650
FXUS63 KILX 160341
AFDILX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
941 PM CST THU JAN 15 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- A FAST-MOVING DISTURBANCE WILL BRING A PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW
TONIGHT TO IL, SPREADING INTO CENTRAL IL DURING THIS EVENING AND
DIMINISHING FROM WEST TO EAST DURING OVERNIGHT. SNOWFALL WILL
GENERALLY BE 1 INCH OR LESS. HOWEVER, HREF HAS A 40-70% CHANCE
THAT SOME LOCATIONS NORTH OF I-70, AND ALONG AND EAST OF A
GALESBURG TO SPRINGFIELD LINE TO REACH 1 INCH OR MORE SNOWFALL.
- MORE SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED DURING FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING WITH A DUSTING EXPECTED AND A FEW SPOTS SEEING UP TO A
HALF INCH. BLUSTERY WEST NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING UP TO 30 MPH
WILL OCCUR BEHIND A COLD FRONT FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND BRING IN
MUCH COLD AIR FRIDAY NIGHT.
- COLD JANUARY WEATHER WILL PREVAIL SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
OVER CENTRAL/SE IL. LOWS WILL DIP INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MON NIGHT, WITH WIND CHILLS ZERO TO 10
BELOW, AND AS COLD AS 5 TO 15 BELOW OVERNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MON MORNING.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 752 PM CST THU JAN 15 2026
NARROW BAND SNOW ASSOCIATED WITH A FOCUSED ZONE OF ISENTROPIC LIFT
WAS PUSHING INTO WESTERN IL CURRENTLY. AS ASCENT HAS INCREASED
OVER THE PAST COUPLE HOURS, HAVE SEEN VISIBILITIES DROP BELOW 1
MILE AT TIMES OVER PORTIONS OF EASTERN IA. 00Z ILX SOUNDING SHOWS
A FAIR AMOUNT OF DRY AIR BELOW 700 MB, BUT FORECAST SOUNDINGS
SHOW THIS WILL BE OVERCOME QUICKLY. PROFILES SHOW A 1-2 HOUR
PERIOD OF MORE INTENSE LIFT WITHIN THE DGZ, CO-LOCATED WITH AN
ISOTHERMAL LAYER. THIS RAISES THE POTENTIAL FOR A QUICK BURST OF
1" SNOWFALL IN SPOTS THIS EVENING AS THE BAND SHIFTS EAST ACROSS
CENTRAL IL. HAVE UPDATED POPS AND TIMING TO REFLECT LATEST TRENDS.
IN ADDITION, A SHORTWAVE ROTATING THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING LOOKS TO
BRING A PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW AND HAVE UPDATED POPS AND QPF TO
SHOW ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS OF A HALF INCH OR LESS.
25
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 225 PM CST THU JAN 15 2026
ABUNDANT SUNSHINE PREVAILED ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST IL SO FAR
TODAY, COMPLIMENTS OF 1021 MB HIGH PRESSURE OVER LA AND RIDGING
NORTHWARD OVER IL. WEST TO SW WINDS WERE MUCH LIGHTER TODAY THAN
YESTERDAY WITH SPEEDS 5-10 MPH AND FEW GUSTS TO 15 MPH. DESPITE
THE SUNSHINE, TEMPS WERE BELOW FREEZING IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S AT
2 PM.
A WEATHER SYSTEM OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL MOVE INTO THE UPPER
MS RIVER VALLEY BY MIDNIGHT AND INTO THE IL RIVER VALLEY BY
SUNRISE FRIDAY. WARM AIR ADVECTION AND ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF
THIS SYSTEM WILL LIKELY DEVELOP A BAND OF LIGHT SNOW TO SPREAD
EASTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL IL DURING THIS EVENING, AND DIMINISH
DURING OVERNIGHT (LASTING ABOUT 4 HOURS). WE ARE STILL FORECASTING
BETWEEN HALF AND 1 INCH OF SNOW OVER MUCH OF CWA, WITH HREF HAVING
40-70% CHANCE OF 1 INCH OR MORE SNOWFALL NORTH OF I-70 AND FROM
GALESBURG TO SPRINGFIELD EAST. EVENING LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 20S,
COLDEST IN EASTERN IL, WITH SLOWLY RISING TEMPS LATER THIS EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT WITH AS SSW WINDS PICK UP. THESE SW BREEZES BRIEFLY
BRING MILDER AIR BACK INTO THE AREA WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER
30S/LOWER 40S ON FRIDAY.
A STRONG MID/UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL DIG INTO THE MIDWEST AND IL
FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY. THE CAMS ARE SHOWING MORE
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS DEVELOPING FRI AFTERNOON INTO FRI EVENING
AS AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH FRI AFTERNOON/EVE. THIS
COULD BRING QUICK SNOW BURST AND GUSTY WINDS AS TEMPS FALL BEHIND
THE COLD FRONT. HAVE INCREASED CHANCES OF LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS FRI
AFTERNOON AND EVENING TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS POSSIBILITY OF SNOW
BURSTS. FLURRIES WILL BE POSSIBLE SATURDAY AND SAT EVENING WITH
THE DEEP TROF. LOWS FRI NIGHT IN THE MID TO UPPER TEENS IN
CENTRAL IL AND LOWER 20S IN SOUTHEAST IL. THE STRONG TROF TO KEEP
TEMPS WELL BELOW NORMAL OVER CENTRAL/SE IL FROM SATURDAY THROUGH
TUE NIGHT. LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS SAT NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT(LOWER TEENS IN SOUTHEAST IL SAT AND SUNDAY NIGHT) AND WIND
CHILLS ZERO TO 10 BELOW AND AS COLD AS 5-15 BELOW OVERNIGHT SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MID MONDAY MORNING. THAT PERIOD MAY GET CLOSE TO COLD
WEATHER ADVISORY CRITERIA OVERNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MON
MORNING. NEARBY CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE EARLY NEXT WEEK TO KEEP US
DRY AND COLD. TEMPERATURES TO MODIFY WED WITH TEMPS GETTING CLOSER
TO NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE 30S. WILL NEED TO WATCH A POSSIBLE
SOUTHERN STREAM STORM SYSTEM NEXT THU THAT COULD BRING CHANCE OF
MIXED PCPN TO CENTRAL/SE IL, THOUGH A FEW MODEL MEMBERS LIKE ECMWF
KEEP THIS SYSTEM SOUTH OF IL.
07
AVIATION
(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 941 PM CST THU JAN 15 2026
BAND OF SN WITH LOCALIZED IFR VISIBILITY WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE
TERMINALS BETWEEN 06-08Z, THEN CONDITIONS WILL TURN VFR AREA-
WIDE. HOWEVER ANOTHER BAND OF -SN IS FORECAST TO AFFECT THE AREA
BETWEEN ABOUT 11-16Z, PRIMARILY WITH MVFR CONDITIONS. AFTER THAT
SNOW DIMINISHES, MVFR CEILINGS SHOULD PERSIST INTO AFTERNOON
BEFORE RISING TO VFR. SCATTERED SHSN WILL BE AROUND FROM MID
AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING BUT COVERAGE TOO LOW TO INCLUDE BEYOND
VCSH AT THIS POINT. SOUTHWEST WINDS TONIGHT WILL VEER WSW BY LATE
MORNING GUSTING NEAR 20 KT, THEN LOSE GUSTINESS AFTER SUNSET WHILE
VEERING WEST.
25
ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
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