067
FXUS63 KILX 182301
AFDILX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
501 PM CST SUN JAN 18 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- THE PRIMARY CONCERN IS DANGEROUSLY COLD TEMPERATURES,
PARTICULARLY LATE TONIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING WHEN THERE IS
REASONABLY HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT WIND CHILL VALUES WILL FALL
BETWEEN 10 AND 20 DEGREES BELOW ZERO. HREF HAS AN 80-100% CHANCE
OF WIND CHILLS LOWERING TO 10 BELOW OR COLDER OVER CENTRAL IL
AND 50-70% CHANCE TO 10 BELOW OR COLDER IN SOUTHEAST IL BY DAWN
MONDAY.
- AN ACTIVE STORM TRACK WILL BRING A SERIES OF QUICK-MOVING
SYSTEMS TO THE REGION OVER MUCH OF THIS WEEK. WHILE SIGNIFICANT
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE NOT FORECASTED OVER CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEAST IL, THESE DISTURBANCES WILL PRODUCE PERIODIC ORGANIZED
SNOW SHOWERS, WHICH MAY LEAD TO PERIODS OF REDUCED VISIBILITY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 245 PM CST SUN JAN 18 2026
EXTENDED THE COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FURTHER SOUTH TO INCLUDE
EFFINGHAM, JASPER, CRAWFORD, CLAY, RICHLAND AND LAWRENCE COUNTIES
FROM 3 AM TO NOON ON MONDAY, FOR WIND CHILLS GETTING DOWN TO 10
BELOW BY DAWN MONDAY MORNING. FORECAST MODELS HAVE INCREASED WIND
SPEEDS A BIT MORE BEHIND THE ARCTIC COLD FRONT PASSING THROUGH
DURING TONIGHT AND LOWERING WIND CHILLS MORE.
AT 20Z/2 PM, A 1025-1027 MB HIGH PRESSURE OVER SOUTHEAST TEXAS WAS
RIDGING NORTHEAST INTO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. A 1009 MB LOW
PRESSURE OVER WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR HAD AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT INTO
NW WI, CENTRAL IOWA AND NW MO. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MID LEVEL CLOUDS
WITH BASES FROM 8-10K FT QUICKLY SPREAD EAST OVER CWA PAST FEW
HOURS WHILE SOME BROKEN STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS WITH BASES OF 2-3K
FT LINGERED OVER PARTS OF CHAMPAIGN AND VERMILION COUNTIES, MAINLY
EAST OF CHAMPAIGN/SAVOY AIRPORT. RADAR MOSAIC SHOWS LIGHT ECHO
RETURNS NW OF BMI AND LINCOLN BUT MAY JUST BE FLURRIES AT BEST
SINCE NOT SEEING MAY GROUND TRUTH REPORTS OF LIGHT SNOW OVER NW
CWA. ALOFT A SHORT WAVE TROF WAS OVER THE UPPER MS RIVER VALLEY
AND HELPING PRODUCE LIGHT SNOW OVER PARTS OF MN, WI AND CENTRAL
AND NORTHERN IOWA AND INTO FAR NW IL BY THE GALENA/CHESTNUT
MOUNTAIN AREA. COLD TEMPERATURES WERE MOSTLY IN THE LOWER 20S,
RANGING FROM 19F AT PEORIA AND LACON TO MID 20S FROM HIGHWAY 50
SOUTH. SOUTH TO SW BREEZES OF 10-20 MPH AND GUSTS 18-25 MPH WAS
GIVING WIND CHILLS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND LOWER TEENS.
WE SHOULD SEE A BAND OF LIGHT SNOW AFFECT AREAS MAINLY FROM I-74
NORTH DURING LATE AFTERNOON INTO MID EVENING WITH MAINLY FLURRIES
POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE INTO THIS EVENING. WE HAVE A DUSTING TO AROUND
A HALF INCH OF SNOW FROM I-74 NORTH WITH 1 INCH OR MORE POSSIBLE
JUST NORTH/NE OF CWA WHERE BETTER FORCING WILL BE. THE LATEST HRRR
MODELS HAS THE ARCTIC COLD FRONT TRACKING QUICKLY SE TO GALESBURG
BY 8 PM, TO THE IL RIVER BY 9 PM, I-55 BY 930-10 PM, NEAR I-57 BY
11 PM AND PASS THE WABASH RIVER BETWEEN MIDNIGHT-1 AM TONIGHT. SW
WINDS TO SWITCH WNW TO NW AND INCREASE TO 15-25 MPH AND GUSTS
25-35 MPH. THE HREF HAS A 50-70% CHANCE OF WIND GUSTS OVER 35 MPH
NORTH OF I-70 BEHIND THE ARCTIC FRONT, BY MID EVENING OVER THE IL
RIVER VALLEY AND EAST TO THE INDIANA BORDER BY EARLY OVERNIGHT.
LOWS OVERNIGHT MOSTLY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS, RANGING FROM NEAR ZERO
BY GALESBURG TO AROUND 10F SE OF I-70. WIND CHILLS LOWER TO 15-22
BELOW BY DAWN MONDAY MORNING FROM JACKSONVILLE TO MATTOON TO
DANVILLE NORTH AND REACHING 7-13 BELOW IN SOUTHEAST IL.
