785
FXUS63 KILX 092324
AFDILX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
524 PM CST FRI JAN 9 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- A PERIOD OF SNOW IS LIKELY SATURDAY MORNING WEST OF I-55,
FOLLOWED BY SCATTERED GUSTY SNOW SHOWERS LATE SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
- TEMPERATURES TREND SIGNIFICANTLY WARMER MONDAY AND TUESDAY
BEFORE A COLD FRONT RETURNS THE REGION TO MORE SEASONABLE
CONDITIONS MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 116 PM CST FRI JAN 9 2026
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH THIS AFTERNOON AS A
RIDGE AXIS BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. THIS EVENING, CLOUD COVER
INCREASES AGAIN AHEAD OF A SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY TRACKING NORTHEAST
THROUGH THE OK PANHANDLE.
LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING: A SOMEWHAT COMPLEX
PRECIPITATION EVENT IS ON TRACK. 12Z DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE
INDICATES A PERIOD OF INTENSE MID- LEVEL LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
SHORTWAVE ARRIVING AFTER 09Z, INITIALLY SPREADING IN RAIN OR A
RAIN/SNOW MIX WEST OF I-55. SOUNDINGS INDICATE A COLUMN NEAR
FREEZING, WHERE DYNAMIC COOLING IN THE STRONGER BAND OF LIFT WILL
LIKELY DRIVE A TRANSITORY BURST OF MODERATE WET SNOW WEST OF THE
I-55 CORRIDOR (MOST LIKELY NEAR AND WEST OF THE IL RIVER). IF
SNOWFALL RATES ARE HIGH ENOUGH, THIS COULD OVERCOME MARGINAL
SURFACE/GROUND TEMPERATURES, RESULTING IN A QUICK DUSTING TO 1" OF
WET SNOW ACCUMULATION, PRIMARILY ON GRASSY AND ELEVATED SURFACES.
12Z HREF SHOWS A 40-80% CHANCE OF MEASURABLE SNOW (>0.1") NORTH
OF A RUSHVILLE TO BLOOMINGTON LINE, AND PROBABILITIES > 1" OF
SNOW 20-40% NORTHWEST OF THE IL RIVER. SOUTHEAST OF I-55,
PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY REMAIN RAIN OR A BRIEF RAIN/SNOW MIX
BEFORE ENDING BY LATE MORNING.
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING: COLD ADVECTION INCREASES BEHIND
THE DEPARTING WAVE. STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES REACHING 8-9 C/KM
IN THE 0-2KM LAYER, AND RESULTING WEAK SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY
WILL PROMOTE CONVECTIVE SNOW SHOWERS. THESE SNOW SHOWERS WOULD BE
CAPABLE OF LAYING DOWN A QUICK DUSTING TO HALF INCH OF SNOW IN
ISOLATED LOCATIONS (HREF SHOWS 20-40% CHANCE OF MEASURABLE). WEST-
NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS WILL INCREASE TO 20-30 MPH, AND HIGHER GUSTS
WITHIN SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE. THIS WILL RESULT IN BRIEFLY
REDUCED VISIBILITY AND AS TEMPERATURES FALL THROUGH THE 30S.
SUNDAY AND MONDAY: HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES TO THE SOUTH, LEADING TO
A PERIOD OF QUIET WEATHER. WINDS WILL VEER TO THE SOUTHWEST BY
SUNDAY NIGHT, INITIATING A WARMING TREND. HIGHS SUNDAY STAY IN THE
30S, BUT REACH THE LOW-TO-MID 40S BY MONDAY.
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY: SIGNIFICANT MODEL VARIANCE REMAINS REGARDING
THE TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY SYSTEM. THE GFS REMAINS THE PROGRESSIVE
OUTLIER, SWEEPING A DRY COLD FRONT THROUGH THE MIDWEST, WHILE THE
ECMWF AND ECMWF-AI SUGGEST A SLOWER, DEEPER TROUGH WITH AN
ATTENDANT SURFACE LOW THAT BRINGS HIGHER PRECIPITATION
PROBABILITIES. GIVEN THE ENSEMBLE SPREAD, THE NBM SOLUTION
MAINTAINS LOW CHANCE POPS, PRIMARILY FOR RAIN, LATE TUESDAY THEN
ENDING AS A RAIN/SNOW MIX WED. THERE IS GOOD CONFIDENCE
TEMPERATURES WILL REACH WELL ABOVE NORMAL AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM ON
TUESDAY WITH HIGHS POTENTIALLY REACHING INTO THE 50S FOR MUCH OF
THE CWA.
THURSDAY-FRIDAY: COLD AIR RETURNS BEHIND THE MIDWEEK FRONT. THE
ECMWF EXTREME FORECAST INDEX (EFI) DOES NOT SIGNAL ANY
CLIMATOLOGICALLY EXTREME COLD FOR THE END OF THE WEEK, SUGGESTING
A RETURN TO NEAR OR JUST BELOW JANUARY AVERAGES.
25
AVIATION
(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 524 PM CST FRI JAN 9 2026
MVFR CEILINGS ARE IN PLACE ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL ILLINOIS AND
WILL EXPAND ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE TERMINALS OVER THE NEXT
COUPLES HOURS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESULT IN LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH AROUND
MIDDAY, AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL DIG ACROSS THE REGION
RESULTING IN LIGHT PRECIP AND CEILINGS FURTHER LOWERING TO IFR.
RAIN IS EXPECTED INITIALLY BUT WILL CHANGE OVER TO SNOW FOR AN
HOUR OR TWO ON THE BACK EDGE BEFORE PRECIP ENDS. ACCUMULATIONS
ARE UNLIKELY WITH A DUSTING POSSIBLE ON THE HIGH END. CEILINGS
SHOULD LIFT BACK TO MVFR AND POSSIBLY SCATTER TO VFR AFTER PRECIP
ENDS. MEANWHILE, GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL ACCOMPANY THE WAVE,
WITH GUSTS INTO THE LOW TO MID 20 KT MUCH OF THE DAY SATURDAY.
DEUBELBEISS
ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
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