652
FXUS63 KILX 111145
AFDILX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
545 AM CST SUN JAN 11 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- BLUSTERY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THIS MORNING AS NORTHWESTERLY
WINDS GUSTING 25-35MPH CREATE WIND-CHILL VALUES IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS.
- NO MAJOR STORM SYSTEMS ARE SLATED TO IMPACT CENTRAL ILLINOIS
OVER THE NEXT WEEK: HOWEVER, ANOTHER COLD FRONT PASSING THROUGH
THE REGION WILL BRING WINDY AND SHARPLY COLDER CONDITIONS WITH A
FEW RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS ON WEDNESDAY.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 232 AM CST SUN JAN 11 2026
08Z/2AM WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN UPPER LOW OVER THE EASTERN
GREAT LAKES WITH A VIGOROUS SHORT-WAVE TROUGH PIVOTING AROUND THE
LOW ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL ILLINOIS. THIS FEATURE IS CREATING
SUFFICIENT SYNOPTIC LIFT TO TRIGGER SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS
ALONG/NORTH OF A MACOMB TO MATTOON LINE EARLY THIS MORNING. WHILE
THE SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE TRANSIENT IN NATURE, THEY WILL BRIEFLY
REDUCE VISIBILITIES TO 1-2 MILES AND DROP A COUPLE TENTHS OF AN
INCH OF SNOW MAINLY ON GRASSY SURFACES. AS THE WAVE EXITS INTO
INDIANA, AM EXPECTING LINGERING LOW CLOUD COVER AND PERHAPS A FEW
SNOW FLURRIES IN ITS WAKE THROUGH MID-MORNING. DESPITE SYNOPTIC
SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE WAVE, FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE AMPLE
BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE TRAPPED BENEATH THE STRENGTHENING
INVERSION...AS EVIDENCED BY WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER UPSTREAM ACROSS
IOWA/MINNESOTA. AS A RESULT, THINK THE CLOUDS WILL BE SLOW TO
CLEAR TODAY. BASED ON THE N/NW TRAJECTORY WITHIN THE CLOUD LAYER,
THINK SKIES WILL PARTIALLY CLEAR ALONG/SOUTHWEST OF A MACOMB TO
SPRINGFIELD LINE BEFORE MIDDAY...WHILE MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS
WILL PERSIST FURTHER EAST. WHILE SEVERAL HOLES WILL DEVELOP WITHIN
THE OVERCAST, IT APPEARS LOCATIONS EAST OF I-55 WILL REMAIN
PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON BEFORE WINDS TURN
WESTERLY AND CLEAR THINGS OUT ACROSS THE BOARD THIS EVENING. HIGH
TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS IN THE LOWER TO
MIDDLE 30S, WHILE LOWS TONIGHT DROP INTO THE MIDDLE 20S. AS HIGH
PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST OF THE REGION AND BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW BECOMES
SOUTHWESTERLY, TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB INTO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER
40S ON MONDAY.
BARNES
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 232 AM CST SUN JAN 11 2026
THE WARMEST DAY OF THE FORECAST PERIOD WILL BE TUESDAY WHEN STRONG
WAA AHEAD OF THE NEXT APPROACHING COLD FRONT PUSHES AFTERNOON
HIGHS INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 50S. AS THE COLD FRONT ARRIVES, A
FEW RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE TUESDAY NIGHT: HOWEVER, LIMITED
DEEP-LAYER MOISTURE WILL KEEP AREAL COVERAGE OF SHOWERS IN THE
20-30% RANGE. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER
30S AND LOWER 40S: HOWEVER, READINGS WILL DROP INTO THE LOWER TO
MIDDLE 30S BEHIND THE DEPARTING FRONT DURING THE AFTERNOON. STRONG
N/NW WINDS WILL DEVELOP AS WELL...LIKELY GUSTING OVER 30MPH. THANKS
TO CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT AND A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH DIVING SOUTHWARD
BEHIND THE FRONT, AM EXPECTING SCATTERED RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS DURING
THE AFTERNOON AND PERHAPS EVENING AS WELL.
AFTER THAT, PROMINENT UPPER RIDGING WILL DEVELOP OVER THE WESTERN
CONUS...WITH A CORRESPONDING DOWNSTREAM DEEP TROUGH EAST OF THE
ROCKIES. THIS WILL RESULT IN SEASONAL TEMPERATURES IN THE 30S FOR
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, FOLLOWED BY A SURGE OF EVEN COLDER AIR THAT
WILL DROP HIGHS INTO THE 20S BY NEXT WEEKEND. WHILE NO SIGNIFICANT
STORM SYSTEMS ARE EXPECTED, SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE A GOOD
BET AS THE UPPER TROUGH SHARPENS...ESPECIALLY FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY.
BARNES
AVIATION
(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 545 AM CST SUN JAN 11 2026
LOW CLOUDS CONTINUE TO STREAM SOUTHWARD INTO CENTRAL ILLINOIS
EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH A FEW LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES
PRIMARILY EAST OF THE I-55 CORRIDOR. THE MAIN AVIATION FORECAST
CHALLENGE WILL BE PREDICTING THE EXTENT OF CLOUD COVER AND WHEN
IT WILL EVENTUALLY SCATTER. 1130Z/530AM SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS
SEVERAL BREAKS IN THE OVERCAST ACROSS CENTRAL ILLINOIS, BUT A
SOLID BLANKET OF CLOUDS UPSTREAM ALONG/NORTH OF A KMQB TO KBMI
LINE. BASED ON THE DEEP-LAYER N/NW FLOW, THINK CLOUDS WILL BE SLOW
TO CLEAR TODAY...ESPECIALLY AT THE EASTERN TERMINALS. CEILINGS
WILL BE LOW VFR ACROSS THE BOARD EARLY THIS MORNING, THEN
ADDITIONAL HOLES WILL DEVELOP IN THE OVERCAST AS THE DAY
PROGRESSES. IN ADDITION, AS WINDS SLOWLY BACK TO W/NW, THE BACK
EDGE OF THE CLOUDS WILL SHIFT/ERODE INTO THE ILLINOIS RIVER VALLEY
TOWARD MIDDAY. HAVE THEREFORE SCATTERED THE CLOUD COVER AT BOTH
KPIA AND KSPI BY AROUND 16Z, BUT HAVE OPTED TO MAINTAIN CEILINGS
FURTHER EAST. ONCE THE FLOW BACKS FURTHER TO W/SW, SKIES WILL
CLEAR FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA THIS EVENING. WINDS
WILL INITIALLY BE NW WITH GUSTS OF 25-30KT EARLY THIS MORNING,
THEN WILL STEADILY DECREASE THROUGH THE DAY...EVENTUALLY BECOMING
W/SW AND DROPPING TO LESS THAN 10KT PRIOR TO SUNSET.
BARNES
ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page