701
FXUS63 KILX 180445
AFDILX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
1045 PM CST SAT JAN 17 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- THE PRIMARY CONCERN REMAINS DANGEROUSLY COLD TEMPERATURES, WITH
LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND SUB-ZERO WIND CHILLS EACH MORNING
FROM SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. THE COLDEST WIND CHILLS ARE
EXPECTED OVERNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING. THE HREF HAS
AN 80-100% CHANCE OF WIND CHILLS OF 15 BELOW OR COLDER FROM I-72
NORTH. WIND CHILLS OF 10 BELOW LIKELY COULD GET AS FAR SOUTH AS
I-70 BY DAYBREAK MONDAY.
- AN ACTIVE STORM TRACK WILL BRING A SERIES OF QUICK-MOVING
SYSTEMS TO THE REGION OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. WHILE
SIGNIFICANT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE NOT FORECASTED, THESE
DISTURBANCES WILL PRODUCE PERIODIC ORGANIZED SNOW SHOWERS, WHICH
MAY LEAD TO PERIODS OF REDUCED VISIBILITY AND SLICK SPOTS ON
UNTREATED ROADWAYS.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 857 PM CST SAT JAN 17 2026
THE SNOW ACTIVITY ACROSS SOUTHEAST IOWA LARGELY DIMINISHED AS IT
CROSSED THE MS RIVER INTO WEST-CENTRAL IL, THOUGH LIGHT SNOW HAS
BEEN OBSERVED AT TIMES IN LOCATIONS MAINLY NEAR AND NORTH OF A
ROUGHLY MACOMB TO EL PASO LINE. WE UPDATED THE SHORT TERM POPS TO
ACCOUNT FOR THIS WANING ACTIVITY OVER THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS.
ANOTHER SUBTLE CHANGE WAS UPDATING THE WINDS AND HOURLY
TEMPERATURES TOMORROW NIGHT BY BLENDING TO THE 00Z HRRR AND
CONSSHORT, WHICH ADVERTISE A SHARP DROP IN APPARENT TEMPERATURES
FOLLOWING THE FRONT WITH MANY LOCATIONS EXPERIENCING SUB -20
WIND CHILLS BY EARLY MONDAY MORNING. EVEN IF THIS IS OVERDONE, WE
SUSPECT A COLD WEATHER ADVISORY WILL (95% CHANCE) BE WARRANTED
FOR AT LEAST AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF I-70, IF NOT THE ENTIRE
COUNTY WARNING AREA (CWA). THERE IS EVEN SOME POTENTIAL (20-30%
CHANCE, PER HREF) FOR LOCATIONS IN OUR FAR NORTHWEST (MACOMB TO
LACON) TO BRIEFLY TOUCH EXTREME COLD WARNING CRITERIA (-25 OR
COLDER WIND CHILLS). FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM VARIOUS CAMS ALSO
SUGGEST WIND GUSTS MAY APPROACH 40 MPH AT TIMES, MAKING IT FEEL
EVEN COLDER THAN THE TRUE WIND CHILL, WHICH IS CALCULATED OFF OF
SUSTAINED WINDS (FORECAST TO RUN 18-25 MPH). WE ENCOURAGE FOLKS
TO STAY IN IF POSSIBLE, DRESS IN MULTIPLE LAYERS IF VENTURING
OUTDOORS, AND TO KEEP AN EMERGENCY SUPPLY KIT IN THEIR CARS; CHECK
IN ON YOUR NEIGHBORS TOO.
BUMGARDNER
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 245 PM CST SAT JAN 17 2026
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED AND
SPREAD INTO CENTRAL AND NORTHERN IL (NW OF A CHAMPAIGN TO
TAYLORVILLE LINE) BY MID AFTERNOON. PIA VSBY GOT DOWN TO 2-3 MILES
AT TIMES WITH THESE SNOW SHOWERS SINCE 18Z/NOON. A WEAK SURFACE
TROF WAS PUSHING SE TOWARD DANVILLE AND SHELBYVILLE AT MID
AFTERNOON WHILE THE MAIN COLD FRONT WAS SE OF IL OVER SOUTHEAST IN
AND NW PARTS OF KY AND TN.
ALOFT A STRONG 524 DECAMETER 500 MB LOW NEAR THE IL/IA/MO BORDER
WILL PIVOT ACROSS CENTRAL IL THIS AFTERNOON AND LIFT INTO NORTHERN
IN DURING EARLY EVENING.STEEP LAPSE RATES WITH THIS STRONG
MID/UPPER LOW IS HELPING TO PRODUCE THE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OVER CENTRAL/NORTHERN IL AND THEY SHOULD
DIMINISH FROM THE WEST DURING EARLY TO MID EVENING AS UPPER LEVEL
LOW PASSES BY AND LOSING DIURNAL ENHANCEMENT. BRISK WSW TO WNW
WINDS GUSTING 23-33 MPH WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE DURING TONIGHT
THOUGH STILL REMAIN GUSTY MUCH OF THIS EVENING. LOW CLOUDS TO
DECREASE SOME OVERNIGHT WITH PRETTY COLD LOWS IN THE UPPER SINGLE
DIGITS NORTH OF I-72 AND LOWER TEENS FROM I-72 SOUTH. WIND CHILLS
SHOULD LOWER TO ZERO TO 10 BELOW ZERO NORTH OF I-70 DURING
OVERNIGHT INTO MID SUNDAY MORNING.
