604
FXUS63 KILX 112322
AFDILX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
522 PM CST SUN JAN 11 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- NO MAJOR STORM SYSTEMS ARE SLATED TO IMPACT CENTRAL ILLINOIS
OVER THE NEXT WEEK: HOWEVER, ANOTHER COLD FRONT PASSING THROUGH
THE REGION WILL BRING WINDY AND SHARPLY COLDER CONDITIONS WITH
A FEW RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS ON WEDNESDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1228 PM CST SUN JAN 11 2026
TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO MODERATE LATER TONIGHT AS DEEP
NORTHWEST FLOW SPILLS DOWN THE LEEWARD SIDE OF THE ROCKIES,
PROMPTING A PERIOD OF COMPRESSIONAL WARMING WHICH WILL ULTIMATELY
ADVECT EASTWARD INTO THE MIDWEST. AFTERNOON HIGHS ON MONDAY ARE
FORECAST TO WARM WELL INTO THE 40S, WITH DAYTIME HIGHS ON TUESDAY
SURGING INTO THE 50S FOR MOST.
INTRA-SEASON VOLATILITY THEN PERSISTS THROUGH MIDWEEK AS
ATMOSPHERIC FLOW TURNS MERIDIONAL WITH THE POLAR JET STREAM ONCE
AGAIN BUCKLING OVER THE CENTRAL US. THE NET EFFECT WILL BE PERIODS
OF SNOW SHOWERS AND MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES INTO WEDNESDAY AS
ANOTHER STRONG COLD FRONT PUSHES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. EXACT
MESOSCALE DETAILS ARE MURKY FOR NOW, BUT THE ENSEMBLE MEAN ACROSS
THE THREE MAJOR FORECAST SYSTEMS (GEFS, EPS, AND GEPS) SUPPORTS
AROUND ONE-HALF INCH OF NEW SNOWFALL THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
THE PATTERN FOR LATE WEEK LOOKS LIKE IT WILL FAVOR A CONTINUATION
OF CHOPPY MERIDIONAL FLOW, WITH ADDITIONAL BURSTS OF LIGHT SNOW.
WHILE THERE IS CURRENTLY NO SIGNAL FOR ANY ONE SIGNIFICANT
ACCUMULATING EVENT, THE PARADE OF SHORTWAVES ROTATING THROUGH THE
REGION WITHIN NORTH/NORTHWEST FLOW SHOULD GRADUALLY RESULT IN A
LIGHT BLANKET OF NEW SNOW COVER BY THE END OF THE WEEK. THIS
PERIOD WILL COINCIDE WITH SEASONABLY COLD TEMPERATURES, WITH WIND
CHILL VALUES POSSIBLY BELOW ZERO AS EARLY AS WEDNESDAY NIGHT
(10-30% CHANCE) BUT MORE LIKELY BY NEXT WEEKEND (30-50% CHANCE).
MJA
AVIATION
(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 521 PM CST SUN JAN 11 2026
CENTRAL ILLINOIS WILL REMAIN ON THE PERIPHERY OF HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED JUST SOUTH OF THE OHIO VALLEY THROUGH THE PERIOD. A
MODEST SW BREEZE OF 5-10KT WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MONDAY EVENING AS
A RESULT. MVFR CEILINGS CURRENTLY IN PLACE HAVE SLOWLY BEEN
CLEARING FROM THE WEST WITH PIA/SPI NOW VFR AS OF THIS WRITING AND
THE REMAINING CENTRAL ILLINOIS TERMINALS EXPECTED TO CLEAR OVER
THE NEXT 2-3 HOURS.
DEUBELBEISS
ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
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