197
FXUS63 KILX 161752
AFDILX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
1152 AM CST FRI JAN 16 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- LIGHT, HIT-OR-MISS SNOW SHOWERS TODAY: SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS
MAY PRODUCE UP TO 1 TO 2 INCHES IN SPOTS, WITH SOME AREAS SEEING
LITTLE OR NO ACCUMULATION. BRIEF SNOW SQUALLS, ESPECIALLY
DURING THE EVENING COMMUTE, COULD CAUSE LOCALIZED VISIBILITY
DROPS AND SLICK TRAVEL.
- DANGEROUS COLD IS THE MAIN CONCERN: A PERSISTENT COLD PATTERN
WILL BRING SINGLE-DIGIT LOWS AND BELOW-ZERO WIND CHILLS SUNDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY, WITH ONLY OCCASIONAL LIGHT SNOW AND NO MAJOR
WINTER STORMS.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1050 AM CST FRI JAN 16 2026
SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO FORECAST INTO TONIGHT WITH CHANCES OF
SNOW SHOWERS AND TEMPERATURES. A BAND OF LIGHT SNOW AND FLURRIES
WAS ALONG AND SE OF A DANVILLE TO EFFINGHAM LINE, AND SOME OF THIS
IS VIRGA WITH DRY AIR AT LOWER LEVELS WITH DEWPOINTS IN LOW TO MID
20S FROM I-55 EAST. THIS VERY LIGHT PCPN WAS ASSOCIATED WITH AN
OCCLUDED FRONT PUSHING TOWARD THE WABASH RIVER AROUND 18Z/NOON
TODAY. OTHERWISE MUCH OF CWA IS DRY AFTER RECEIVED HALF TO 1 INCH
OF SNOWFALL LAST NIGHT. BREEZY WEST TO SW WINDS 10-20 MPH AND A
FEW GUSTS 22-32 MPH WAS BRINGING IN MILDER AIR WITH TEMPS 32-38F
OVER MUCH OF CWA AT 10 AM. AN ARCTIC FRONT PUSHING SE INTO CENTRAL
PARTS OF IOWA AND WI DURING MIDDAY, WILL PUSH SE THRU CENTRAL IL
DURING THIS EVENING AND PASS THRU SOUTHEAST IL EARLY OVERNIGHT.
THERE IS STILL SOME POTENTIAL OF BRIEF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW
BURSTS AND POSSIBLE SNOW SQUALLS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
FROM PEORIA AND BLOOMINGTON SOUTH. THOUGH THIS SETUP IS NOT QUITE
AS STRONG AS THIS PAST WED MORNING WAS IN NORTHEAST AND EAST
CENTRAL IL. SNOW SQUALL PARAMETER LEVELS PEAK AT 1-2 LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING, WHILE CAPES PEAK FROM 25-45 J/KG (JUST BELOW
THE 50 J/KG THRESHOLD). MILDER HIGHS TODAY IN THE UPPER 30S/LOWER
40S (MILDEST SW CWA) WITH TEMPS FALLING LATE THIS AFTERNOON OVER
IL RIVER VALLEY AND OVER REST OF CWA DURING THIS EVENING AS ARCTIC
FRONT PASS THRU. BLUSTERY WEST TO SW WINDS TO TURN NW BEHIND
ARCTIC FRONT DURING TONIGHT WITH GUSTS 25-30 MPH.
07
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 216 AM CST FRI JAN 16 2026
MULTIPLE SPOKES OF VORTICITY ARE EXPECTED TO PINWHEEL THROUGH THE
BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT TODAY AND TONIGHT, RESULTING IN
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION. RECENT ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE
(HREF AND REFS) SUGGESTS LIMITED QPF (LPMM), GENERALLY UNDER 0.05
INCHES, THOUGH ISOLATED POCKETS COULD SEE UP TO 0.15 INCHES OVER
ANY SIX-HOUR PERIOD.
