760
FXUS63 KILX 101716
AFDILX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
1116 AM CST SAT JAN 10 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SNOW SHOWERS WILL OVERSPREAD MUCH OF CENTRAL ILLINOIS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING AS A COLD FRONT SWINGS THROUGH THE
REGION. A LIGHT ACCUMULATION OF ONE HALF INCH OR LESS IS
ANTICIPATED MAINLY ON GRASSY SURFACES ALONG AND NORTH OF THE
I-72 CORRIDOR.
- AFTER A SEASONABLY COOL DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 30S ON SUNDAY,
TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB BACK ABOVE NORMAL BY MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 356 AM CST SAT JAN 10 2026
A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM MINNESOTA TO KANSAS IS
TRIGGERING A BAND OF MOSTLY RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS THE ILLINOIS RIVER
VALLEY EARLY THIS MORNING. ENOUGH COOL AIR IS IN PLACE ON THE BACK
EDGE OF THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD TO RESULT IN A RAIN/SNOW MIX OR
ALL SNOW ACROSS CENTRAL/EASTERN IOWA INTO NORTHERN MISSOURI. AS
THE WAVE PUSHES EASTWARD, LIGHT PRECIPITATION WILL SPREAD ACROSS
THE REMAINDER OF CENTRAL ILLINOIS AS THE MORNING PROGRESSES.
THERMAL PROFILES SUGGEST RAIN INITIALLY...WITH THE RAIN MIXING
WITH SNOW FLAKES AS FAR EAST AS A RANTOUL TO TAYLORVILLE LINE
BEFORE TEMPERATURES WARM SUFFICIENTLY AND THE PRECIP PUSHES
FURTHER EAST INTO INDIANA BY EARLY AFTERNOON.
AFTER THAT, AM EXPECTING A PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER BEFORE A COLD
FRONT CURRENTLY ACROSS THE DAKOTAS DROPS INTO THE AREA. CAMS HAVE
BEEN CONSISTENTLY INDICATING CONVECTIVE SHOWERS FORMING ALONG AND
JUST BEHIND THE BOUNDARY...WITH MOST SOLUTIONS SHOWING THE
SHOWERS INITIALLY PUSHING INTO THE ILLINOIS RIVER VALLEY BETWEEN
2PM AND 3PM...THEN SPREADING EASTWARD TO CHAMPAIGN/DANVILLE
BETWEEN 5PM AND 6PM. WHILE THE ATMOSPHERE WILL INITIALLY BE WARM
ENOUGH TO SUPPORT RAIN OR A RAIN/SNOW MIX, THE PRECIP WILL QUICKLY
TRANSITION TO SNOW DUE TO THE WET BULB EFFECT. 06Z HRRR SUGGESTS
BRIEF VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS TO PERHAPS 1 MILE OR LESS DURING THE
HEAVIEST SNOW SHOWERS, WHICH SHOULD ONLY LAST 1-2 HOURS. ONCE THE
INITIAL PUSH OF PRECIP EXITS, AM EXPECTING ONLY SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS OR FLURRIES LATER IN THE EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
HREF ENSEMBLE MEAN SNOWFALL REACHES 1-2 INCHES ALONG/NORTH OF A
MACOMB TO BLOOMINGTON LINE, BUT DO NOT THINK THESE AMOUNTS WILL BE
REALIZED DUE TO THE WARM GROUND. WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON
UPSTREAM CONVECTIVE TRENDS LATER THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON,
BUT FOR NOW WILL FORECAST SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF ONE HALF INCH OR
LESS ALONG/NORTH OF I-72. THE OTHER STORY TODAY WILL BE THE BRISK
WINDS. WESTERLY WINDS WILL GUST 20-30MPH AHEAD OF THE FRONT THIS
AFTERNOON, THEN WINDS WILL VEER TO NORTHWESTERLY AND GUST 25-35MPH
BEHIND THE DEPARTING BOUNDARY TONIGHT. AFTER A PARTLY TO MOSTLY
CLOUDY START TO THE DAY, SKIES WILL BECOME MOSTLY SUNNY BY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. DESPITE THE SUNSHINE, SEASONABLY COOL HIGHS IN THE
LOWER TO MIDDLE 30S ARE ANTICIPATED.
BARNES
LONG TERM
(MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 356 AM CST SAT JAN 10 2026
A SERIES OF CLIPPER SYSTEMS WILL PASS MAINLY NORTH OF CENTRAL
ILLINOIS NEXT WEEK...FOCUSING THE BEST CHANCE FOR SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST INTO THE GREAT LAKES.
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF ONE OF THE CLIPPERS WILL BOOST TEMPS
WELL INTO THE 40S ON MONDAY, THEN INTO THE LOWER 50S BY TUESDAY.
LIMITED DEEP-LAYER MOISTURE WITHIN THE WAA REGIME AHEAD OF THE
SYSTEM WILL TRIGGER A FEW RAIN SHOWERS TUESDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED BY A
FEW RAIN AND/OR SNOW SHOWERS ON WEDNESDAY:HOWEVER, PRECIPITATION
AMOUNTS WILL REMAIN 0.10 OR LESS. ONCE THE WAVE PASSES TO THE EAST
AND AMPLIFIES, IT WILL PULL A COLDER AIRMASS BACK SOUTHWARD FOR
THE END OF NEXT WEEK...RESULTING IN TEMPS DROPPING BACK TO NEAR
NORMAL VALUES IN THE 30S AND LOWER 40S WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
BARNES
AVIATION
(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1116 AM CST SAT JAN 10 2026
RASN HAS PUSHED EAST OF THE TERMINALS, LEAVING IFR AND MVFR
CEILINGS ACROSS CENTRAL IL. SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE SHOWS MEDIUM TO
HIGH PROBABILITIES THAT THESE CEILINGS WILL SCATTER OUT AT TIMES
THIS AFTERNOON. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE WILL PUSH IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST THIS EVENING AND BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF PRECIP.
CURRENTLY APPEARS THE I-74 CORRIDOR WILL BE MOST IN LINE FOR A FEW
HOURS OF SHSN AND MVFR TO IFR VISIBILITIES, THOUGH THERE IS A LOW
CHANCE (30%) THAT KPIA-KBMI-KCMI WILL SEE LIFR VISIBILITY IN
HEAVIER SHSN. FOR KSPI-KDEC WHERE TEMPERATURES A SLIGHTLY WARMER,
PRECIP TYPE IS LOWER CONFIDENCE AND INCLUDED -RASN. AFTER THIS
INITIAL PUSH OF PRECIP, ISOLATED SHSN WILL LIKELY LINGER THROUGH
MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT AND COVERED THIS WITH VCSH DUE TO LOW
COVERAGE. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE PERSISTENT THROUGH THE FORECAST
AND FREQUENTLY GUST 20-25 KT.
25
ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
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