820
FXUS63 KILX 162040
AFDILX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
240 PM CST FRI JAN 16 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS MAY PRODUCE UP A HALF TO 1 INCH IN SPOTS,
WITH SOME AREAS SEEING LITTLE OR NO ACCUMULATION. BRIEF SNOW
SQUALLS, ESPECIALLY DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
COMMUTE, COULD CAUSE LOCALIZED VISIBILITY DROPS AND SLICK
TRAVEL.
- DANGEROUS COLD IS THE MAIN CONCERN: A PERSISTENT COLD PATTERN
WILL BRING SINGLE DIGIT LOWS AND BELOW ZERO WIND CHILLS SATURDAY
NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING, WITH ONLY A CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS OR FLURRIES THIS WEEKEND, MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 200 PM CST FRI JAN 16 2026
THE 20Z/2 PM SURFACE MAP SHOWS 995 MB LOW PRESSURE OVER CENTRAL
UPPER MI WITH AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT EXTENDING THROUGH CENTRAL WI
INTO EASTERN IOWA. A STRONG 516 DECAMETER 500 MB LOW WAS SPINNING OVER
CENTRAL UPPER MI AND ANOTHER STRONG 518 DECAMETER 500 MB LOW OVER
NORTHERN MN. A DEEPENING MID/UPPER LEVEL TROF WAS OVER THE MIDWEST
WITH A STRONG SHORT WAVE OVER THE EASTERN DAKOTAS. RADAR MOSAIC
SHOWS ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS (POSSIBLY MIXED WITH
LIGHT RAIN) RECENTLY DEVELOPING ALONG AND NW OF THE IL RIVER, BUT
WERE MORE NUMEROUS FURTHER WEST OF IL OVER IOWA AND
CENTRAL AND WESTERN MO. ALSO A BAND OF LIGHT RAIN/SNOW WAS OVER
FAR SOUTHEAST IL, AFFECTING MAINLY SE PART OF LAWRENCE COUNTY WITH
LIGHT SNOW AT THE MT CARMEL AIRPORT. BREEZY WEST TO SW WINDS
GUSTING 20-30 MPH BROUGHT IN MILDER UPPER 30S/LOWER 40S EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE CWA, EXCEPT MID 30S IN LAWRENCE COUNTY.
THE ARCTIC COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO TRACK SOUTHEAST TOWARD I-55
AROUND OR JUST AFTER 00Z/6 PM AND PASS THROUGH MUCH OF CENTRAL IL
DURING THIS EVENING, GETTING THRU SOUTHEAST IL EARLY OVERNIGHT. .
THE LATEST CAM RUNS CONTINUE TO SHOW ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS MOVING EASTWARD FROM THE IL RIVER VALLEY OVER REST OF
CENTRAL IL BY SUNSET AND INTO SOUTHEAST IL EARLY EVENING. THE SNOW
SQUALL PARAMETERS BY SPC SHOW AN UPTICK IN PARAMETERS BETWEEN
23Z-02Z FROM I-72 NORTH. THE BEST INSTABILITY CONTINUES TO BE
OVER SW CWA LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING, MAINLY AFTER SUNSET
AND WEAKENS DURING MID/LATE EVENING. HAVE INCREASE CHANCES OF SNOW
SHOWERS TO 30-50% DURING LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER MUCH OF
CWA. MAINLY JUST A DUSTING OVER MOST AREAS BUT A FEW SPOTS COULD
SEE A QUICK HALF TO 1 INCH OF SNOW IN HEAVIER SNOW BURST ALONG
WITH REDUCED VSBYS BELOW A MILE AND WIND GUSTS OF 30-40 MPH. SNOW
SHOWERS BECOME MORE ISOLATED AND LIGHTER OVERNIGHT. COLDER LOWS
TONIGHT IN THE MID TO UPPER TEENS IN CENTRAL IL AND LOWER 20S IN
SOUTHEAST IL.
