157
FXUS63 KILX 102319
AFDILX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
519 PM CST SAT JAN 10 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL BRING PERIODS OF GUSTY SNOW SHOWERS
THIS EVENING, PARTICULARLY IN AREAS NORTH OF A BEARDSTOWN TO
PARIS LINE. THERE, TRAVEL MAY BECOME DIFFICULT AS VISIBILITY
FALLS SHARPLY (ONE-HALF MILE OR LESS) OVER SHORT DISTANCES AND
ROADWAYS BECOME SLIPPERY WITHIN THE HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS.
- TEMPERATURES WILL OSCILLATE BETWEEN BELOW NORMAL AND ABOVE
NORMAL THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK BEFORE STABILIZING COLDER
TO END NEXT WEEK. THE COLDER WEATHER TO CLOSE OUT NEXT WEEK MAY
COINCIDE (20-30% CHANCE) WITH A FLURRY OF LIGHT SNOW EVENTS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1216 PM CST SAT JAN 10 2026
A PAIR OF MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCES CONTINUE TO PHASE TOGETHER OVER
THE MIDWEST THIS AFTERNOON, WITH A BAND OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION NOW
SHIFTING EASTWARD TOWARD INDIANA ASSOCIATED WITH THE LEADING
SHORTWAVE AND A LOW-LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE. THE P-TYPE WITH THIS
LEADING BAND HAS FEATURED MOSTLY RAIN, WITH THE SURFACE WET-BULB
TEMPERATURE CONVINCINGLY ABOVE FREEZING. OCCASIONALLY, WE HAVE
OBSERVED A QUICK CHANGE-OVER TO SNOW WHEREVER MESOSCALE
FORCING/COOLING HAS BECOME ENHANCED WITHIN THE STRONGEST FGEN
(850-700MB). EVEN THEN, WINTER IMPACTS HAVE BEEN LIMITED OR NONE
AT ALL.
THE GREATER POTENTIAL IMPACT COMES THIS EVENING AS THE TRAILING
SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT PUSH ACROSS CENTRAL ILLINOIS.
RECENT HI-RES GUIDANCE HAS BEEN CONSISTENT IN ITS DEPICTION OF
GUSTY SNOW SHOWERS DEVELOPING ALONG AND BEHIND THIS COLD FRONT
DURING THE EVENING HOURS. THE MAIN QUESTIONS THAT REMAIN
UNRESOLVED ARE WHICH QPF IS MOST LIKELY AND WHAT THE MAXIMUM WIND
GUSTS MIGHT BE.
REGARDING THE QPF, THE LATEST VALUES FROM BOTH THE MEAN HREF AND
MEAN REFS GENERALLY LIE IN THE RANGE OF 0.01"-0.05". ASSUMING A
SNOW-TO-LIQUID (SLR) RATIO OF 12:1, SNOWFALL WOULD MOST COMMONLY
RANGE BETWEEN A TENTH AND ONE-HALF INCH. HOWEVER, IN A CASE LIKE
THIS WHERE THE SYNOPTIC AND MESOSCALE FORCINGS WILL BECOME QUITE
ROBUST (MSLP RISE/FALL COUPLET; STRONG LOW- LEVEL FGEN; STEEPING
LAPSE RATES; AN AXIS OF SBCAPE; THE INTERSECTION OF UPWARD OMEGA
AND SATURATED DGZ; AND THE POTENTIAL FOR CSI), IT CAN BE WISE TO
LEAN TOWARD THE UPPER TAIL OF QPF GUIDANCE. IN SUCH CASE, THE MAX
HREF QPF AND MAX REFS QPF LIE IN THE RANGE OF 0.1-0.4". AGAIN
ASSUMING AN SLR OF 12:1, SNOWFALL COULD RANGE BETWEEN 1-4 INCHES.
IT IS AN IMPORTANT DISCLAIMER THAT NOT ALL AREAS SHOULD EXPECT 1-4
INCHES OF SNOW, BUT THAT IN LOCALIZED AREAS WHERE ALL THE FORCING
MECHANISMS MIGHT COME ALIGNED, THIS COULD BECOME AN ADVISORY-
LEVEL SNOWFALL FOR A FEW OF US. BEST WE CAN TELL FOR NOW, THE
INTERSTATE 74 CORRIDOR APPEARS TO BE AN AREA WHERE THE BEST
FORCING MECHANISMS COULD BECOME ALIGNED BETWEEN 23Z-08Z (5PM-2AM).
