523
FXUS63 KILX 091153
AFDILX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
553 AM CST FRI JAN 9 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- NO MAJOR STORM SYSTEMS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPACT CENTRAL ILLINOIS
OVER THE NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 333 AM CST FRI JAN 9 2026
A COLD FRONT IS MARCHING STEADILY EASTWARD THROUGH CENTRAL
ILLINOIS EARLY THIS MORNING...BRINGING AN END TO THE RECORD
WARMTH. 09Z/3AM TEMPERATURES RANGE FROM THE LOWER 60S ALONG/EAST
OF THE I-57 CORRIDOR TO THE LOWER 40S WEST OF THE ILLINOIS RIVER.
ONCE THE FRONT PASSES, READINGS WILL DROP INTO THE 40S ACROSS
EAST-CENTRAL ILLINOIS BY MID TO LATE MORNING...WHILE TEMPS HOVER
IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 40S UNDER A MOSTLY CLOUDY SKY FURTHER WEST
ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE KILX CWA. WESTERLY WINDS WILL GUST
25-35MPH EARLY THIS MORNING, THEN WILL VEER TO NORTHWESTERLY AND
GRADUALLY DECREASE TO LESS THAN 10MPH TOWARD SUNSET. AFTER A
COOL/DRY EVENING, A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH INTERACTING WITH THE
DEPARTING FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BRING LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS MAINLY
ALONG/WEST OF I-55 OVERNIGHT...THEN FURTHER EAST ACROSS THE REST
OF CENTRAL ILLINOIS SATURDAY MORNING. SOME SNOW MAY MIX WITH THE
RAIN AT TIMES: HOWEVER, NO SNOW ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED. ONCE THE
IMPULSE PASSES, THE SHOWERS WILL TAPER OFF SATURDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING, FOLLOWED BY A SURGE OF COLDER AIR SATURDAY
NIGHT THAT WILL DROP OVERNIGHT LOWS INTO THE LOWER 20S.
BARNES
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 333 AM CST FRI JAN 9 2026
A SERIES OF CLIPPER SYSTEMS WILL PASS MAINLY NORTH OF CENTRAL
ILLINOIS NEXT WEEK...FOCUSING THE BEST CHANCE FOR SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST INTO THE GREAT LAKES. AFTER
A SEASONABLY COOL DAY ON SUNDAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE
MIDDLE 30S, SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF ONE OF THE CLIPPERS WILL
BOOST TEMPS WELL INTO THE 40S ON MONDAY, THEN INTO THE LOWER 50S
BY TUESDAY. LIMITED DEEP-LAYER MOISTURE WITHIN THE WAA REGIME
AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM WILL TRIGGER A FEW RAIN SHOWERS TUESDAY
AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY NIGHT: HOWEVER, RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL
REMAIN 0.10 OR LESS. ONCE THE WAVE PASSES TO THE EAST AND
AMPLIFIES, IT WILL PULL A COLDER AIRMASS BACK SOUTHWARD FOR THE
END OF NEXT WEEK...RESULTING IN TEMPS DROPPING BACK INTO THE 30S
FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
BARNES
AVIATION
(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 553 AM CST FRI JAN 9 2026
MVFR CEILINGS HAVE SPREAD ACROSS THE CENTRAL ILLINOIS TERMINALS
EARLY THIS MORNING, BUT THE BIG QUESTION IS HOW LONG WILL THEY
PERSIST? 1130Z/530AM SATELLITE AND UPSTREAM OBS INDICATE THE BACK
EDGE OF THE LOW CLOUD COVER IS OVER EASTERN IOWA AND STEADILY
ADVANCING EASTWARD. HRRR DEPICTS THE CURRENT CLOUD SHIELD QUITE
WELL AND SHOWS CLEARING REACHING THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER IN THE NEXT
2-4 HOURS. AFTER THAT, IT HALTS THE EASTWARD PROGRESS AND ACTUALLY
BEGINS TO SPREAD THE CEILINGS BACK WESTWARD THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. DESPITE SATELLITE TRENDS, HAVE SIDED WITH THE MORE
PESSIMISTIC HRRR...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW. WILL NEED TO CAREFULLY
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THE CLEARING AND AMEND THE TAFS
ACCORDINGLY. EVEN IF PARTIAL CLEARING IS OBSERVED THIS AFTERNOON,
AN UPPER-LEVEL WAVE WILL BRING LOW CLOUDS AND A FEW RAIN SHOWERS
BACK INTO THE AREA BY LATE TONIGHT. MOST MODEL SOLUTIONS FOCUS
PRECIP ALONG/WEST OF I-55 AFTER 09Z/3AM. HAVE LOWERED CEILINGS TO
IFR AND INTRODUCED -SHRA AT KPIA/KBMI/KSPI ACCORDINGLY. WINDS WILL
INITIALLY BE WESTERLY WITH GUSTS OF 25-35KT EARLY THIS MORNING,
THEN WILL VEER TO NORTHWESTERLY AND BEGIN DECREASING TOWARD
MIDDAY. GUSTS WILL SUBSIDE THIS AFTERNOON...WITH SPEEDS DROPPING
BELOW 10KT PRIOR TO SUNSET.
BARNES
ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
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