021
FXUS63 KILX 090607
AFDILX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
1207 AM CST FRI JAN 9 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- A LINE OF GUSTY SHOWERS CURRENTLY EAST OF THE I-57 CORRIDOR WILL
PUSH INTO INDIANA BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND 2AM. WINDS WILL GUST
50-55MPH WITH THE SHOWERS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 145 PM CST THU JAN 8 2026
CENTRAL ILLINOIS FINDS ITSELF IN SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT THIS
AFTERNOON, WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OVER 1" PUSHING INTO
THE REGION. THE 994 MB SURFACE LOW IS CENTERED OVER NORTHEAST KS
AND IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS NORTHERN MO AND INTO
EASTERN IA BY THIS EVENING. ANOMALOUSLY HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES WILL EXIST ACROSS THE AREA FOR THE MONTH OF JANUARY THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE FIRST RAINBAND HAS MOVED THROUGH THE
REGION ALREADY, WITH MORE ON THE WAY. EXPECT THUNDERSTORMS TO
DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE AREA AS WELL, WITH SOME STORMS
POSSIBLY SEVERE. DAMAGING WINDS AND PERHAPS AN ISOLATED TORNADO
OR TWO ARE THE PRIMARY CONCERNS WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS TODAY.
GIVEN THE STRONG WINDS IN THE LOW LEVELS, IT WON'T TAKE MUCH TO
BRING WIND GUSTS OF 45-60 MPH DOWN TO THE SURFACE. CAPE LOOKS TO
BE WEAK AT AROUND 400-800 J/KG BUT WITH STRONG 0-6KM SHEAR OF
60-70KTS.
THE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE AREA BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND 6
AM TOMORROW. LOWS WILL OCCUR IN THE MID TO LATE MORNING HOURS
WITH NOT MUCH RECOVERY DURING THE DAY. EXPECT HIGHS IN THE UPPER
40S NW TO NEAR 60 SE ON FRIDAY.
A SECOND SYSTEM WILL DIVE SOUTHEAST AND MERGE WITH A
SOUTHWESTERN WAVE OVER THE MIDWEST. WE'LL SEE AN CHANCE FOR RAIN
OR SNOW FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY WITH THESE MERGING SYSTEMS.
HOWEVER, NOT MUCH ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. STILL,
COLD AIR WILL CONTINUE TO POUR IN FROM THE NORTHWEST, BRINGING
HIGHS DOWN TO THE LOW 30S FOR SUNDAY.
ANOTHER NORTHWESTERLY WAVE WILL AFFECT THE REGION ON TUESDAY AND
TUESDAY NIGHT WITH PRIMARILY RAIN EXPECTED. HOWEVER, CHANCES FOR
SNOW ARE NOT FAR AWAY WITH THE 0 DEGREE ISOTHERM CLOSE BY AND
MOVING INTO THE AREA. AFTER A BRIEF WARM UP MONDAY AND TUESDAY,
EXPECT A SHARP DROP BACK TO THE 30S FOR WED/THU.
KNUTSVIG
AVIATION
(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1207 AM CST THU JAN 8 2026
0530Z/1130PM RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS CONVECTIVE LINE HAS NOW PUSHED
EAST OF KCMI/KDEC. SKIES HAVE TEMPORARILY CLEARED BEHIND THE LINE:
HOWEVER, A LARGE AREA OF LOW CLOUDS ALONG/WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER WILL QUICKLY PUSH EASTWARD OVERNIGHT...AND WILL LIKELY
LINGER ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. CEILINGS
ACROSS IOWA ARE GENERALLY MVFR WITH A FEW EMBEDDED REPORTS OF IFR.
BASED ON SATELLITE TIMING TOOLS AND HRRR/RAP FORECAST, HAVE
LOWERED CEILINGS TO MVFR AT KPIA BY 08Z...THEN FURTHER EAST TO
KCMI SHORTLY AFTER 10Z. WHILE NAM FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THE
CEILINGS MAY POTENTIALLY SCATTER LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING,
THE HRRR/RAP PAINTS A MORE PESSIMISTIC PICTURE WITH CONTINUED
MVFR CEILINGS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE 06Z TAF PERIOD. GIVEN
THE TIME OF YEAR AND THE CONSISTENT SIGNAL FROM THE HRRR/RAP, HAVE
OPTED TO KEEP MVFR CEILINGS LOCKED IN AT ALL SITES EXCEPT KPIA
WHICH MAY TEMPORARILY SCATTER AFTER 21Z. WINDS WILL INITIALLY BE
SW WITH GUSTS OF 25-30KT, THEN WILL VEER TO NW AND CONTINUE TO
GUST 20-25KT THROUGH THE DAY BEFORE DECREASING TO 10KT OR LESS
TOWARD SUNSET.
BARNES
ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
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