929
FXUS63 KILX 082301
AFDILX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
501 PM CST THU JAN 8 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN ARE EXPECTED WITH THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL IS
MARGINAL EAST OF THE ILLINOIS RIVER. HOWEVER, GIVEN THE DRY
DROUGHT CONDITIONS, EXPECT IMPACTS FROM PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN
TO BE MINIMAL.
- THERE IS A LEVEL 1 OF 5 (MARGINAL) RISK FOR DAMAGING WINDS
(60-70 MPH) WITH SHOWERS AND STORMS THIS EVENING, ALONG WITH A
LOW (2%) RISK FOR A TORNADO. TIMING WOULD BE 4-7PM WEST OF
I-55 AND 7PM-MIDNIGHT EAST OF I-55.
- OUTSIDE OF STORMS, SOUTH WINDS GUSTING 35-45 MPH COULD MAKE
TRAVEL DIFFICULT FOR HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES ON EAST-WEST
ORIENTED ROADS THIS EVENING, ESPECIALLY EAST OF I-55. EXPECT
THE HIGHER WINDS TO BE ASSOCIATED WITH SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 145 PM CST THU JAN 8 2026
CENTRAL ILLINOIS FINDS ITSELF IN SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT THIS
AFTERNOON, WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OVER 1" PUSHING INTO
THE REGION. THE 994 MB SURFACE LOW IS CENTERED OVER NORTHEAST KS
AND IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS NORTHERN MO AND INTO
EASTERN IA BY THIS EVENING. ANOMALOUSLY HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES WILL EXIST ACROSS THE AREA FOR THE MONTH OF JANUARY THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE FIRST RAINBAND HAS MOVED THROUGH THE
REGION ALREADY, WITH MORE ON THE WAY. EXPECT THUNDERSTORMS TO
DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE AREA AS WELL, WITH SOME STORMS
POSSIBLY SEVERE. DAMAGING WINDS AND PERHAPS AN ISOLATED TORNADO
OR TWO ARE THE PRIMARY CONCERNS WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS TODAY.
GIVEN THE STRONG WINDS IN THE LOW LEVELS, IT WON'T TAKE MUCH TO
BRING WIND GUSTS OF 45-60 MPH DOWN TO THE SURFACE. CAPE LOOKS TO
BE WEAK AT AROUND 400-800 J/KG BUT WITH STRONG 0-6KM SHEAR OF
60-70KTS.
THE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE AREA BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND 6
AM TOMORROW. LOWS WILL OCCUR IN THE MID TO LATE MORNING HOURS
WITH NOT MUCH RECOVERY DURING THE DAY. EXPECT HIGHS IN THE UPPER
40S NW TO NEAR 60 SE ON FRIDAY.
A SECOND SYSTEM WILL DIVE SOUTHEAST AND MERGE WITH A
SOUTHWESTERN WAVE OVER THE MIDWEST. WE'LL SEE AN CHANCE FOR RAIN
OR SNOW FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY WITH THESE MERGING SYSTEMS.
HOWEVER, NOT MUCH ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. STILL,
COLD AIR WILL CONTINUE TO POUR IN FROM THE NORTHWEST, BRINGING
HIGHS DOWN TO THE LOW 30S FOR SUNDAY.
ANOTHER NORTHWESTERLY WAVE WILL AFFECT THE REGION ON TUESDAY AND
TUESDAY NIGHT WITH PRIMARILY RAIN EXPECTED. HOWEVER, CHANCES FOR
SNOW ARE NOT FAR AWAY WITH THE 0 DEGREE ISOTHERM CLOSE BY AND
MOVING INTO THE AREA. AFTER A BRIEF WARM UP MONDAY AND TUESDAY,
EXPECT A SHARP DROP BACK TO THE 30S FOR WED/THU.
KNUTSVIG
AVIATION
(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 500 PM CST THU JAN 8 2026
A DEEP LOW OVER NW MO EARLY THIS EVENING WILL LIFT TO CENTRAL
LAKE MICHIGAN OVERNIGHT. AHEAD OF THE LOW, A 50-60 KT LOW LEVEL
JET IS DRIVING AREAS OF SHOWERS AND A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS
ALONG WITH LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR. SOME OF THESE SHOWERS COULD MIX
DOWN STRONG WINDS ALOFT, ESPECIALLY WITHIN A NARROW LINE OF MORE
INTENSE CONVECTION THAT MOVES ACROSS CENTRAL ILLINOIS THIS
EVENING. BEHIND THE LINE OF CONVECTION, WINDS WILL VEER TO THE
WEST THEN NORTHWEST. IFR CONDITIONS ARE IN PLACE AREA-WIDE OUT
THE GATE, BUT A BRIEF WINDOW OF VFR CONDITIONS IS POSSIBLE BEHIND
THE LINE OF CONVECTION AS A MID LEVEL DRY SLOT PUNCHES ACROSS
CENTRAL ILLINOIS. THIS WINDOW WILL ONLY LAST A FEW HOURS BEFORE
WIDESPREAD MVFR/NEAR IFR CEILINGS OVERSPREAD CENTRAL ILLINOIS
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT AND MUCH OF THE DAY FRIDAY.
DEUBELBEISS
ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
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