294
FXUS63 KILX 081945
AFDILX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
145 PM CST THU JAN 8 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN ARE EXPECTED WITH THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL IS
MARGINAL EAST OF THE ILLINOIS RIVER. HOWEVER, GIVEN THE DRY
DROUGHT CONDITIONS, EXPECT IMPACTS FROM PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN
TO BE MINIMAL.
- THERE IS A LEVEL 1 OF 5 (MARGINAL) RISK FOR DAMAGING WINDS
(60-70 MPH) WITH SHOWERS AND STORMS THIS EVENING, ALONG WITH A
LOW (2%) RISK FOR A TORNADO. TIMING WOULD BE 4-7PM WEST OF
I-55 AND 7PM-MIDNIGHT EAST OF I-55.
- OUTSIDE OF STORMS, SOUTH WINDS GUSTING 35-45 MPH COULD MAKE
TRAVEL DIFFICULT FOR HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES ON EAST-WEST
ORIENTED ROADS THIS EVENING, ESPECIALLY EAST OF I-55. EXPECT
THE HIGHER WINDS TO BE ASSOCIATED WITH SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 145 PM CST THU JAN 8 2026
CENTRAL ILLINOIS FINDS ITSELF IN SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT THIS
AFTERNOON, WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OVER 1" PUSHING INTO
THE REGION. THE 994 MB SURFACE LOW IS CENTERED OVER NORTHEAST KS
AND IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS NORTHERN MO AND INTO
EASTERN IA BY THIS EVENING. ANOMALOUSLY HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES WILL EXIST ACROSS THE AREA FOR THE MONTH OF JANUARY THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE FIRST RAINBAND HAS MOVED THROUGH THE
REGION ALREADY, WITH MORE ON THE WAY. EXPECT THUNDERSTORMS TO
DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE AREA AS WELL, WITH SOME STORMS
POSSIBLY SEVERE. DAMAGING WINDS AND PERHAPS AN ISOLATED TORNADO
OR TWO ARE THE PRIMARY CONCERNS WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS TODAY.
GIVEN THE STRONG WINDS IN THE LOW LEVELS, IT WON'T TAKE MUCH TO
BRING WIND GUSTS OF 45-60 MPH DOWN TO THE SURFACE. CAPE LOOKS TO
BE WEAK AT AROUND 400-800 J/KG BUT WITH STRONG 0-6KM SHEAR OF
60-70KTS.
THE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE AREA BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND 6
AM TOMORROW. LOWS WILL OCCUR IN THE MID TO LATE MORNING HOURS
WITH NOT MUCH RECOVERY DURING THE DAY. EXPECT HIGHS IN THE UPPER
40S NW TO NEAR 60 SE ON FRIDAY.
A SECOND SYSTEM WILL DIVE SOUTHEAST AND MERGE WITH A
SOUTHWESTERN WAVE OVER THE MIDWEST. WE'LL SEE AN CHANCE FOR RAIN
OR SNOW FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY WITH THESE MERGING SYSTEMS.
HOWEVER, NOT MUCH ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. STILL,
COLD AIR WILL CONTINUE TO POUR IN FROM THE NORTHWEST, BRINGING
HIGHS DOWN TO THE LOW 30S FOR SUNDAY.
ANOTHER NORTHWESTERLY WAVE WILL AFFECT THE REGION ON TUESDAY AND
TUESDAY NIGHT WITH PRIMARILY RAIN EXPECTED. HOWEVER, CHANCES FOR
SNOW ARE NOT FAR AWAY WITH THE 0 DEGREE ISOTHERM CLOSE BY AND
MOVING INTO THE AREA. AFTER A BRIEF WARM UP MONDAY AND TUESDAY,
EXPECT A SHARP DROP BACK TO THE 30S FOR WED/THU.
KNUTSVIG
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1139 AM CST THU JAN 8 2026
CIGS HAVE BEEN GENERALLY BOUNCING BETWEEN IFR AND MVFR THIS
MORNING...AND EXPECT THIS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. A BAND OF LIGHT RAIN/SHOWERS WILL LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS
CENTRAL IL THIS AFTERNOON. THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP BEHIND THIS BAND AROUND 21Z NEAR PIA/SPI/BMI AND
AREAS SOUTH...THEN DRIFTING EAST TO NORTHEAST THROUGH THE LATE
AFTERNOON HOURS...AFFECTING DEC AND CMI LATER IN THE AFTERNOON
AND INTO THE EVENING HOURS. PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN WILL BE
POSSIBLE AS WELL...SO MAY NEED TO REDUCE VSBYS WITH ANY
AMENDMENTS. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BE INCREASING ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS...BEFORE DECREASING SLOWLY. WIND
SHEAR WILL BE A CONCERN STARTING LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE
OVERNIGHT.
ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...KNUTSVIG
AVIATION...KNUTSVIG
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