924
FXUS63 KILX 111832
AFDILX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
1232 PM CST SUN JAN 11 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- NO MAJOR STORM SYSTEMS ARE SLATED TO IMPACT CENTRAL ILLINOIS
OVER THE NEXT WEEK: HOWEVER, ANOTHER COLD FRONT PASSING THROUGH
THE REGION WILL BRING WINDY AND SHARPLY COLDER CONDITIONS WITH
A FEW RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS ON WEDNESDAY.
DISCUSSION
(THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1228 PM CST SUN JAN 11 2026
TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO MODERATE LATER TONIGHT AS DEEP
NORTHWEST FLOW SPILLS DOWN THE LEEWARD SIDE OF THE ROCKIES,
PROMPTING A PERIOD OF COMPRESSIONAL WARMING WHICH WILL ULTIMATELY
ADVECT EASTWARD INTO THE MIDWEST. AFTERNOON HIGHS ON MONDAY ARE
FORECAST TO WARM WELL INTO THE 40S, WITH DAYTIME HIGHS ON TUESDAY
SURGING INTO THE 50S FOR MOST.
INTRA-SEASON VOLATILITY THEN PERSISTS THROUGH MIDWEEK AS
ATMOSPHERIC FLOW TURNS MERIDIONAL WITH THE POLAR JET STREAM ONCE
AGAIN BUCKLING OVER THE CENTRAL US. THE NET EFFECT WILL BE PERIODS
OF SNOW SHOWERS AND MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES INTO WEDNESDAY AS
ANOTHER STRONG COLD FRONT PUSHES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. EXACT
MESOSCALE DETAILS ARE MURKY FOR NOW, BUT THE ENSEMBLE MEAN ACROSS
THE THREE MAJOR FORECAST SYSTEMS (GEFS, EPS, AND GEPS) SUPPORTS
AROUND ONE-HALF INCH OF NEW SNOWFALL THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
THE PATTERN FOR LATE WEEK LOOKS LIKE IT WILL FAVOR A CONTINUATION
OF CHOPPY MERIDIONAL FLOW, WITH ADDITIONAL BURSTS OF LIGHT SNOW.
WHILE THERE IS CURRENTLY NO SIGNAL FOR ANY ONE SIGNIFICANT
ACCUMULATING EVENT, THE PARADE OF SHORTWAVES ROTATING THROUGH THE
REGION WITHIN NORTH/NORTHWEST FLOW SHOULD GRADUALLY RESULT IN A
LIGHT BLANKET OF NEW SNOW COVER BY THE END OF THE WEEK. THIS
PERIOD WILL COINCIDE WITH SEASONABLY COLD TEMPERATURES, WITH WIND
CHILL VALUES POSSIBLY BELOW ZERO AS EARLY AS WEDNESDAY NIGHT
(10-30% CHANCE) BUT MORE LIKELY BY NEXT WEEKEND (30-50% CHANCE).
MJA
AVIATION
(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1100 AM CST SUN JAN 11 2026
MVFR CEILINGS PERSISTING INTO THIS AFTERNOON ARE THE PRIMARY
FORECAST ISSUE. GLAMP GUIDANCE HAS BEEN MATCHING VISIBLE
SATELLITE TRENDS BEST TODAY, SO WENT WITH ITS SLOWER TIMING ON
CLEARING. THIS KEEPS THE CENTRAL IL TERMINALS IN MVFR UNTIL
21-23Z, ERODING FROM THE SOUTHWEST. AFTER THAT, VFR WITH ONLY
CIRRUS FORECAST THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
LOSE GUSTINESS THIS AFTERNOON, THEN BACK SOUTHWEST THIS EVENING.
25
ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
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