603
FXUS63 KILX 171146
AFDILX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
546 AM CST SAT JAN 17 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- THE PRIMARY CONCERN REMAINS DANGEROUSLY COLD TEMPERATURES, WITH
LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND SUB-ZERO WIND CHILLS EACH MORNING
FROM SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
- AN ACTIVE STORM TRACK WILL BRING A SERIES OF QUICK-MOVING
SYSTEMS TO THE REGION OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. WHILE
SIGNIFICANT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE NOT FORECASTED, THESE
DISTURBANCES WILL PRODUCE PERIODIC ORGANIZED SNOW SHOWERS, WHICH
MAY LEAD TO PERIODS OF REDUCED VISIBILITY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 221 AM CST SAT JAN 17 2026
A STRONGLY NEGATIVE EAST PACIFIC OSCILLATION (EPO) IS EXPECTED TO
PERSIST THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK BEFORE MODERATING. THIS
PATTERN WILL MAINTAIN HIGH-LATITUDE RIDGING OVER ALASKA,
DISPLACING ARCTIC AIR SOUTHWARD INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND
EVENTUALLY CENTRAL ILLINOIS THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THE PRIMARY CONCERN WILL BE DANGEROUSLY COLD TEMPERATURES. LOWS
ARE FORECAST TO DROP INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS, RESULTING IN SUB-ZERO
WIND CHILLS EACH MORNING FROM SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
TEMPERATURES ARE THEN ANTICIPATED TO RETURN TO MORE SEASONABLE
CONDITIONS TOWARD THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
AN ACTIVE STORM TRACK WILL COINCIDE WITH THIS COLD AIR, BRINGING
A WAVETRAIN OF DISTURBANCES ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST. THESE QUICK-
HITTING, CLIPPER-LIKE SYSTEMS MAY OCCASIONALLY IMPACT CENTRAL
ILLINOIS DIRECTLY; HOWEVER, THEY ARE NOT EXPECTED TO DEVELOP INTO
SIGNIFICANT MID-LATITUDE CYCLONES, AND THEREFORE ARE NOT
FORECASTED TO PRODUCE HEAVY SNOWFALL OVER THE NEXT WEEK.
THE FIRST DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE MID-MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON. DESPITE SHALLOW MOISTURE DEPTH, THE
EXCEPTIONALLY COLD 850-MB TEMPERATURES (-17 TO -19 C) SUGGEST THE
MOISTURE WILL BRIEFLY ALIGN WITH THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE (DGZ),
SUPPORTING A FEW ORGANIZED SNOW SHOWERS. DUE TO HIGH SNOW-TO-
LIQUID RATIOS (SLRS) AND BLUSTERY WINDS, MOST OF THE SNOW IS
EXPECTED TO BLOW AROUND RATHER THAN ACCUMULATE.
A COMPACT SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL ILLINOIS SUNDAY
AFTERNOON COULD TRIGGER ANOTHER ROUND OF ORGANIZED SNOW SHOWERS.
WHILE LOW-LEVEL DRY AIR AND LARGE DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS MIGHT LIMIT
SNOW ACCUMULATION, STRONG ASCENT AHEAD OF THE TROUGH, POSITIONED
WITHIN A DEEP DGZ, SUGGESTS A POTENTIAL FOR SEEDER-FEEDER
ENHANCEMENT. THIS MECHANISM COULD LEAD TO A QUICK, HEAVY BURST OF
SNOW AS THE SYSTEM PASSES. ONCE AGAIN, THE COMBINATION OF HIGH
SNOW RATIOS AND GUSTY WINDS MAY RESULT IN MORE BLOWING SNOW THAN
ACCUMULATION.
TWO MORE WEAK DISTURBANCES WILL CROSS THE REGION: ONE MONDAY
EVENING AND ANOTHER ON WEDNESDAY. THESE ARE EXPECTED TO BE
NUISANCES RATHER THAN IMPACTFUL EVENTS. THE POTENTIAL FOR A MORE
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EVENT, INVOLVING A WINTRY MIX OR FREEZING
RAIN, IS CURRENTLY NOT ANTICIPATED UNTIL NEXT WEEKEND. THIS CHANGE
IS PROJECTED TO OCCUR DUE TO THE COLLAPSE OF THE EASTERN PACIFIC
RIDGE, WHICH WILL ALLOW MILDER AIR FROM THE GULF TO MOVE NORTHWARD
INTO THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY.
MJA
AVIATION
(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 531 AM CST SAT JAN 17 2026
AN AREA OF LOWER CEILINGS WILL CONTINUE ITS SLOW PUSH ACROSS THE
CENTRAL ILLINOIS TERMINALS THIS MORNING. SITES MAY OCCASIONALLY
FALL TO MVFR WITHIN THIS AREA OF LOWER CLOUDS, BUT THE TREND IS
FOR VFR CONDITIONS TO BE THE DOMINANT FLIGHT CATEGORY THROUGH
ABOUT 18Z. AFTER THAT TIME, A MORE CONVINCING PUSH OF MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGIONAL TERMINALS IN ACCORDANCE
WITH A BAND OF LIGHT SNOW. LOW CEILINGS WILL THEN SCATTER OUT LATE
TONIGHT, WITH VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE BOARD BY SUNDAY MORNING.
SURFACE WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL REMAIN WESTERLY AND
BLUSTERY, WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS BETWEEN 10-15 KTS AND OCCASIONAL
GUSTS BETWEEN 20-25 KTS.
MJA
ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
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