1010 MB LOW PRESSURE OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN TO
DIVE SOUTHEAST INTO THE UPPER MS RIVER VALLEY BY 18Z/NOON SUNDAY
AND WILL SEE ANOTHER DEEPENING MID/UPPER LEVEL TROF INTO IL
DURING SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THIS TO BRING ANOTHER CHANCE OF LIGHT
SNOW SHOWERS AND SCATTERED FLURRIES TO CENTRAL IL DURING SUNDAY
AFTERNOON INTO EARLY SUNDAY EVENING AND SOME SPOTS GETTING A LIGHT
DUSTING WITH AREAS FROM I-74 NORTH POSSIBLY SEEING UP TO A HALF
TO 1 INCH OF SNOW. HIGHS SUNDAY IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S, COLDEST
FROM I-74 NORTHEAST.
ANOTHER ARCTIC COLD FRONT TO SWEEP SOUTHEAST THROUGH IL DURING
SUNDAY EVENING AND WILL BRING EVEN COLDER AIR INTO THE REGION
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT OF ZERO TO 5 ABOVE FROM
I-72 NORTH AND AROUND 10F IN SOUTHEAST IL FROM I-70 SOUTH. STRONG
NW WINDS BEHIND THE ARCTIC FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT TO BRING WIND CHILLS
DOWN TO 10-20 BELOW ZERO FROM I-70 NORTH OVERNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY MORNING. WE MAY LIKELY NEED A COLD WEATHER ADVISORY
DURING THIS TIME FRAME FROM I-70 NORTH. HIGHS MONDAY ONLY IN THE
LOW TO MID TEENS IN CENTRAL IL AND 15-20F IN SOUTHEAST IL. CHANCES
OF SNOW SHOWERS ON MONDAY SHOULD BE CONFINED TO THE GREAT LAKES
REGION SO WE KEPT A DRY FORECAST. BRISK WNW WINDS CONTINUE ON
MONDAY KEEPING TEMPS WELL BELOW NORMAL ALONG WITH BITTER COLD WIND
CHILLS ONLY MODIFYING TO 5 BELOW TO 5 ABOVE DURING MONDAY
AFTERNOON. VERY COLD YET MONDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS AND WIND CHILLS ZERO TO 10 BELOW.
A 1035 MB CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES INTO THE TN AND LOWER MS
RIVER VALLEYS ON TUE WITH RETURN SW WINDS STARTING TO MODIFY
TEMPS. HIGHS TUE IN THE UPPER 20S AND LOWER 30S. BREEZIER WEST TO
SW WINDS WED WARM TEMPS UP MORE INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S, BUT
RANGE FROM LOWER 30S OVER KNOX, STARK AND MARSHALL COUNTIES TO THE
LOWER 40S IN SOUTHEAST IL. MODELS SHOW A WX SYSTEM PASSING NORTH
OF IL INTO THE GREAT LAKES OVER TUE NIGHT AND EARLY WED AND MAY
GET CLOSE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW ESPECIALLY
NORTHERN CWA. IT WILL SEND A COLD FRONT SE THROUGH CENTRAL/SE IL
ON WED WITH THE FRONT REACHING NEAR THE OHIO RIVER BY SUNSET WED.
MODELS ARE TRENDING DRIER NOW ON THU AND THU NIGHT WITH WX SYSTEM
OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND GREAT LAKES. MODELS DIVERGE WITH
HANDLING WINTER WX SYSTEM LATE NEXT WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND. GFS
MODEL IS MUCH WETTER THAN ECMWF AND GEM MODELS ESPECIALLY DURING
NEXT WEEKEND. WE HAVE JUST SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN ON FRIDAY,
THEN CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW FRI NIGHT AND SATURDAY WITH MIXED PCPN
POSSIBLE IN SOUTHEAST IL WHERE OVERRUNNING COULD OCCUR WITH LOW
PRESSURE TROF SOUTH OF IL. HIGHS THU IN THE UPPER 20S/LOWER 30S
MODERATE INTO THE 30S FRI WITH SOUTHEAST IL NEAR 40F. TEMPS THEN
DROP DURING NEXT WEEKEND AS MORE COLDER AIR ARRIVES FROM CANADA.
THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER (CPC) 8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR JAN
24-30TH HAS A 50-60% CHANCE OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES OVER
CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST IL, WITH PRECIPITATION TRENDING NEAR NORMAL.
FROM JAN 1-16TH, SPRINGFIELD, LINCOLN AND PEORIA HAVE BEEN ABOUT 8
DEGREES WARMER THAN NORMAL. SO THE NEXT TWO WEEKS OR 2ND HALF OF
THE MONTH LOOKS COLDER THAN NORMAL.
07
AVIATION
(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1045 PM CST SAT JAN 17 2026
CLOUD COVER AND LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE TO SPREAD EAST ACROSS
CENTRAL IL LATE SATURDAY EVENING, LIKELY (60-80% CHANCE) REACHING
DEC AND CMI OVER THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS. HREF/GLAMP GUIDANCE
SUGGEST THIS WAVE OF CEILINGS WILL DEPART TOWARDS SUNRISE, WITH
VFR CONDITIONS UNTIL THE NEXT WAVE OF POTENTIAL (50-60% CHANCE)
LIGHT SNOW ARRIVES MID-LATE AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BACK TO A
SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY DIRECTION DURING THE MORNING, THEN SHARPLY
VEER TO WESTERLY AND INCREASE BEHIND A COLD FRONT SUNDAY EVENING
WHEN GUSTS TO 30 KT WILL BE COMMON.
BUMGARDNER
ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page