407
FXUS63 KILX 171756
AFDILX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
1156 AM CST SAT JAN 17 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- THE PRIMARY CONCERN REMAINS DANGEROUSLY COLD TEMPERATURES, WITH
LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND SUB-ZERO WIND CHILLS EACH MORNING
FROM SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
- AN ACTIVE STORM TRACK WILL BRING A SERIES OF QUICK-MOVING
SYSTEMS TO THE REGION OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. WHILE
SIGNIFICANT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE NOT FORECASTED, THESE
DISTURBANCES WILL PRODUCE PERIODIC ORGANIZED SNOW SHOWERS, WHICH
MAY LEAD TO PERIODS OF REDUCED VISIBILITY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 221 AM CST SAT JAN 17 2026
A STRONGLY NEGATIVE EAST PACIFIC OSCILLATION (EPO) IS EXPECTED TO
PERSIST THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK BEFORE MODERATING. THIS
PATTERN WILL MAINTAIN HIGH-LATITUDE RIDGING OVER ALASKA,
DISPLACING ARCTIC AIR SOUTHWARD INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND
EVENTUALLY CENTRAL ILLINOIS THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THE PRIMARY CONCERN WILL BE DANGEROUSLY COLD TEMPERATURES. LOWS
ARE FORECAST TO DROP INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS, RESULTING IN SUB-ZERO
WIND CHILLS EACH MORNING FROM SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
TEMPERATURES ARE THEN ANTICIPATED TO RETURN TO MORE SEASONABLE
CONDITIONS TOWARD THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
AN ACTIVE STORM TRACK WILL COINCIDE WITH THIS COLD AIR, BRINGING
A WAVETRAIN OF DISTURBANCES ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST. THESE QUICK-
HITTING, CLIPPER-LIKE SYSTEMS MAY OCCASIONALLY IMPACT CENTRAL
ILLINOIS DIRECTLY; HOWEVER, THEY ARE NOT EXPECTED TO DEVELOP INTO
SIGNIFICANT MID-LATITUDE CYCLONES, AND THEREFORE ARE NOT
FORECASTED TO PRODUCE HEAVY SNOWFALL OVER THE NEXT WEEK.
THE FIRST DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE MID-MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON. DESPITE SHALLOW MOISTURE DEPTH, THE
EXCEPTIONALLY COLD 850-MB TEMPERATURES (-17 TO -19 C) SUGGEST THE
MOISTURE WILL BRIEFLY ALIGN WITH THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE (DGZ),
SUPPORTING A FEW ORGANIZED SNOW SHOWERS. DUE TO HIGH SNOW-TO-
LIQUID RATIOS (SLRS) AND BLUSTERY WINDS, MOST OF THE SNOW IS
EXPECTED TO BLOW AROUND RATHER THAN ACCUMULATE.
A COMPACT SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL ILLINOIS SUNDAY
AFTERNOON COULD TRIGGER ANOTHER ROUND OF ORGANIZED SNOW SHOWERS.
WHILE LOW-LEVEL DRY AIR AND LARGE DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS MIGHT LIMIT
SNOW ACCUMULATION, STRONG ASCENT AHEAD OF THE TROUGH, POSITIONED
WITHIN A DEEP DGZ, SUGGESTS A POTENTIAL FOR SEEDER-FEEDER
ENHANCEMENT. THIS MECHANISM COULD LEAD TO A QUICK, HEAVY BURST OF
SNOW AS THE SYSTEM PASSES. ONCE AGAIN, THE COMBINATION OF HIGH
SNOW RATIOS AND GUSTY WINDS MAY RESULT IN MORE BLOWING SNOW THAN
ACCUMULATION.
TWO MORE WEAK DISTURBANCES WILL CROSS THE REGION: ONE MONDAY
EVENING AND ANOTHER ON WEDNESDAY. THESE ARE EXPECTED TO BE
NUISANCES RATHER THAN IMPACTFUL EVENTS. THE POTENTIAL FOR A MORE
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EVENT, INVOLVING A WINTRY MIX OR FREEZING
RAIN, IS CURRENTLY NOT ANTICIPATED UNTIL NEXT WEEKEND. THIS CHANGE
IS PROJECTED TO OCCUR DUE TO THE COLLAPSE OF THE EASTERN PACIFIC
RIDGE, WHICH WILL ALLOW MILDER AIR FROM THE GULF TO MOVE NORTHWARD
INTO THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY.
MJA
AVIATION
(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1150 AM CST SAT JAN 17 2026
A STRONG 523 DECAMETER 500 MB LOW OVER SOUTHEAST IOWA WILL MOVE
ACROSS CENTRAL IL INTO MID AFTERNOON AND PIVOT INTO NORTHERN IN
BY SUNSET. WE HAD A TEMPORARY CLEARING OF LOW CLOUDS THIS MORNING,
BUT BROKEN STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS WITH BASES OF 2.5-4.5K FT HAVE
MOVED INTO AREAS FROM I-55 NW AND WILL MOVE INTO DEC AND CMI NEXT
1-2 HOURS. ALSO HAVE SCATTERED LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS NW OF I-55 AND
COULD BRIEFLY SEE MVFR VSBYS AT PIA AND BMI THIS AFTERNOON WHILE
MAINLY SCATTERED FLURRIES ALONG I-72. MVFR CLOUDS WILL BE POSSIBLE
THROUGH THIS EVENING, THEN SCATTERED OUT FROM THE WEST BETWEEN
06-09Z. NEXT SHORT WAVE TROF TO RETURN LOW CLOUDS AND LIGHT SNOW
CHANCES SUNDAY AFTERNOON, SO AFTER THIS 18Z TAF PACKAGE. WEST TO
WNW WINDS 12-18 KTS AND GUSTS 20-27 KTS TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH
DURING TONIGHT TO 7-11 KTS AND LESS GUSTS BY OVERNIGHT. WINDS VEER
SW SUNDAY MORNING AND INCREASE TO 10-14 KTS WITH GUSTS AROUND
20KTS AFTER 14-15Z SUNDAY.
07
ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
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