STRONG CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHERN CANADIAN PRAIRIE
PROVINCES TO SETTLE INTO THE OZARKS BY SUNSET MONDAY AND RIDGING
INTO IL BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. THIS SHOULD KEEP US DRY WITH RETURN
OF SOME SUNSHINE WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES MONDAY AFTERNOON. BUT THE
SUNSHINE WILL BE DECEIVING WITH BRISK WNW WINDS KEEPING VERY COLD
TEMPERATURES AROUND. HIGHS MONDAY ONLY IN THE LOW TO MID TEENS IN
CENTRAL IL AND UPPER TEENS IN SOUTHEAST IL. WIND CHILLS TO
GRADUALLY MODIFY TO 5 ABOVE TO 5 BELOW DURING MONDAY AFTERNOON AS
WINDS GRADUALLY SUBSIDE DURING MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE SETTLES INTO THE LOWER MS AND TN RIVER VALLEY BY
TUE MORNING AND ANOTHER COLD NIGHT MON NIGHT OF 4-10F BUT LIGHTER
WINDS WITH LOWEST WIND CHILLS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO MON
NIGHT. PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES TUESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID
TO UPPER 20S CENTRAL AND NE CWA AND LOWER 30S SW CWA AND SE IL.
A NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE SYSTEM OVER NW CANADA TO DIVE INTO
THE UPPER MIDWEST TUE NIGHT AND MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES
REGION BY MIDDAY WED. THIS COULD BRING LIGHT SNOW AS FAR SOUTH AS
CENTRAL IL OVERNIGHT TUE NIGHT INTO EARLY WED MORNING ESPECIALLY
FROM I-74 NORTH WITH JUST A DUSTING POSSIBLE. WEST TO SW BREEZES
AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM BRINGS TEMPS CLOSER TO NORMAL FOR A DAY ON
WED WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S CENTRAL IL (LOWER 30S FROM
GALESBURG TO LACON NORTH) AND 40-45 IN SOUTHEAST IL. ANOTHER
NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE SKIRTING BY NORTH OF IL DURING WED
NIGHT WITH SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES FAR NORTHERN
CWA. A VERY STRONG ~490 DECAMETER 500 MB LOW DIGGING SOUTHWARD OVER
WESTERN ONTARIO THU AND PASSING NORTHEAST OF THE GREAT LAKES
FRIDAY KEEPS IL IN CYCLONIC FLOW. ALSO HAVE A STRONG ~1050 MB
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING SE INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST ON FRIDAY.
MODELS HAVE TRENDED FURTHER SOUTHWARD THIS THIS STRONG HIGH AND
ALSO KEEPING SOUTHERN STREAM STORM SYSTEMS FURTHER SOUTH OF
CENTRAL IL LATE THIS WEEK. THU AND FRI LOOK DRIER OVER CWA AND
COLDER TOO AS HIGHS THU DROP BACK INTO THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S
(SIMILAR TO TUE READINGS) WITH SOUTHEAST IL REACHING MID 30S FRI.
FOLLOWED NBM POPS WHICH ARE SLIGHT CHANCE LIGHT SNOW NW HALF OF
CWA FRI AFTERNOON AND 20-30% CHANCE LIGHT SNOW FRI NIGHT, HIGHEST
POPS IN SOUTHEAST IL. ECMWF, GFS AND GEM AND THEIR ENSEMBLES HAVE
TRENDED FURTHER SOUTH WITH SOUTHERN STREAM STORM SYSTEM THIS
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AND ALSO HAVE NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEM
NE OF OUR AREA OVER THE GREAT LAKES. WE MAY BE TRENDING DRIER
DURING THIS PERIOD BUT ALSO MORE BITTER COLD AIR LIKELY ARRIVING
DURING THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH LOWS BACK INTO THE
SINGLE DIGITS. PLUS WIND CHILLS COULD REACH ZERO TO 15 BELOW
OVERNIGHT FRI NIGHT INTO SAT MORNING NORTH OF I-70 AND 10-20 BELOW
OVER MUCH OF CWA OVERNIGHT SAT NIGHT INTO NEXT SUNDAY MORNING.
THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER (CPC) 8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR JAN
26-FEB 1ST HAS 65-75% CHANCE OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES OVER
CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST IL, WITH 40-50% CHANCE OF BELOW NORMAL
PRECIPITATION. CPC 3-4 WEEK OUTLOOK FOR JAN 31-FEB 13TH HAS A
33-40% CHANCE OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES OVER CENTRAL AND NE IL
WITH EQUAL CHANCES OF ABOVE OR BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION.
07
AVIATION
(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 501 PM CST SUN JAN 18 2026
AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WAS PUSHING SOUTHEAST ACROSS EASTERN IA LATE
THIS AFTERNOON. AHEAD OF THE FRONT SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL
OCCASIONALLY GUST NEAR 20 KT, AND SCATTERED FLURRIES AND AREAS OF
LIGHT SNOW WILL OVERSPREAD THE TERMINALS EARLY THIS EVENING. THE
FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH BETWEEN 03-05Z, VEERING WINDS WNW AND
INCREASING GUSTS TO 25-30 KT. POST FRONTAL ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHSN WILL PERSIST FOR SEVERAL HOURS, HOWEVER COVERAGE IS EXPECTED
TO BE LOW AND KEPT MENTION AT VCSH FOR NOW. WILL MONITOR UPSTREAM
TRENDS AND AMENDMENT IF NEEDED. MVFR CEILINGS ARE MOST LIKELY AT
KPIA- KBMI- KCMI BEHIND THE FRONT TONIGHT WITH IMPROVEMENT TO VFR
LATE. MAINLY CLEAR SKIES FOR THE DAYLIGHT HOURS MONDAY WITH GUSTY
WINDS CONTINUING INTO LATE AFTERNOON.
25
ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO NOON CST MONDAY FOR
ILZ027>031-036>038-040>057-061>063-066>068-071>073.
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page