332
FXUS63 KILX 180905
AFDILX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
305 AM CST SUN JAN 18 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- THE PRIMARY CONCERN IS DANGEROUSLY COLD TEMPERATURES,
PARTICULARLY BY MONDAY MORNING WHEN THERE IS REASONABLY HIGH
CONFIDENCE THAT WIND CHILL VALUES WILL FALL BETWEEN 10 AND 20
DEGREES BELOW ZERO.
- AN ACTIVE STORM TRACK WILL BRING A SERIES OF QUICK-MOVING
SYSTEMS TO THE REGION OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. WHILE
SIGNIFICANT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE NOT FORECASTED, THESE
DISTURBANCES WILL PRODUCE PERIODIC ORGANIZED SNOW SHOWERS, WHICH
MAY LEAD TO PERIODS OF REDUCED VISIBILITY.
DISCUSSION
(THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 303 AM CST SUN JAN 18 2026
HIGH-LATITUDE RIDGING OVER ALASKA WILL HELP DISPLACE ARCTIC AIR
SOUTHWARD INTO CENTRAL ILLINOIS THROUGH TUESDAY.
THE PRIMARY CONCERN WILL BE DANGEROUSLY COLD TEMPERATURES. LOWS
ARE FORECAST TO DROP INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS, WITH SUB-ZERO WIND
CHILLS FORECASTED EACH MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY. AMONG THEM, MONDAY
MORNING STANDS OUT AS THE MOST HAZARDOUS AS A GUSTY, ARCTIC FRONT
RACES ACROSS THE MIDWEST. STEEPENING LAPSE RATES AMID STRONG COLD
ADVECTION WILL HELP SUPPORT FREQUENT 30-40 MPH GUSTS. THE
COMBINATION OF BLUSTERY NORTH WINDS AND VERY COLD AMBIENT
TEMPERATURES SHOULD SUPPORT WIND CHILL VALUES OF 10 TO 20 DEGREES
BELOW ZERO BY MONDAY MORNING. A COLD WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN
ISSUED ACROSS THE REGION TO RAISE AWARENESS OF THESE DANGEROUS
CONDITIONS.
TEMPERATURES ARE THEN ANTICIPATED TO MODERATE BY THE MIDDLE OF
THE WEEK AS THE EASTERN PACIFIC RIDGE COLLAPSES, ALLOWING MILDER
GULF AIR TO SURGE NORTHWARD UP THE LOWER- AND MID-MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY.
AN ACTIVE STORM TRACK WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK, BRINGING A WAVETRAIN OF DISTURBANCES ACROSS THE UPPER
MIDWEST. THESE QUICK-HITTING, CLIPPER-LIKE SYSTEMS MAY
OCCASIONALLY IMPACT CENTRAL ILLINOIS DIRECTLY; HOWEVER, THEY ARE
NOT EXPECTED TO DEVELOP INTO SIGNIFICANT MID-LATITUDE CYCLONES,
AND THEREFORE ARE NOT FORECASTED TO PRODUCE HEAVY SNOWFALL.
A COMPACT SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL ILLINOIS THIS
AFTERNOON COULD TRIGGER OUR NEXT ROUND OF ORGANIZED SNOW SHOWERS.
WHILE LOW-LEVEL DRY AIR AND LARGE DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS MIGHT LIMIT
SNOW ACCUMULATION, STRONG ASCENT AHEAD OF THE TROUGH, POSITIONED
WITHIN A DEEP DGZ, SUGGESTS A POTENTIAL FOR SEEDER-FEEDER
ENHANCEMENT. THIS MECHANISM COULD LEAD TO A QUICK, BURST OF SNOW
AS THE SYSTEM PASSES. THE COMBINATION OF HIGH SNOW RATIOS AND
BLUSTERY WINDS MAY RESULT IN MORE BLOWING SNOW THAN ACCUMULATION.
TWO MORE WEAK DISTURBANCES WILL CROSS THE REGION: ONE MONDAY
EVENING AND ANOTHER ON WEDNESDAY. THESE ARE EXPECTED TO BE
NUISANCES RATHER THAN IMPACTFUL EVENTS. THE POTENTIAL FOR A MORE
SIGNIFICANT WINTER-WEATHER EVENT IS CURRENTLY NOT ANTICIPATED
UNTIL NEXT WEEKEND.
MJA
AVIATION
(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1045 PM CST SAT JAN 17 2026
CLOUD COVER AND LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE TO SPREAD EAST ACROSS
CENTRAL IL LATE SATURDAY EVENING, LIKELY (60-80% CHANCE) REACHING
DEC AND CMI OVER THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS. HREF/GLAMP GUIDANCE
SUGGEST THIS WAVE OF CEILINGS WILL DEPART TOWARDS SUNRISE, WITH
VFR CONDITIONS UNTIL THE NEXT WAVE OF POTENTIAL (50-60% CHANCE)
LIGHT SNOW ARRIVES MID-LATE AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BACK TO A
SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY DIRECTION DURING THE MORNING, THEN SHARPLY
VEER TO WESTERLY AND INCREASE BEHIND A COLD FRONT SUNDAY EVENING
WHEN GUSTS TO 30 KT WILL BE COMMON.
BUMGARDNER
ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO NOON CST MONDAY FOR
ILZ027>031-036>038-040>057-061>063.
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