343
FXUS63 KILX 151758
AFDILX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
1158 AM CST THU JAN 15 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- A FAST-MOVING DISTURBANCE WILL BRING A PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW
TONIGHT. SNOWFALL WILL GENERALLY BE 1 INCH OR LESS: HOWEVER,
THERE IS A 60-70% CHANCE THAT A FEW LOCATIONS ALONG AND
NORTHEAST OF A LACON TO CHAMPAIGN LINE WILL EXCEED 1 INCH.
- COLD JANUARY WEATHER WILL PREVAIL SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
HIGH TEMPERATURES DURING THAT PERIOD WILL ONLY REACH THE TEENS
AND LOWER 20S WHILE OVERNIGHT LOWS DIP INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 242 AM CST THU JAN 15 2026
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING PLENTIFUL SUNSHINE, LIGHT WINDS, AND
CHILLY TEMPERATURES TO CENTRAL ILLINOIS THIS MORNING. AS THE RIDGE
QUICKLY SHIFTS INTO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY AND SOUTHWESTERLY RETURN
FLOW DEVELOPS THIS AFTERNOON, HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB INTO
THE UPPER 20S TO AROUND 30 DEGREES.
AS LOW PRESSURE CURRENTLY ANALYZED OVER NORTHERN SASKATCHEWAN
DROPS SOUTHEASTWARD INTO ONTARIO, IT WILL PULL A TROUGH AXIS
EASTWARD ACROSS THE PLAINS INTO THE MIDWEST TONIGHT. WHILE THE
ATMOSPHERE WILL INITIALLY BE QUITE DRY, PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE TO AROUND 0.50 BY THIS EVENING. AS
ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE DEVELOPS AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING TROUGH,
SATURATION WILL BE ACHIEVED AND A BAND OF LIGHT SNOW WILL
DEVELOP. 00Z/06Z CAMS AGREE THAT THE BAND WILL BE FAST-MOVING,
RESULTING IN A 3-6 HOUR PERIOD OF SNOW AT ANY ONE LOCATION. GIVEN
THE LIMITED MOISTURE AND TRANSIENT NATURE OF THE PRECIPITATION,
SNOWFALL TOTALS ARE EXPECTED TO BE MINOR. THE LATEST DATA SUGGESTS
1 INCH OR LESS ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE AREA: HOWEVER, THERE IS
A 60-70% CHANCE OF EXCEEDING 1 INCH ALONG AND NORTHEAST OF A
LACON TO CHAMPAIGN LINE. THE SNOW WILL QUICKLY COME TO AN END FROM
WEST TO EAST OVERNIGHT, FOLLOWED BY A MOSTLY CLOUDY AND GENERALLY
DRY DAY ON FRIDAY. SEVERAL MODELS ARE TRYING TO DEVELOP A FEW
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS LATER IN THE AFTERNOON, BUT THINK THE BULK OF
THESE WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL EVENING. HIGHS ON FRIDAY WILL BE WARMER
THAN TODAY...WITH READINGS TOPPING OUT IN THE UPPER 30S TO AROUND
40. AS A RESULT, THE SNOWFALL FROM TONIGHT SHOULD MOSTLY MELT.
BARNES
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 242 AM CST THU JAN 15 2026
AS THE ONTARIO LOW DROPS INTO THE GREAT LAKES, IT WILL DRAG A COLD
FRONT SOUTHWARD THROUGH CENTRAL ILLINOIS FRIDAY NIGHT. ENOUGH LIFT
WILL BE GENERATED ALONG/NEAR THE BOUNDARY TO TRIGGER SCATTERED
SNOW SHOWERS AS IT PASSES. A COUPLE TENTHS OF AN INCH OF SNOW WILL
BE POSSIBLE.
THE MAIN WEATHER STORY IN THE EXTENDED WILL BE THE COLDER
CONDITIONS EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. SATURDAY
WILL BE A BLUSTERY AND COLD DAY WITH SCATTERED SNOW FLURRIES AND
HIGHS ONLY IN THE TEENS AND LOWER 20S. SUNDAY WILL BE ABOUT THE
SAME, ALTHOUGH FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST PARTIAL SUNSHINE AND
LIGHTER WINDS. YET ANOTHER SHORT-WAVE TROUGH DIGGING SOUTHWARD
OUT OF CANADA WILL SEND A RE-INFORCING SHOT OF VERY COLD AIR INTO
THE REGION LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL
STRUGGLE TO CLIMB INTO THE TEENS WHILE OVERNIGHT LOWS DIP INTO THE
SINGLE DIGITS. AFTER THAT, A SLOW MODERATION IS EXPECTED AS HIGHS
CLIMB BACK TO NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS IN THE MIDDLE 30S BY NEXT
WEDNESDAY.
BARNES
AVIATION
(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1155 AM CST THU JAN 15 2026
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL ACROSS THE CENTRAL IL TERMINAL
AIRPORTS THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY EVENING AS MID/HIGH CLOUDS
INCREASE BETWEEN 22-24Z. A BAND OF LIGHT SNOW WILL DEVELOP AHEAD
OF AN APPROACHING TROUGH ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. HAVE A 3-4 HOUR PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW WITH VSBYS 1-3
MILES AND MVFR CEILINGS SPREADING INTO PIA AROUND 03Z/9 PM, AND
CMI BY 06Z/MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. ANOTHER BAND OF LIGHTER SNOW COULD
SPREAD ACROSS CENTRAL IL AIRPORTS LATE TONIGHT INTO MID FRIDAY
MORNING WITH MVFR CONDITIONS STILL POSSIBLE. WEST TO SW WINDS NEAR
10 KTS TO VEER SOUTH BY EARLY EVENING AND GRADUALLY INCREASE TO
10-15 KTS WITH GUSTS 18-23 KTS DURING TONIGHT AND VEER SW. A COLD
FRONT MOVING THROUGH LATE FRI MORNING WITH SWITCH WINDS WEST TO
WNW AND INCREASE TO 15-20 KTS AND GUSTS 23-28 KTS. ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS STILL POSSIBLE BEHIND THE COLD FRONT FRI
AFTERNOON WITH STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROF APPROACHING IL FROM THE
NORTHWEST.
07
ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
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