THE VERY STRONG MID/UPPER LEVEL TROF TO DIG INTO IL DURING
SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING AND WE WILL LIKELY SEE MORE ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS
ESPECIALLY NORTH OF I-70. BLUSTERY WEST TO WNW WINDS GUSTING 20-30
MPH ALONG WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL NOT ALLOW MUCH TEMPERATURE
RISE. HIGHS SAT IN THE LOW TO MID 20S, RANGING FROM UPPER TEENS IN
KNOX AND STARK COUNTIES TO THE UPPER 20S SE OF I-70. LOWS SAT
NIGHT RANGE FROM 8-13F WITH WIND CHILLS GETTING DOWN TO ZERO TO 6
BELOW NORTH OF I-70. YET ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROF DIGS INTO IL
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND INCREASES CLOUDS AND COULD BRING MORE
ISOLATED LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES. SW BREEZES SUNDAY WITH
HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S. ANOTHER ARCTIC COLD FRONT PUSHES SE
THROUGH CENTRAL IL DURING SUNDAY NIGHT REINFORCING THE POLAR AIR
MASS. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT IN THE SINGLE DIGITS IN CENTRAL IL AND
LOWER TEENS IN SOUTHEAST IL. WIND CHILLS OF 10-18 BELOW ZERO
OVERNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING NORTH OF I-70 AND MAY
NEED A COLD WEATHER ADVISORY THEN. BRISK NW WINDS CONTINUE ON
MONDAY WITH MORE SUNSHINE, BUT VERY COLD HIGHS IN THE TEENS
EXCEPT NEAR 20F SOUTH OF I-70. BITTER COLD TEMPS CONTINUE MON
NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND WIND CHILLS IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS BELOW ZERO AS WEST TO NW WINDS GRADUALLY SUBSIDE.
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE TN AND LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY ON TUE
WITH SW BREEZES DEVELOPING OVER IL AND NUDGING TEMPS BACK UP
CLOSER TO FREEZING, WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 20S TO AROUND 30F.
LOWS TUE NIGHT MOSTLY IN THE LOWER 20S. MUCH MILDER TEMPERATURES
RETURN WED WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S, MILDEST IN
SOUTHEAST IL AS DRY WEATHER CONTINUES AS LOW PRESSURE PASSES BY
NORTH OF IL OVER THE GREAT LAKES. THE EXTENDED MODELS HAVE TRENDED
FURTHER SOUTH WITH SOUTHERN STREAM WX SYSTEM NEXT THU/FRI AS THE
ECMWF WAS SHOWING WITH YESTERDAYS RUNS. WE MAY ACTUALLY BE AFFECT
BY NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEM PASSING FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO
THE GREAT LAKES AND IF PCPN OCCURS IS COULD BE A MIX.
THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER (CPC) 8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR JAN
21-29TH HAS A 40-50% CHANCE OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND
A 40-45% CHANCE OF ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION. SO THE RATHER
ACTIVE AND COLDER WEATHER LOOKS LOOKS LIKELY TO CONTINUE THE NEXT
TWO WEEKS OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST IL.
07
AVIATION
(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1155 AM CST FRI JAN 16 2026
BROKEN TO OVERCAST MVFR CEILINGS ARE LIFTING TO VFR CEILINGS EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON WITH CEILINGS 3-5K FT BECOMING MORE COMMON AND
LARGER BREAKS IN LOW CLOUDS TO OCCUR DURING 1ST HALF OF THE
AFTERNOON. CMI STILL HAS MVFR CEILING BUT SHOULD LIFT TO VFR IN
NEXT HOUR OR SO. AN APPROACHING ARCTIC COLD FRONT OVER CENTRAL
WI/IA TO BRING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS STARTING BETWEEN
21-23Z (PIA FIRST) AND DIMINISH LATE EVENING. LATEST CAMS SHOWING
BEST CHANCE OF THESE SOUTH OF PIA AND BMI TO HAVE PROB30 GROUPS
FOR MVFR CONDITIONS ALONG I-72 TAF SITES AT SPI, DEC AND CMI. WEST
TO SW WINDS TO VEER WNW WITH PASSAGE OF ARCTIC COLD FRONT DURING
EARLY TO MID EVENING WITH GUSTS 18-26 KTS EXPECTED AT TIMES INTO
SAT. HRRR IS SHOWING LOW END VFR OR HIGH END MVFR CEILINGS DURING
TONIGHT AND ESPECIALLY ON SATURDAY WHEN SCATTERED FLURRIES
POSSIBLE WITH STRONG MID/UPPER LEVEL TROF AND ASSOCIATED 525
DECAMETER 500 MB LOW MOVING INTO CENTRAL IL BY SAT AFTERNOON.
07
ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
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