487
FXUS63 KILX 152328
AFDILX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
528 PM CST THU JAN 15 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- A FAST-MOVING DISTURBANCE WILL BRING A PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW
TONIGHT TO IL, SPREADING INTO CENTRAL IL DURING THIS EVENING AND
DIMINISHING FROM WEST TO EAST DURING OVERNIGHT. SNOWFALL WILL
GENERALLY BE 1 INCH OR LESS. HOWEVER, HREF HAS A 40-70% CHANCE
THAT SOME LOCATIONS NORTH OF I-70, AND ALONG AND EAST OF A
GALESBURG TO SPRINGFIELD LINE TO REACH 1 INCH OR MORE SNOWFALL.
- MORE SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED DURING FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING WITH A DUSTING EXPECTED AND A FEW SPOTS SEEING UP TO A
HALF INCH. BLUSTERY WEST NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING UP TO 30 MPH
WILL OCCUR BEHIND A COLD FRONT FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND BRING IN
MUCH COLD AIR FRIDAY NIGHT.
- COLD JANUARY WEATHER WILL PREVAIL SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
OVER CENTRAL/SE IL. LOWS WILL DIP INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MON NIGHT, WITH WIND CHILLS ZERO TO 10
BELOW, AND AS COLD AS 5 TO 15 BELOW OVERNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MON MORNING.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 225 PM CST THU JAN 15 2026
ABUNDANT SUNSHINE PREVAILED ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST IL SO FAR
TODAY, COMPLIMENTS OF 1021 MB HIGH PRESSURE OVER LA AND RIDGING
NORTHWARD OVER IL. WEST TO SW WINDS WERE MUCH LIGHTER TODAY THAN
YESTERDAY WITH SPEEDS 5-10 MPH AND FEW GUSTS TO 15 MPH. DESPITE
THE SUNSHINE, TEMPS WERE BELOW FREEZING IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S AT
2 PM.
A WEATHER SYSTEM OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL MOVE INTO THE UPPER
MS RIVER VALLEY BY MIDNIGHT AND INTO THE IL RIVER VALLEY BY
SUNRISE FRIDAY. WARM AIR ADVECTION AND ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF
THIS SYSTEM WILL LIKELY DEVELOP A BAND OF LIGHT SNOW TO SPREAD
EASTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL IL DURING THIS EVENING, AND DIMINISH
DURING OVERNIGHT (LASTING ABOUT 4 HOURS). WE ARE STILL FORECASTING
BETWEEN HALF AND 1 INCH OF SNOW OVER MUCH OF CWA, WITH HREF HAVING
40-70% CHANCE OF 1 INCH OR MORE SNOWFALL NORTH OF I-70 AND FROM
GALESBURG TO SPRINGFIELD EAST. EVENING LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 20S,
COLDEST IN EASTERN IL, WITH SLOWLY RISING TEMPS LATER THIS EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT WITH AS SSW WINDS PICK UP. THESE SW BREEZES BRIEFLY
BRING MILDER AIR BACK INTO THE AREA WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER
30S/LOWER 40S ON FRIDAY.
A STRONG MID/UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL DIG INTO THE MIDWEST AND IL
FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY. THE CAMS ARE SHOWING MORE
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS DEVELOPING FRI AFTERNOON INTO FRI EVENING
AS AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH FRI AFTERNOON/EVE. THIS
COULD BRING QUICK SNOW BURST AND GUSTY WINDS AS TEMPS FALL BEHIND
THE COLD FRONT. HAVE INCREASED CHANCES OF LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS FRI
AFTERNOON AND EVENING TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS POSSIBILITY OF SNOW
BURSTS. FLURRIES WILL BE POSSIBLE SATURDAY AND SAT EVENING WITH
THE DEEP TROF. LOWS FRI NIGHT IN THE MID TO UPPER TEENS IN
CENTRAL IL AND LOWER 20S IN SOUTHEAST IL. THE STRONG TROF TO KEEP
TEMPS WELL BELOW NORMAL OVER CENTRAL/SE IL FROM SATURDAY THROUGH
TUE NIGHT. LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS SAT NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT(LOWER TEENS IN SOUTHEAST IL SAT AND SUNDAY NIGHT) AND WIND
CHILLS ZERO TO 10 BELOW AND AS COLD AS 5-15 BELOW OVERNIGHT SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MID MONDAY MORNING. THAT PERIOD MAY GET CLOSE TO COLD
WEATHER ADVISORY CRITERIA OVERNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MON
MORNING. NEARBY CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE EARLY NEXT WEEK TO KEEP US
DRY AND COLD. TEMPERATURES TO MODIFY WED WITH TEMPS GETTING CLOSER
TO NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE 30S. WILL NEED TO WATCH A POSSIBLE
SOUTHERN STREAM STORM SYSTEM NEXT THU THAT COULD BRING CHANCE OF
MIXED PCPN TO CENTRAL/SE IL, THOUGH A FEW MODEL MEMBERS LIKE ECMWF
KEEP THIS SYSTEM SOUTH OF IL.
07
AVIATION
(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 528 PM CST THU JAN 15 2026
A NARROW NORTH-SOUTH ORIENTED BAND OF -SN WAS TRACKING SOUTHEAST
INTO EASTERN IA AND NORTHERN MO LATE THIS AFTERNOON. MUCH OF THE
RADAR RETURNS ARE NOT REACHING THE GROUND DUE TO DRY LOW-MID
LEVEL. FEEL THIS WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE CASE OVER CENTRAL IL
TERMINALS LATER THIS EVENING, SO SHOWED A SLIGHT IMPROVEMENT IN
TAFS TO A 3 HOUR PERIOD OF -SN AND MVFR CONDITIONS AT KPIA- KBMI,
AND KEPT CONDITIONS VFR AT THE REMAINING SITES. ANOTHER SIMILAR
BAND OF SNOW IS FORECAST TO PUSH SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA FROM
11-16Z FRIDAY, HOWEVER WITH BETTER SATURATION NOTED ON FORECAST
SOUNDINGS, BROUGHT CONDITIONS DOWN TO IFR FOR KPIA-KBMI- KCMI AND
MVFR AT KSPI-KDEC. AFTER THAT, ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHSN WILL BE
AROUND DURING THE AFTERNOON BUT WITH LOW CONFIDENCE THAT A
TERMINAL WILL BE IMPACTED KEPT VCSH. IF A SITE DOES SEE A SHSN,
BRIEF REDUCTIONS TO IFR ARE POSSIBLE. 10-15 KT SSW WINDS WILL BE
COMMON INTO FRI MORNING, THEN WILL VEER WSW AND INCREASE WITH
20-25 KT GUSTS.
25
ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
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