042
FXUS63 KILX 091916
AFDILX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
116 PM CST FRI JAN 9 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- A PERIOD OF SNOW IS LIKELY SATURDAY MORNING WEST OF I-55,
FOLLOWED BY SCATTERED GUSTY SNOW SHOWERS LATE SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
- TEMPERATURES TREND SIGNIFICANTLY WARMER MONDAY AND TUESDAY
BEFORE A COLD FRONT RETURNS THE REGION TO MORE SEASONABLE
CONDITIONS MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 116 PM CST FRI JAN 9 2026
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH THIS AFTERNOON AS A
RIDGE AXIS BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. THIS EVENING, CLOUD COVER
INCREASES AGAIN AHEAD OF A SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY TRACKING NORTHEAST
THROUGH THE OK PANHANDLE.
LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING: A SOMEWHAT COMPLEX
PRECIPITATION EVENT IS ON TRACK. 12Z DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE
INDICATES A PERIOD OF INTENSE MID- LEVEL LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
SHORTWAVE ARRIVING AFTER 09Z, INITIALLY SPREADING IN RAIN OR A
RAIN/SNOW MIX WEST OF I-55. SOUNDINGS INDICATE A COLUMN NEAR
FREEZING, WHERE DYNAMIC COOLING IN THE STRONGER BAND OF LIFT WILL
LIKELY DRIVE A TRANSITORY BURST OF MODERATE WET SNOW WEST OF THE
I-55 CORRIDOR (MOST LIKELY NEAR AND WEST OF THE IL RIVER). IF
SNOWFALL RATES ARE HIGH ENOUGH, THIS COULD OVERCOME MARGINAL
SURFACE/GROUND TEMPERATURES, RESULTING IN A QUICK DUSTING TO 1" OF
WET SNOW ACCUMULATION, PRIMARILY ON GRASSY AND ELEVATED SURFACES.
12Z HREF SHOWS A 40-80% CHANCE OF MEASURABLE SNOW (>0.1") NORTH
OF A RUSHVILLE TO BLOOMINGTON LINE, AND PROBABILITIES > 1" OF
SNOW 20-40% NORTHWEST OF THE IL RIVER. SOUTHEAST OF I-55,
PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY REMAIN RAIN OR A BRIEF RAIN/SNOW MIX
BEFORE ENDING BY LATE MORNING.
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING: COLD ADVECTION INCREASES BEHIND
THE DEPARTING WAVE. STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES REACHING 8-9 C/KM
IN THE 0-2KM LAYER, AND RESULTING WEAK SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY
WILL PROMOTE CONVECTIVE SNOW SHOWERS. THESE SNOW SHOWERS WOULD BE
CAPABLE OF LAYING DOWN A QUICK DUSTING TO HALF INCH OF SNOW IN
ISOLATED LOCATIONS (HREF SHOWS 20-40% CHANCE OF MEASURABLE). WEST-
NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS WILL INCREASE TO 20-30 MPH, AND HIGHER GUSTS
WITHIN SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE. THIS WILL RESULT IN BRIEFLY
REDUCED VISIBILITY AND AS TEMPERATURES FALL THROUGH THE 30S.
SUNDAY AND MONDAY: HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES TO THE SOUTH, LEADING TO
A PERIOD OF QUIET WEATHER. WINDS WILL VEER TO THE SOUTHWEST BY
SUNDAY NIGHT, INITIATING A WARMING TREND. HIGHS SUNDAY STAY IN THE
30S, BUT REACH THE LOW-TO-MID 40S BY MONDAY.
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY: SIGNIFICANT MODEL VARIANCE REMAINS REGARDING
THE TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY SYSTEM. THE GFS REMAINS THE PROGRESSIVE
OUTLIER, SWEEPING A DRY COLD FRONT THROUGH THE MIDWEST, WHILE THE
ECMWF AND ECMWF-AI SUGGEST A SLOWER, DEEPER TROUGH WITH AN
ATTENDANT SURFACE LOW THAT BRINGS HIGHER PRECIPITATION
PROBABILITIES. GIVEN THE ENSEMBLE SPREAD, THE NBM SOLUTION
MAINTAINS LOW CHANCE POPS, PRIMARILY FOR RAIN, LATE TUESDAY THEN
ENDING AS A RAIN/SNOW MIX WED. THERE IS GOOD CONFIDENCE
TEMPERATURES WILL REACH WELL ABOVE NORMAL AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM ON
TUESDAY WITH HIGHS POTENTIALLY REACHING INTO THE 50S FOR MUCH OF
THE CWA.
THURSDAY-FRIDAY: COLD AIR RETURNS BEHIND THE MIDWEEK FRONT. THE
ECMWF EXTREME FORECAST INDEX (EFI) DOES NOT SIGNAL ANY
CLIMATOLOGICALLY EXTREME COLD FOR THE END OF THE WEEK, SUGGESTING
A RETURN TO NEAR OR JUST BELOW JANUARY AVERAGES.
25
AVIATION
(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1108 AM CST FRI JAN 9 2026
MVFR CEILINGS HAVE STEADILY BEEN SCATTERING OUT FROM THE WEST THIS
MORNING. TRENDS OFF VISIBLE SATELLITE SHOW KDEC WILL CLEAR AROUND
18Z AND KCMI SHORTLY AFTER THAT. ANOTHER AREA OF MVFR CEILINGS HAS
BEEN DROPPING SOUTHEAST FROM EASTERN IA, AND SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE
SHOWS THIS COULD IMPACT KPIA THIS AFTERNOON SO INCLUDED A TEMPO
GROUP FOR THAT. OTHERWISE, MVFR CEILINGS WILL REDEVELOP OVER THE
REGION TONIGHT AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM. AS PRECIP OVERSPREADS THE
TERMINALS LATE TONIGHT, CEILINGS ARE FORECAST TO DROP TO IFR.
INCLUDED RAIN/SNOW MIX AT THE NORTHERN TERMINALS (KPIA-KBMI), WITH
A LOW (30%) POTENTIAL FOR A COMPLETE CHANGEOVER TO SNOW AT KPIA
AND IFR VISIBILITY. NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS WILL SUBSIDE EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON OVER OUR EASTERN TERMINALS WITH WINDS GOING
LIGHT/VARIABLE THIS EVENING THROUGH MUCH OF TONIGHT. AFTER THE
SYSTEM MOVES OUT MID TO LATE SATURDAY MORNING, WEST- NORTHWEST
WINDS WILL AGAIN INCREASE WITH SOME GUSTS TO 20+ KT.
25
ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
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