APPLYING THE CENTRAL ILLINOIS CLIMATOLOGICAL SNOW-TO-LIQUID RATIO
OF 12:1 SUGGESTS A NEW SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION OF 0.5 TO 1.5
INCHES. THIS IS GENERALLY A SUB-ADVISORY-TYPE SNOW EVENT. HOWEVER,
IMPACTS DEPEND ON THE TIMING AND INTENSITY OF THE PRECIPITATION.
FOR EXAMPLE, IF LOCALIZED SNOW SQUALLS DEVELOP DURING THE EVENING
COMMUTE, AS A FEW OF THE CAMS SUGGEST, THEN THE CHANCE OF MINOR
TRAVEL DISRUPTIONS INCREASES DUE TO SHARPLY REDUCED VISIBILITY
OVER SHORT DISTANCES AND SLIPPERY ROADS. BUT, AS IS TYPICAL WITH
SHOWERY PRECIPITATION, SOME AREAS MAY NOT SEE ANY NEW ACCUMULATION
TODAY.
BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL DOMINATE THE FORECAST PERIOD,
DRIVEN BY A STRONGLY NEGATIVE EAST PACIFIC OSCILLATION (EPO)
WHICH IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK
BEFORE MODERATING. THIS PATTERN WILL ESTABLISH HIGH-LATITUDE
RIDGING OVER ALASKA, DISPLACING ARCTIC AIR SOUTHWARD INTO THE
GREAT LAKES AND EVENTUALLY CENTRAL ILLINOIS THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY
NEXT WEEK.
THE PRIMARY CONCERN WILL BE DANGEROUSLY COLD TEMPERATURES. LOWS
ARE PROJECTED TO DROP INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS, RESULTING IN WIND
CHILLS FALLING BELOW ZERO EACH MORNING FROM SUNDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED TO RETURN TO MORE SEASONABLE
CONDITIONS TOWARD THE END OF NEXT WEEK.
AN ACTIVE STORM TRACK WILL COINCIDE WITH THIS COLD AIR, BRINGING
A WAVETRAIN OF DISTURBANCES ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST. THESE QUICK-
HITTING, CLIPPER-LIKE SYSTEMS MAY OCCASIONALLY IMPACT CENTRAL
ILLINOIS DIRECTLY; HOWEVER, THEY ARE NOT EXPECTED TO DEVELOP INTO
SIGNIFICANT MID-LATITUDE CYCLONES, AND THEREFORE ARE NOT
FORECASTED TO PRODUCE HEAVY SNOWFALL OVER THE NEXT WEEK.
MJA
AVIATION
(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1155 AM CST FRI JAN 16 2026
BROKEN TO OVERCAST MVFR CEILINGS ARE LIFTING TO VFR CEILINGS EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON WITH CEILINGS 3-5K FT BECOMING MORE COMMON AND
LARGER BREAKS IN LOW CLOUDS TO OCCUR DURING 1ST HALF OF THE
AFTERNOON. CMI STILL HAS MVFR CEILING BUT SHOULD LIFT TO VFR IN
NEXT HOUR OR SO. AN APPROACHING ARCTIC COLD FRONT OVER CENTRAL
WI/IA TO BRING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS STARTING BETWEEN
21-23Z (PIA FIRST) AND DIMINISH LATE EVENING. LATEST CAMS SHOWING
BEST CHANCE OF THESE SOUTH OF PIA AND BMI TO HAVE PROB30 GROUPS
FOR MVFR CONDITIONS ALONG I-72 TAF SITES AT SPI, DEC AND CMI. WEST
TO SW WINDS TO VEER WNW WITH PASSAGE OF ARCTIC COLD FRONT DURING
EARLY TO MID EVENING WITH GUSTS 18-26 KTS EXPECTED AT TIMES INTO
SAT. HRRR IS SHOWING LOW END VFR OR HIGH END MVFR CEILINGS DURING
TONIGHT AND ESPECIALLY ON SATURDAY WHEN SCATTERED FLURRIES
POSSIBLE WITH STRONG MID/UPPER LEVEL TROF AND ASSOCIATED 525
DECAMETER 500 MB LOW MOVING INTO CENTRAL IL BY SAT AFTERNOON.
07
ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
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