136
FXUS63 KILX 081549
AFDILX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
949 AM CST THU JAN 8 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN MILD THROUGH TONIGHT, THEN TURN GRADUALLY
COOLER OVER THE WEEKEND. BY SUNDAY MORNING, THERE IS A 50-60%
CHANCE WIND CHILLS DROP INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS NORTH OF I-70.
- BENEFICIAL RAIN IS FORECAST THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING, THOUGH
RAIN AMOUNTS WILL VARY WIDELY. IN ANY GIVEN LOCATION, THERE IS A
ROUGHLY 20% CHANCE FOR MORE THAN AN INCH OF RAINFALL, WHICH
COULD HELP THE ONGOING DROUGHT.
- THERE IS A LEVEL 1 OF 5 (MARGINAL) RISK FOR DAMAGING WINDS WITH
SHOWERS AND STORMS THIS EVENING, WITH A LOW (2%) RISK FOR A
TORNADO. TIMING WOULD BE 3-8PM WEST OF I-55, AND 5-11PM EAST OF
I-55.
- OUTSIDE OF STORMS, SOUTH WINDS GUSTING 30-40 MPH COULD MAKE
TRAVEL DIFFICULT FOR HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES ON EAST-WEST ORIENTED
ROADS THIS EVENING, ESPECIALLY EAST OF I-55. WINDS WILL INCREASE
AGAIN FROM THE WEST-SOUTHWEST EARLY FRIDAY MORNING, WITH A 30-50%
CHANCE GUSTS EXCEED 45 MPH.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 949 AM CST THU JAN 8 2026
THE LATEST FORECAST IS ON TRACK FOR THE MOST PART. BASED ON THE
LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE, DECREASED CHANCES FOR RAIN LATE IN THE
MORNING AND EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON ACROSS PARTS OF THE EAST.
STILL EXPECT PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS
EVENING...WITH A MARGINAL SEVERE STORM RISK HIGHLIGHTING MAINLY
DAMAGING WINDS AND A TORNADO THREAT. WINDS TODAY WILL BE NEARING
ADVISORY CRITERIA, BUT IT STILL LOOKS LIKE THEY'LL BE JUST UNDER
EXCEPT IN AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS. WILL MONITOR MODEL TRENDS/OBS
AND UPDATE IF NEEDED.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 307 AM CST THU JAN 8 2026
***** RAIN LIKELY (90% CHANCE), FEW STORMS, THIS EVENING *****
EARLY THURSDAY MORNING, WATER VAPOR SATELLITE REVEALED A NEGATIVELY
TILTED TROUGH SHIFTING EAST OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST, WITH BROAD
SOUTHWEST FLOW OVERSPREADING THE ROCKIES AND HIGH PLAINS AHEAD OF
IT. STRETCHING OF THE COLUMN ON THE LEEWARD SIDE OF THE FRONT RANGE
HAS ALREADY RESULTED IN AN IDENTIFIABLE SURFACE LOW ANALYZED BY
WPC'S ANALYSIS IN SOUTHEAST COLORADO. FOLLOWING THE MOST PRONOUNCED
DIVERGENCE ALOFT IN THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF THE UPPER LEVEL JET,
THIS SURFACE LOW WILL SHIFT EAST INTO NORTHERN MISSOURI BY EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON, THEN DEEPEN AS IT LIFTS NORTHEAST INTO EASTERN IOWA
DURING THE EVENING. DEEP MOISTURE ADVECTION FROM THE GULF WILL BRING
PWATS TO RECORD VALUES (FOR EARLY JANUARY) OF 1.1-1.3 INCHES, WHILE
ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE WILL PROMOTE RAIN BY EARLY AFTERNOON. AREAS
ESPECIALLY NEAR AND EAST OF ROUGHLY I-55 MAY SEE A BREAK IN THE
PRECIPITATION DURING THE MID AFTERNOON, BUT THEN CAMS (WITH
EXCEPTION TO THE NAMNEST) GENERALLY DEPICT A WEST-EAST MOVING LINE
OF THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING NORTHWARD INTO WEST-CENTRAL IL BETWEEN 4
AND 6PM, ON THE LEADING EDGE OF A PREFRONTAL TROUGH. ALONG AND
AHEAD OF THIS LINE, THE LATEST HRRR/RAP ADVERTISE 100-150 J/KG
0-3KM CAPE IN A STRONGLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT (0-6KM BULK SHEAR
55-65 KT). THE ORIENTATION OF THIS SHEAR LARGELY PARALLEL TO THE
FORCING SHOULD MAINTAIN A LINEAR STORM MODE WHICH WOULD POSE
MAINLY A RISK OF DAMAGING WIND GUSTS, HOWEVER ANY BOWING SEGMENTS
THAT MAXIMIZE THE LINE-NORMAL COMPONENT OF SHEAR IN THE 0-3KM
LAYER WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED FOR QLCS TORNADOES.
