ARE ANTICIPATED FROM AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE EVENING.
HEAVY RAINFALL IS ANTICIPATED DUE TO A COMBINATION OF FACTORS:
STRONG SYNOPTIC ASCENT, UNUSUALLY HIGH EARLY-JANUARY PRECIPITABLE
WATER (PWATS), THE PRESENCE OF CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS, AND A DEEP
WARM CLOUD LAYER. IN ADDITION, THE MEAN WIND (850-300 MB) IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN LARGELY PARALLEL TO THE COLD FRONT, RAISING THE
POSSIBILITY OF TRAINING CONVECTION. DESPITE FAST STORM MOTIONS,
WHICH COULD LEAD TO WIDE VARIATIONS IN LOCALIZED AMOUNTS, THE
SIGNAL FOR HEAVY RAIN EXISTS. THIS VARIABILITY IS HIGHLIGHTED BY
THE MOST RECENT REFS 24-HOUR LPMM QPF, WHICH SHOWS A WIDESPREAD
0.25" TO 0.50", WITH ISOLATED STREAKS EXCEEDING 1.25".
THE RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER REMAINS MURKY GIVEN THE LIMITED
INSTABILITY BUT TOP-SHELF KINEMATICS. RECENT CAMS SUGGEST A BROKEN
LINE OF CONVECTION WILL TRACK EAST ACROSS PORTIONS OF OUR AREA
AFTER APPROXIMATELY 5 PM. A SECOND LINE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS MAY
FOLLOW ALONG THE ACTUAL COLD FRONT OVERNIGHT. A LLJ OF 50 KTS AT
925MB ACCOMPANYING BOTH INCOMING WAVES POSES A RISK FOR ISOLATED
SEVERE WIND GUSTS REACHING THE SURFACE. SEPARATE FROM ANY
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY, SUSTAINED SOUTHERLY GRADIENT WINDS OF 20-25
MPH ARE ANTICIPATED IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING, WITH GUSTS
POTENTIALLY REACHING 35 MPH.
THE THREAT FOR TORNADOES ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT
REMAINS LOW GIVEN THE POOR LINE-NORMAL COMPONENT WITH RESPECT TO
THE LINE OF FORCING; HOWEVER, ANY DEVELOPMENT OF BOWING SEGMENTS
IN THE STORM LINE WILL NEED CAREFUL MONITORING.
A COLD FRONT ARRIVES FRIDAY MORNING, BRINGING POTENTIAL GUSTY
WEST-SOUTHWEST WINDS. NAMNEST BUFKIT ANALYSIS SUGGESTS SUSTAINED
WINDS OVER 20 MPH AND GUSTS ABOVE 35 MPH (MATCHING EPS ENSEMBLE
MEAN), WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS WEST OF I-55.
WINTRY WEATHER AND MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES RETURN BY SATURDAY
AFTER A PAIR OF DISTURBANCES PHASE TOGETHER OVER THE CENTRAL US.
CURRENT ENSEMBLE AND BLENDED GUIDANCE SUPPORT ACCUMULATING SNOW
ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF ILLINOIS, BUT WITH STINGY
PROBABILITIES (10-30%) OF GREATER THAN 1".
MJA
AVIATION
(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1139 AM CST WED JAN 7 2026
FLIGHT CONDITIONS HAVE RAPIDLY IMPROVED THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE
FOG QUICKLY ERODING. VFR CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH
AT LEAST 09Z ACROSS THE REGIONAL TERMINALS. SOME QUESTION REMAINS
AS TO WHETHER ADDITIONAL FOG OR LOW STRATUS REDEVELOPS THURSDAY
MORNING AHEAD OF A LIFTING WARM FRONT. RIGHT NOW, EVEN OUR SHORT-
TERM, HI-RESOLUTION FORECAST GUIDANCE IS OFFERING MIXED SIGNALS
REGARDING THE RETURN OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS BY, OR SHORTLY AFTER,
12Z. WITH THAT FACT IN MIND, WE ARE SUPPORTING A MEDIUM
PROBABILITY (40-50%) OF SUB-VFR CEILINGS BEYOND 12Z. IN A SIMILAR
MANNER, WE ARE SUPPORTING A LOW PROBABILITY (30%) PROBABILITY FOR
SUB-VFR VISIBILITY.
OTHERWISE, SURFACE WINDS WILL MAINTAIN ITS SOUTHERLY COMPONENT
THROUGH THIS TAF PERIOD WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS INCREASING TO 10-15
KTS THURSDAY MORNING AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT, AND BECOMING GUSTY BY
THE END OF THE PERIOD.
MJA
ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
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