306
FXUS63 KILX 080448
AFDILX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
1048 PM CST WED JAN 7 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- BENEFICIAL RAIN IS FORECAST THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT,
THOUGH RAIN AMOUNTS WILL VARY WIDELY. IN ANY GIVEN LOCATION,
THERE IS A ROUGHLY 20% CHANCE FOR MORE THAN AN INCH OF RAINFALL,
WHICH COULD HELP THE ONGOING DROUGHT.
- THERE IS A LEVEL 1 OF 5 (MARGINAL) RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER WITH
SHOWERS AND STORMS THURSDAY EVENING AND NIGHT. THE MAIN HAZARD
WOULD BE GUSTY TO LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.
- MILD CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TOMORROW NIGHT. SEASONABLY
COOL AND BREEZY WEATHER WILL RETURN THIS WEEKEND, WITH A 50-60%
CHANCE OF HIGH TEMPERATURES BELOW FREEZING BY SUNDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 308 PM CST WED JAN 7 2026
HIGH VOLATILITY IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE MIDWEST FOR THE REST OF
THE WEEK, FEATURING ERRATIC SHIFTS IN TEMPERATURE, PERIODS OF
GUSTY WINDS, STRONG THUNDERSTORMS, AND LIGHT ACCUMULATING SNOW.
THE ACTION KICKS OFF TOMORROW AS A ROBUST SHORTWAVE TROUGH LIFTS
INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND PIVOTS ACROSS THE MID-MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY. AS ITS ATTENDANT SURFACE LOW DEEPENS AND EXPANDS ACROSS
THE REGION, GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL AID IN BRINGING SFC TEMPS
NEAR 60 DEGF AND DEWPOINTS WELL INTO THE 50S. AT THE SAME TIME, AS
TOP-DOWN SATURATION OCCURS BENEATH BROAD JETSTREAK COUPLING AND
DIFFLUENCE ALOFT, WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND OCCASIONAL THUNDERSTORMS
ARE ANTICIPATED FROM AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE EVENING.
HEAVY RAINFALL IS ANTICIPATED DUE TO A COMBINATION OF FACTORS:
STRONG SYNOPTIC ASCENT, UNUSUALLY HIGH EARLY-JANUARY PRECIPITABLE
WATER (PWATS), THE PRESENCE OF CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS, AND A DEEP
WARM CLOUD LAYER. IN ADDITION, THE MEAN WIND (850-300 MB) IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN LARGELY PARALLEL TO THE COLD FRONT, RAISING THE
POSSIBILITY OF TRAINING CONVECTION. DESPITE FAST STORM MOTIONS,
WHICH COULD LEAD TO WIDE VARIATIONS IN LOCALIZED AMOUNTS, THE
SIGNAL FOR HEAVY RAIN EXISTS. THIS VARIABILITY IS HIGHLIGHTED BY
THE MOST RECENT REFS 24-HOUR LPMM QPF, WHICH SHOWS A WIDESPREAD
0.25" TO 0.50", WITH ISOLATED STREAKS EXCEEDING 1.25".
THE RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER REMAINS MURKY GIVEN THE LIMITED
INSTABILITY BUT TOP-SHELF KINEMATICS. RECENT CAMS SUGGEST A BROKEN
LINE OF CONVECTION WILL TRACK EAST ACROSS PORTIONS OF OUR AREA
AFTER APPROXIMATELY 5 PM. A SECOND LINE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS MAY
FOLLOW ALONG THE ACTUAL COLD FRONT OVERNIGHT. A LLJ OF 50 KTS AT
925MB ACCOMPANYING BOTH INCOMING WAVES POSES A RISK FOR ISOLATED
SEVERE WIND GUSTS REACHING THE SURFACE. SEPARATE FROM ANY
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY, SUSTAINED SOUTHERLY GRADIENT WINDS OF 20-25
MPH ARE ANTICIPATED IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING, WITH GUSTS
POTENTIALLY REACHING 35 MPH.
THE THREAT FOR TORNADOES ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT
REMAINS LOW GIVEN THE POOR LINE-NORMAL COMPONENT WITH RESPECT TO
THE LINE OF FORCING; HOWEVER, ANY DEVELOPMENT OF BOWING SEGMENTS
IN THE STORM LINE WILL NEED CAREFUL MONITORING.
A COLD FRONT ARRIVES FRIDAY MORNING, BRINGING POTENTIAL GUSTY
WEST-SOUTHWEST WINDS. NAMNEST BUFKIT ANALYSIS SUGGESTS SUSTAINED
WINDS OVER 20 MPH AND GUSTS ABOVE 35 MPH (MATCHING EPS ENSEMBLE
MEAN), WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS WEST OF I-55.
WINTRY WEATHER AND MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES RETURN BY SATURDAY
AFTER A PAIR OF DISTURBANCES PHASE TOGETHER OVER THE CENTRAL US.
CURRENT ENSEMBLE AND BLENDED GUIDANCE SUPPORT ACCUMULATING SNOW
ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF ILLINOIS, BUT WITH STINGY
PROBABILITIES (10-30%) OF GREATER THAN 1".
MJA
AVIATION
(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1046 PM CST WED JAN 7 2026
LOW PRESSURE WILL LIFT FROM THE SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS LATE TONIGHT
TO SOUTHERN WI BY 06Z FRIDAY. AHEAD OF THE LOW, INCREASINGLY GUSTY
S/SE WINDS WILL OVERSPREAD CENTRAL ILLINOIS WITH GUSTS EVENTUALLY
PEAKING IN THE 30-40 KT RANGE LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THE
EVENING. MEANWHILE, CEILINGS WILL LOWER TO MVFR/IFR AS SHOWERS
OVERSPREAD THE TERMINALS. A LINE OF STRONG SHOWERS/STORMS WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE EVENING WITH SPOTTY SHOWER
ACTIVITY LINGERING OVERNIGHT.
DEUBELBEISS
CLIMATE
ISSUED AT 849 PM CST WED JAN 7 2026
RECORD OR NEAR RECORDS TEMPS ARE POSSIBLE THURSDAY. HERE ARE THE
CURRENT RECORDS FOR JANUARY 8TH FOR OUR PRIMARY CLIMATE LOCATIONS
IN CENTRAL ILLINOIS:
RECORD HIGH (DEG F) RECORD WARM LOW (DEG F)
YEAR(S) SET YEAR(S) SET
PEORIA, IL 60 42
1965 2016
SPRINGFIELD, IL 62 52
1965, 1939, 1907 1880
LINCOLN, IL 62 45
1989, 1907 1935
ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
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