217
FXUS63 KILX 191048
AFDILX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
448 AM CST MON JAN 19 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- A COLD WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH MIDDAY FOR
WIND CHILL VALUES OF 10 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW ZERO. THE THREAT OF
COLD TO OCCASIONALLY VERY COLD WEATHER WILL RETURN LATER THIS
WEEK.
- NEAR DAILY CHANCES (10-30%) FOR LIGHT SNOW EXIST THROUGHOUT THIS
WEEK AND UPCOMING WEEKEND, BUT WITH LITTLE OR NO NEW
ACCUMULATION.
DISCUSSION
(THROUGH NEXT MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 AM CST MON JAN 19 2026
PERIODS OF COLD TO OCCASIONALLY VERY COLD TEMPERATURES REMAIN THE
PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN FOR THE MIDWEST OVER THE NEXT 7 TO 10
DAYS. THE PATTERN WILL LARGELY BE DRIVEN BY A SIGNIFICANT
ALIGNMENT OF ATMOSPHERIC TELECONNECTIONS:
THE ARCTIC OSCILLATION (AO), NORTH ATLANTIC OSCILLATION (NAO), AND
EAST PACIFIC OSCILLATION (EPO) ARE ALL DEEPLY NEGATIVE.
ANALYSIS OF THIS MORNING'S NORTHERN HEMISPHERE 5-WAVE CHART
CONFIRMS THIS SETUP. A MASSIVE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IS CURRENTLY
STATIONED OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA, WHICH IS A HALLMARK OF A
DEEPLY NEGATIVE EPO. AT THE SAME TIME, AN ANOMALOUS RIDGE IS
IMPINGING UPON THE NORTH POLE, CHARACTERISTIC OF A DEEPLY NEGATIVE
AO. THIS CONFIGURATION PROMOTES THE EQUATORWARD DISPLACEMENT OF
THE POLAR VORTEX. CONSEQUENTLY, LOBES OF ARCTIC AIR ARE EXPECTED
TO PERIODICALLY SLIDE DOWN THE EASTERN PACIFIC RIDGE TOWARD THE
GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE MONTH. THE NET IMPACT
WILL BE OCCASIONAL PERIODS OF BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES, WITH
READINGS PROJECTED TO BE 10 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES.
THIS MEANS THERE WILL BE A HANDFUL OF DAYS FORTHCOMING WHERE
AFTERNOON HIGHS STRUGGLE TO RISE INTO THE 20S WHILE OVERNIGHT LOWS
FALL NEAR OR BELOW ZERO.
AN ACTIVE STORM TRACK WILL COINCIDE WITH THIS COLD AIR, BRINGING
A WAVETRAIN OF DISTURBANCES ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST. THESE QUICK-
HITTING, CLIPPER-LIKE SYSTEMS MAY OCCASIONALLY IMPACT CENTRAL
ILLINOIS DIRECTLY; HOWEVER, THEY ARE NOT EXPECTED TO DEVELOP INTO
SIGNIFICANT MID-LATITUDE CYCLONES, AND THEREFORE ARE NOT
FORECASTED TO PRODUCE SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL OVER THE NEXT WEEK.
THE TREND IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC OSCILLATION (EPO) IS A KEY
TELECONNECTION TO WATCH. WHILE CURRENTLY DEEPLY NEGATIVE, THE
INDEX IS PROJECTED TO TREND TOWARD NEUTRAL BY THE END OF THE WEEK.
THIS SHIFT PROMOTES A SLIGHT WEAKENING AND REPOSITIONING OF THE
ALASKAN RIDGE.
THE CHANGE WILL ALLOW MOISTURE TO LEAK UNDER THE RIDGE, A
DEVELOPMENT SUPPORTED BY MOST MODEL GUIDANCE. SPECIFICALLY, A
CLOSED UPPER LOW IS EXPECTED TO MEANDER PAST THE CALIFORNIA COAST
BY FRIDAY, DRAWING BOTH PACIFIC AND GULF MOISTURE INTO THE
SOUTHERN US.
THIS PATTERN IS ANTICIPATED TO LEAD TO A SUBSTANTIAL OVERRUNNING
EVENT THIS WEEKEND. WARM, MOIST AIR WILL RIDE OVER A STRONG COLD
DOME DESCENDING ACROSS THE MIDWEST, CREATING A THREAT OF SLEET AND
FREEZING RAIN ACROSS THE SOUTH, AND ACCUMULATING SNOW ACROSS
PARTS OF THE OZARKS AND TENNESSEE VALLEY.
FOR CENTRAL ILLINOIS, HOWEVER, RECENT FORECAST CYCLES HAVE
INDICATED A COLDER AND DRIER TREND FOR THE WEEKEND, WITH THE MOST
IMPACTFUL WINTRY PRECIPITATION LIKELY TRACKING JUST SOUTH OF THE
AREA.
MJA
AVIATION
(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 401 AM CST MON JAN 19 2026
EARLY MORNING SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS NARROW RIBBONS OF STRATUS
EMBEDDED IN CYCLONIC FLOW. UPSTREAM OBSERVATIONS ACROSS CENTRAL
AND SOUTHEAST IOWA REVEAL THAT THESE CEILINGS HAVE GENERALLY BEEN
IN THE MVFR CATEGORY WITH EVEN SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ACCOMPANYING
THEM.
THE CENTRAL ILLINOIS TERMINALS WILL REMAIN ON THE SOUTHERN
PERIPHERY OF THESE LOWER CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS THROUGHOUT
THE MORNING.
HAVE ULTIMATELY DESIGNATED THE COVERAGE OF CLOUDS AS SCT AND NOT
BKN, AND BELIEVE THAT COVERAGE WILL CONTINUE TO WANE THROUGHOUT
THE MORNING AS DRIER AIR MOVES IN AMID DIURNAL HEATING.
A PERIOD OF MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES IS LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE AN
AREA OF MID-LEVEL CLOUDS PUSH ACROSS THE REGION BY THIS EVENING.
SURFACE WINDS WILL REMAIN FROM THE WEST WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS
BETWEEN 10-15 KTS AND OCCASIONAL GUSTS BETWEEN 20-30 KTS,
DIMINISHING THIS EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE PASSES JUST SOUTH OF
THE REGION.
MJA
ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR ILZ027>031-
036>038-040>057-061>063-066>068-071>073.
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