PLAN VIEW DEPICTIONS OF CAM WINDS ARE ADVERTISING SOUTHERLY GUSTS
UPWARDS OF 50 MPH AT TIMES EAST OF I-55 AHEAD OF THE STORMS DURING
THE EVENING, BUT THEY DO HAVE A KNOWN HIGH BIAS IN WARM AIR
ADVECTION (WAA) REGIMES DUE TO OVERMIXING LLJ WINDS DOWN INTO THE
PBL. BUFKIT FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM THE RAP AND NAM SUGGEST THESE
AFTERNOON-EVENING SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INSTEAD RUN 20-25 MPH WITH
GUSTS TO 35 MPH, WHICH IS WHAT WE HAVE IN OUR FORECAST. WE DON'T
COMPLETELY DISCOUNT THE POTENTIAL FOR A SPORADIC GUST OF 45+ MPH,
BUT CERTAINLY DON'T THINK THIS WILL BE COMMON/WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO
WARRANT A WIND ADVISORY GIVEN MIXING WILL BE LIMITED BY CLOUD COVER.
THAT BEING SAID, DOWNWARD MOMENTUM TRANSPORT IN CONVECTION CAN
CERTAINLY MIX DOWN GUSTS TO 60+ MPH GIVEN THE 55 KT LLJ AT 925MB,
SO WE'LL NEED TO WATCH ANY SHOWERS/STORMS THAT DEVELOP AHEAD OF
THE MAIN LINE IN THE WARM SECTOR FOR LOCALIZED SEVERE WIND
POTENTIAL. ON THE BRIGHT SIDE, THE DROUGHT-STRIKEN AREA WILL BE
RECEIVING BENEFICIAL RAIN. THOUGH AMOUNTS WILL VARY WIDELY FROM
ONE LOCATION TO THE NEXT DUE TO THE CONVECTIVE NATURE OF THE
HEAVIER PRECIP, MOST LOCATIONS SHOULD SEE OVER A QUARTER INCH OF
RAINFALL (70-80% CHANCE); IN FACT, HREF/REFS LPMM INDICATES THE
HEAVIER CELLS WILL RESULT IN NARROW STRIPES OF OVER AN INCH
(10-20% CHANCE IN ANY GIVEN LOCATION).
THE SQUALL LINE SHOULD SWEEP EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA DURING
THE EVENING, REACHING THE I-55 CORRIDOR BETWEEN 6 AND 8PM, AND THEN
PERHAPS WEAKENING OR BREAKING APART BY THE TIME IT GETS TO I-57
BETWEEN 8 AND 10PM. IT APPEARS THE STRONG WIND FIELD ALOFT MAY START
TO OUTPACE THE STORMS LATE IN THE EVENING, CAUSING IT TO SLOW DOWN.
AS A CONSEQUENCE, THUNDERSTORMS MAY LINGER SOUTH OF I-70 UNTIL
MIDNIGHT OR LATER.
IT'S AROUND THAT TIME THAT WE'LL BE EXPECTING THE TRUE COLD FRONT TO
ENTER OUR AREA. DUE TO LARGE MODEL DIFFERENCES IN THE DEPTH OF THE
SURFACE LOW AS IT LIFTS OFF TO OUR NORTHEAST, THERE'S UNCERTAINTY IN
THE STRENGTH OF THE COLD AIR ADVECTION (CAA) PUSH BEHIND THE FRONT.
HOWEVER, NBM IS NOW SUGGESTING IT'LL BE SUFFICIENTLY STRONG THAT
DAILY HIGH TEMPERATURES TOMORROW WILL BE ACHIEVED IN THE EARLY
MORNING AHEAD OF THE FRONT, WITH AFTERNOON READINGS LIKELY NOT
REACHING THE 50S NORTH OF I-70. THE OTHER THING WE'LL NEED TO
CAREFULLY WATCH WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG GRADIENT WINDS
BEHIND THE FRONT TOMORROW MORNING. AT THIS TIME YESTERDAY, THERE
REALLY WEREN'T ANY CAMS DEPICTING POST-FRONTAL GUSTS OVER 25 KT,
THOUGH NAMNEST FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGESTED GUSTS TO 30-35 KT. NOW,
FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM VARIOUS CAMS ARE ADVERTISING TOP OF CHANNEL
WINDS AROUND 40 KT IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE FRONT, WITH MEAN PBL WINDS
BRIEFLY EXCEEDING 30 KT. THE PAST FEW ITERATIONS OF THE HRRR HAVE
LIKEWISE TRENDED STRONGER WITH THE COLD ADVECTION PUSH AND RESULTING
WIND GUSTS, WITH THE 06Z RUN INDICATING CONVECTIVE FINGERS WITH
GUSTS SURPASSING 50 KT EAST OF ROUGHLY I-55 FROM 3-6AM TOMORROW.
