631
FXUS63 KILX 161704
AFDILX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
1104 AM CST FRI JAN 16 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- LIGHT, HIT-OR-MISS SNOW TODAY: SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS MAY
PRODUCE UP TO 1 TO 2 INCHES IN SPOTS, WITH SOME AREAS SEEING
LITTLE OR NO ACCUMULATION. BRIEF SNOW SQUALLS, ESPECIALLY DURING
THE EVENING COMMUTE, COULD CAUSE LOCALIZED VISIBILITY DROPS AND
SLICK TRAVEL.
- DANGEROUS COLD IS THE MAIN CONCERN: A PERSISTENT COLD PATTERN
WILL BRING SINGLE-DIGIT LOWS AND BELOW-ZERO WIND CHILLS SUNDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY, WITH ONLY OCCASIONAL LIGHT SNOW AND NO MAJOR
WINTER STORMS.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1050 AM CST FRI JAN 16 2026
SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO FORECAST INTO TONIGHT WITH CHANCES OF
SNOW SHOWERS AND TEMPERATURES. A BAND OF LIGHT SNOW AND FLURRIES
WAS ALONG AND SE OF A DANVILLE TO EFFINGHAM LINE, AND SOME OF THIS
IS VIRGA WITH DRY AIR AT LOWER LEVELS WITH DEWPOINTS IN LOW TO MID
20S FROM I-55 EAST. THIS VERY LIGHT PCPN WAS ASSOCIATED WITH AN
OCCLUDED FRONT PUSHING TOWARD THE WABASH RIVER AROUND 18Z/NOON
TODAY. OTHERWISE MUCH OF CWA IS DRY AFTER RECEIVED HALF TO 1 INCH
OF SNOWFALL LAST NIGHT. BREEZY WEST TO SW WINDS 10-20 MPH AND A
FEW GUSTS 22-32 MPH WAS BRINGING IN MILDER AIR WITH TEMPS 32-38F
OVER MUCH OF CWA AT 10 AM. AN ARCTIC FRONT PUSHING SE INTO CENTRAL
PARTS OF IOWA AND WI DURING MIDDAY, WILL PUSH SE THRU CENTRAL IL
DURING THIS EVENING AND PASS THRU SOUTHEAST IL EARLY OVERNIGHT.
THERE IS STILL SOME POTENTIAL OF BRIEF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW
BURSTS AND POSSIBLE SNOW SQUALLS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
FROM PEORIA AND BLOOMINGTON SOUTH. THOUGH THIS SETUP IS NOT QUITE
AS STRONG AS THIS PAST WED MORNING WAS IN NORTHEAST AND EAST
CENTRAL IL. SNOW SQUALL PARAMETER LEVELS PEAK AT 1-2 LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING, WHILE CAPES PEAK FROM 25-45 J/KG (JUST BELOW
THE 50 J/KG THRESHOLD). MILDER HIGHS TODAY IN THE UPPER 30S/LOWER
40S (MILDEST SW CWA) WITH TEMPS FALLING LATE THIS AFTERNOON OVER
IL RIVER VALLEY AND OVER REST OF CWA DURING THIS EVENING AS ARCTIC
FRONT PASS THRU. BLUSTERY WEST TO SW WINDS TO TURN NW BEHIND
ARCTIC FRONT DURING TONIGHT WITH GUSTS 25-30 MPH.
07
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 216 AM CST FRI JAN 16 2026
MULTIPLE SPOKES OF VORTICITY ARE EXPECTED TO PINWHEEL THROUGH THE
BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT TODAY AND TONIGHT, RESULTING IN
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION. RECENT ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE
(HREF AND REFS) SUGGESTS LIMITED QPF (LPMM), GENERALLY UNDER 0.05
INCHES, THOUGH ISOLATED POCKETS COULD SEE UP TO 0.15 INCHES OVER
ANY SIX-HOUR PERIOD.
APPLYING THE CENTRAL ILLINOIS CLIMATOLOGICAL SNOW-TO-LIQUID RATIO
OF 12:1 SUGGESTS A NEW SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION OF 0.5 TO 1.5
INCHES. THIS IS GENERALLY A SUB-ADVISORY-TYPE SNOW EVENT. HOWEVER,
IMPACTS DEPEND ON THE TIMING AND INTENSITY OF THE PRECIPITATION.
FOR EXAMPLE, IF LOCALIZED SNOW SQUALLS DEVELOP DURING THE EVENING
COMMUTE, AS A FEW OF THE CAMS SUGGEST, THEN THE CHANCE OF MINOR
TRAVEL DISRUPTIONS INCREASES DUE TO SHARPLY REDUCED VISIBILITY
OVER SHORT DISTANCES AND SLIPPERY ROADS. BUT, AS IS TYPICAL WITH
SHOWERY PRECIPITATION, SOME AREAS MAY NOT SEE ANY NEW ACCUMULATION
TODAY.
BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL DOMINATE THE FORECAST PERIOD,
DRIVEN BY A STRONGLY NEGATIVE EAST PACIFIC OSCILLATION (EPO)
WHICH IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK
BEFORE MODERATING. THIS PATTERN WILL ESTABLISH HIGH-LATITUDE
RIDGING OVER ALASKA, DISPLACING ARCTIC AIR SOUTHWARD INTO THE
GREAT LAKES AND EVENTUALLY CENTRAL ILLINOIS THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY
NEXT WEEK.
THE PRIMARY CONCERN WILL BE DANGEROUSLY COLD TEMPERATURES. LOWS
ARE PROJECTED TO DROP INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS, RESULTING IN WIND
CHILLS FALLING BELOW ZERO EACH MORNING FROM SUNDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED TO RETURN TO MORE SEASONABLE
CONDITIONS TOWARD THE END OF NEXT WEEK.
AN ACTIVE STORM TRACK WILL COINCIDE WITH THIS COLD AIR, BRINGING
A WAVETRAIN OF DISTURBANCES ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST. THESE QUICK-
HITTING, CLIPPER-LIKE SYSTEMS MAY OCCASIONALLY IMPACT CENTRAL
ILLINOIS DIRECTLY; HOWEVER, THEY ARE NOT EXPECTED TO DEVELOP INTO
SIGNIFICANT MID-LATITUDE CYCLONES, AND THEREFORE ARE NOT
FORECASTED TO PRODUCE HEAVY SNOWFALL OVER THE NEXT WEEK.
MJA
AVIATION
(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 505 AM CST FRI JAN 16 2026
A BAND OF LIGHT SNOW IS QUICKLY PUSHING ACROSS THE CENTRAL
ILLINOIS TERMINALS THIS MORNING, RESULTING IN SPORADIC MVFR
CONDITIONS. IMPROVEMENT TO VFR LOOKS LIKE IT MIGHT LAG THE BACK
EDGE OF SNOW BY A COUPLE HOURS, BUT ULTIMATELY IMPROVE BETWEEN
15Z-18Z.
ADDITIONAL SNOW SHOWERS ARE THEN POSSIBLE LATER THIS AFTERNOON
AND INTO THE EVENING HOURS, MAINLY BETWEEN 22Z-04Z. CONFIDENCE
AND COVERAGE ARE HIGH ENOUGH TO MENTION AS A PROB30 GROUP, BUT
NOT QUITE HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN A TEMPO GROUP. NEVERTHELESS,
CONDITIONS COULD DETERIORATE INTO THE MVFR/IFR RANGE DURING THIS
TIME.
WINDS WILL REMAIN BLUSTERY THROUGH THIS TAF PERIOD, BECOMING
WESTERLY LATER THIS MORNING WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS NEAR 20 KTS.
MJA
ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
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