929
FXUS63 KILX 160820
AFDILX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
220 AM CST FRI JAN 16 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- LIGHT, HIT-OR-MISS SNOW TODAY: SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS MAY
PRODUCE UP TO 1 TO 2 INCHES IN SPOTS, WITH SOME AREAS SEEING
LITTLE OR NO ACCUMULATION. BRIEF SNOW SQUALLS, ESPECIALLY DURING
THE EVENING COMMUTE, COULD CAUSE LOCALIZED VISIBILITY DROPS AND
SLICK TRAVEL.
- DANGEROUS COLD IS THE MAIN CONCERN: A PERSISTENT COLD PATTERN
WILL BRING SINGLE-DIGIT LOWS AND BELOW-ZERO WIND CHILLS SUNDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY, WITH ONLY OCCASIONAL LIGHT SNOW AND NO MAJOR
WINTER STORMS.
DISCUSSION
(THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 216 AM CST FRI JAN 16 2026
MULTIPLE SPOKES OF VORTICITY ARE EXPECTED TO PINWHEEL THROUGH THE
BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT TODAY AND TONIGHT, RESULTING IN
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION. RECENT ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE
(HREF AND REFS) SUGGESTS LIMITED QPF (LPMM), GENERALLY UNDER 0.05
INCHES, THOUGH ISOLATED POCKETS COULD SEE UP TO 0.15 INCHES OVER
ANY SIX-HOUR PERIOD.
APPLYING THE CENTRAL ILLINOIS CLIMATOLOGICAL SNOW-TO-LIQUID RATIO
OF 12:1 SUGGESTS A NEW SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION OF 0.5 TO 1.5
INCHES. THIS IS GENERALLY A SUB-ADVISORY-TYPE SNOW EVENT. HOWEVER,
IMPACTS DEPEND ON THE TIMING AND INTENSITY OF THE PRECIPITATION.
FOR EXAMPLE, IF LOCALIZED SNOW SQUALLS DEVELOP DURING THE EVENING
COMMUTE, AS A FEW OF THE CAMS SUGGEST, THEN THE CHANCE OF MINOR
TRAVEL DISRUPTIONS INCREASES DUE TO SHARPLY REDUCED VISIBILITY
OVER SHORT DISTANCES AND SLIPPERY ROADS. BUT, AS IS TYPICAL WITH
SHOWERY PRECIPITATION, SOME AREAS MAY NOT SEE ANY NEW ACCUMULATION
TODAY.
BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL DOMINATE THE FORECAST PERIOD,
DRIVEN BY A STRONGLY NEGATIVE EAST PACIFIC OSCILLATION (EPO)
WHICH IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK
BEFORE MODERATING. THIS PATTERN WILL ESTABLISH HIGH-LATITUDE
RIDGING OVER ALASKA, DISPLACING ARCTIC AIR SOUTHWARD INTO THE
GREAT LAKES AND EVENTUALLY CENTRAL ILLINOIS THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY
NEXT WEEK.
THE PRIMARY CONCERN WILL BE DANGEROUSLY COLD TEMPERATURES. LOWS
ARE PROJECTED TO DROP INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS, RESULTING IN WIND
CHILLS FALLING BELOW ZERO EACH MORNING FROM SUNDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED TO RETURN TO MORE SEASONABLE
CONDITIONS TOWARD THE END OF NEXT WEEK.
AN ACTIVE STORM TRACK WILL COINCIDE WITH THIS COLD AIR, BRINGING
A WAVETRAIN OF DISTURBANCES ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST. THESE QUICK-
HITTING, CLIPPER-LIKE SYSTEMS MAY OCCASIONALLY IMPACT CENTRAL
ILLINOIS DIRECTLY; HOWEVER, THEY ARE NOT EXPECTED TO DEVELOP INTO
SIGNIFICANT MID-LATITUDE CYCLONES, AND THEREFORE ARE NOT
FORECASTED TO PRODUCE HEAVY SNOWFALL OVER THE NEXT WEEK.
MJA
AVIATION
(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 941 PM CST THU JAN 15 2026
BAND OF SN WITH LOCALIZED IFR VISIBILITY WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE
TERMINALS BETWEEN 06-08Z, THEN CONDITIONS WILL TURN VFR AREA-
WIDE. HOWEVER ANOTHER BAND OF -SN IS FORECAST TO AFFECT THE AREA
BETWEEN ABOUT 11-16Z, PRIMARILY WITH MVFR CONDITIONS. AFTER THAT
SNOW DIMINISHES, MVFR CEILINGS SHOULD PERSIST INTO AFTERNOON
BEFORE RISING TO VFR. SCATTERED SHSN WILL BE AROUND FROM MID
AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING BUT COVERAGE TOO LOW TO INCLUDE BEYOND
VCSH AT THIS POINT. SOUTHWEST WINDS TONIGHT WILL VEER WSW BY LATE
MORNING GUSTING NEAR 20 KT, THEN LOSE GUSTINESS AFTER SUNSET WHILE
VEERING WEST.
25
ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
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