ANY HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS THAT DO DEVELOP THIS EVENING WILL BE
AMPLIFIED BY GUSTY WINDS. RECENT MESOSCALE SOUNDINGS DEPICT LOW-
LEVEL LAPSE RATES THAT APPROACH THE DALR LATE TONIGHT BEHIND THE
COLD FRONT, WITH SURFACE GUSTS IN THE 25-35 MPH RANGE. THE
COMBINATION OF GUSTY WINDS AND SNOW DENDRITES THAT LEAN ON THE
CHUBBIER SIDE COULD MAKE FOR DIFFICULT TRAVEL, AS VISIBILITY
BECOMES SHARPLY REDUCED OVER SHORT DISTANCES (ONE-QUARTER MILE OR
LESS). SUCH IS THE HALLMARK OF SNOW SQUALL TYPE EVENTS.
WHILE SOME CONSIDERATION FOR A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WAS
CONSIDERED ON THIS SHIFT, CONFIDENCE AND COVERAGE OF ADVISORY-
LEVEL SNOW REMAIN TOO LOW AT THE CURRENT TIME. INSTEAD, WE HAVE
OPTED FOR A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT HIGHLIGHTING THE POTENTIAL
FOR IMPACTFUL SNOW SHOWERS. TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED AND HEADLINE
DECISIONS WILL BE DICTATED BY WHAT EVOLVES UPSTREAM LATER THIS
AFTERNOON.
A RAW JANUARY DAY IS IN STORE FOR SUNDAY AS BREEZY NORTH WINDS
ADVECT-IN MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES. WIND CHILL VALUES SUNDAY
MORNING BEHIND THE DEPARTING FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL FALL TO NEAR 10
DEGREES ABOVE ZERO. DAYTIME HIGHS WILL THEN STRUGGLE TO WARM INTO
THE 30S.
TEMPERATURES WHIPSAW WARMER FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS DEEP
NORTHWEST FLOW SPILLS DOWN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES, PROMPTING A
PERIOD OF COMPRESSIONAL WARMING WHICH WILL ULTIMATELY ADVECT
EASTWARD INTO THE MIDWEST. AFTERNOON HIGHS ON MONDAY ARE FORECAST
TO WARM WELL INTO THE 40S, WITH DAYTIME HIGHS ON TUESDAY SURGING
INTO THE 50S FOR MOST.
INTRA-SEASON VOLATILITY WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK AS ATMOSPHERIC FLOW TURNS MERIDIONAL WITH THE POLAR JET
STREAM BUCKLING OVER THE CENTRAL US. THE NET EFFECT WILL BE
PERIODS OF SNOW SHOWERS AND MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES LATE TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS ANOTHER STRONG COLD FRONT PUSHES ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES. EXACT MESOSCALE DETAILS ARE MURKY FOR NOW, BUT
THE ENSEMBLE MEAN ACROSS THE THREE MAJOR FORECAST SYSTEMS (GEFS,
EPS, AND GEPS) SUPPORTS AROUND ONE-HALF INCH OF NEW SNOWFALL
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
THE PATTERN FOR LATE NEXT WEEK LOOKS LIKE IT WILL FAVOR A
CONTINUATION OF CHOPPY MERIDIONAL FLOW, WITH ADDITIONAL BURSTS OF
LIGHT SNOW POSSIBLE (20-30% CHANCE). THERE IS NO SIGNAL FOR A
WINTER STORM, BUT A PARADE OF SHORTWAVES ROTATING THROUGH THE
REGION WITHIN NORTH/NORTHWEST FLOW MAY GRADUALLY RESULT IN A
BLANKET OF NEW SNOW BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK.
MJA
AVIATION
(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 517 PM CST SAT JAN 10 2026
A BAND OF PRECIP IS MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL ILLINOIS EARLY THIS
EVENING PRODUCING SNOW ALONG THE I-74 CORRIDOR AND A RAIN/SNOW
MIX FURTHER SOUTH AT SPI/DEC. BRIEF PERIOD OF IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS
ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE SNOW, BUT LIMITED DURATION SHOULD KEEP
ACCUMULATIONS UNDER AN INCH. AFTER THIS INITIAL BAND OF PRECIP,
WINDS WILL TURN OUT OF THE NORTHWEST AND INCREASE SHARPLY WITH
GUSTS AROUND 30KT MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT HOURS. A FEW ADDITIONAL SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT, BUT LOWER
COVERAGE/CONFIDENCE PRECLUDES MORE THAN A VCSH MENTION AT THIS
TIME. CONDITIONS SHOULD SCATTER BACK TO VFR AS SOME POINT SUNDAY
MORNING WITH WINDS GRADUALLY TAPERING THROUGH THE DAY.
DEUBELBEISS
ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
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