THIS IS THE OUTLIER AT THIS TIME, SO WE AREN'T SURE WHETHER IT'S
OUT TO LUNCH OR CATCHING ONTO SOMETHING; WE CERTAINLY DIDN'T FEEL
CONFIDENCE WAS THERE TO ISSUE A WIND HEADLINE AT THIS TIME, BUT
SHOULD THE UPWARD TREND IN POST-FRONTAL WINDS CONTINUE IN
FORECAST GUIDANCE THAT MAY BECOME NECESSARY. FOR WHAT IT'S WORTH,
THE POTENTIAL IS HIGHLIGHTED IN THE ECMWF EXTREME FORECAST INDEX
(EFI), WHICH HAS A SHIFT OF TAILS (SOT) INDICATING THE TOP 10% OF
ITS ENSEMBLE IS FORECASTING WIND GUSTS ABOVE THE 99TH PERCENTILE
OF ITS PREVIOUS FORECASTS FOR THE 5-WEEK PERIOD CENTERED ON THIS
DATE.
***** TURNING SEASONABLY COOL AGAIN THIS WEEKEND *****
REINFORCING SHOTS OF COOLER AIR WILL ARRIVE WITH A PAIR OF FRONTS
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT, SO THAT TEMPERATURES WILL FINALLY
RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL BY SUNDAY. IN ADDITION, IT'LL REMAIN
SEASONABLY BREEZY AS THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS BETWEEN A SURFACE HIGH
SINKING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE PLAINS AND A DEEPENING LOW OVER THE
GREAT LAKES. GFS/NAM FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST WEST-NORTHWEST WIND
GUSTS TO 35 MPH (NEAR THE EPS MEAN) SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
LUNCHTIME SUNDAY, MAKING IT FEEL COLDER. BY SUNDAY MORNING, 50-60%
OF LREF MEMBERSHIP HAS WIND CHILLS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS NORTH OF
ROUGHLY I-70. WE'LL LIKELY HAVE SOME SNOW SHOWERS AROUND AS WELL,
THOUGH ANY ACCUMULATIONS WOULD BE LIGHT AND PROBABLY CONFINED TO
GRASSY SURFACES; LREF GIVES A 10-15% CHANCE OF MORE THAN AN INCH
NORTHWEST OF AN AVON TO LACON LINE, WITH SUB 10% CHANCES ELSEWHERE.
GLOBAL MODELS AND THEIR RESPECTIVE ENSEMBLES SUGGEST RIDGING WILL
BUILD BACK INTO THE REGION EARLY NEXT WORK WEEK, BRINGING A BRIEF
RETURN TO SEASONABLY MILD TEMPERATURES. NBM SUGGESTS A 60-70%
CHANCE FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES OVER 45 BY TUESDAY.
BUMGARDNER
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 944 AM CST THU JAN 8 2026
(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 543 AM CST THU JAN 8 2026
LOW PRESSURE WILL LIFT FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO WISCONSIN
TODAY INTO TONIGHT. INCREASINGLY GUSTY SOUTH-SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS
WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA AHEAD OF THE LOW TODAY, WITH GUSTS
PEAKING OVER 30 KT BY LATE AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE, RAIN WILL LIFT
NORTH ACROSS THE AIRFIELDS TO RESULT IN MVFR CEILINGS. A LINE OF
SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL THEN MOVE WEST TO EAST
ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING, BRINGING TRANSIENT BUT
POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT REDUCTIONS IN VISIBILITY, ALONG WITH
STRONG WINDS. BEHIND THESE STORMS, A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS MAY
LINGER INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL THEN SWITCH AROUND TO
THE WEST-SOUTHWEST BEHIND THE COLD FRONT NEAR THE END OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD, WHEN GUSTS MAY BRIEFLY (30-50% CHANCE) EXCEED 40
KT.
BUMGARDNER
ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
UPDATE...KNUTSVIG
DISCUSSION...
AVIATION...
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