351
FXUS63 KILX 191738
AFDILX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
1138 AM CST MON JAN 19 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- A COLD WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH NOON FOR WIND
CHILL VALUES OF 10 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW ZERO. THE THREAT OF VERY
COLD WEATHER WILL LIKELY RETURN THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY AND
CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
- NEAR DAILY CHANCES (10-30%) FOR LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES EXIST
THROUGHOUT THIS WEEK AND UPCOMING WEEKEND, BUT WITH LITTLE OR
NO NEW ACCUMULATION
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1050 AM CST MON JAN 19 2026
WILL CONTINUE THE COLD AIR ADVISORY THROUGH NOON ACROSS CENTRAL
AND SOUTHEAST IL. WIND CHILLS CURRENTLY RANGE FROM 10-20 BELOW
ZERO FROM SPRINGFIELD TO MATTOON TO PARIS NORTH TO ZERO TO 5 BELOW
IN SOUTHEAST IL SOUTH OF I-70. BRISK WNW WINDS 16-26 MPH AND
GUSTS 26-36 MPH COMBINED WITH TEMPS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS OVER
CENTRAL IL AND LOW TO MID TEENS IN SOUTHEAST IL GIVING THESE
BITTER COLD WIND CHILLS ESPECIALLY IN CENTRAL/NORTHERN IL. WIND
CHILLS SHOULD SLOWLY MODIFY NEXT FEW HOURS AND STILL COULD BE A
FEW SPOTS WITH WIND CHILLS NEAR 15 BELOW BETWEEN NOON AND 1 PM BUT
FEEL MORE AREAS WILL MODIFY ABOVE COLD WX ADVISORY CRITERIA AFTER
NOON.
A FEW UPDATES DONE TO THE FORECAST TODAY WITH MORE CLOUD COVER
OVER CENTRAL AND NORTHERN CWA. WE HAVE STREAKS/BANDS OF
STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS (BASES 2-3K FT) FROM MACOMB TO LINCOLN TO
PARIS NE, WHILE HIGH CLOUDS STREAMING EASTWARD INTO AREAS FROM
I-72 SOUTH AT LATE MORNING. ALSO INCREASED WNW WINDS A BIT HIGHER
INTO MIDDAY. STRONG 1035-1037 MB CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE OVER
SOUTHEAST NE AND NORTHEAST KS WILL SETTLE OVER THE OZARKS AND INTO
THE MID MS RIVER VALLEY BY SUNSET, AND SLOWLY DIMINISH THE BRISK
WNW WINDS TO 10-15 MPH AND GUSTS 18-25 MPH BY SUNSET. VERY COLD
TODAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID TEENS CENTRAL IL (COLDEST FROM
I-74 NE) AND UPPER TEENS TO NEAR 20F IN SOUTHEAST IL.
07
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 325 AM CST MON JAN 19 2026
PERIODS OF COLD TO OCCASIONALLY VERY COLD TEMPERATURES REMAIN THE
PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN FOR THE MIDWEST OVER THE NEXT 7 TO 10
DAYS. THE PATTERN WILL LARGELY BE DRIVEN BY A SIGNIFICANT
ALIGNMENT OF ATMOSPHERIC TELECONNECTIONS:
THE ARCTIC OSCILLATION (AO), NORTH ATLANTIC OSCILLATION (NAO), AND
EAST PACIFIC OSCILLATION (EPO) ARE ALL DEEPLY NEGATIVE.
ANALYSIS OF THIS MORNING'S NORTHERN HEMISPHERE 5-WAVE CHART
CONFIRMS THIS SETUP. A MASSIVE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IS CURRENTLY
STATIONED OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA, WHICH IS A HALLMARK OF A
DEEPLY NEGATIVE EPO. AT THE SAME TIME, AN ANOMALOUS RIDGE IS
IMPINGING UPON THE NORTH POLE, CHARACTERISTIC OF A DEEPLY NEGATIVE
AO. THIS CONFIGURATION PROMOTES THE EQUATORWARD DISPLACEMENT OF
THE POLAR VORTEX. CONSEQUENTLY, LOBES OF ARCTIC AIR ARE EXPECTED
TO PERIODICALLY SLIDE DOWN THE EASTERN PACIFIC RIDGE TOWARD THE
GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE MONTH. THE NET IMPACT
WILL BE OCCASIONAL PERIODS OF BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES, WITH
READINGS PROJECTED TO BE 10 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES.
THIS MEANS THERE WILL BE A HANDFUL OF DAYS FORTHCOMING WHERE
AFTERNOON HIGHS STRUGGLE TO RISE INTO THE 20S WHILE OVERNIGHT LOWS
FALL NEAR OR BELOW ZERO.
AN ACTIVE STORM TRACK WILL COINCIDE WITH THIS COLD AIR, BRINGING
A WAVETRAIN OF DISTURBANCES ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST. THESE QUICK-
HITTING, CLIPPER-LIKE SYSTEMS MAY OCCASIONALLY IMPACT CENTRAL
ILLINOIS DIRECTLY; HOWEVER, THEY ARE NOT EXPECTED TO DEVELOP INTO
SIGNIFICANT MID-LATITUDE CYCLONES, AND THEREFORE ARE NOT
FORECASTED TO PRODUCE SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL OVER THE NEXT WEEK.
THE TREND IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC OSCILLATION (EPO) IS A KEY
TELECONNECTIONS TO WATCH. WHILE CURRENTLY DEEPLY NEGATIVE, THE
INDEX IS PROJECTED TO TREND TOWARD NEUTRAL BY THE END OF THE WEEK.
THIS SHIFT PROMOTES A SLIGHT WEAKENING AND REPOSITIONING OF THE
ALASKAN RIDGE.
THE CHANGE WILL ALLOW MOISTURE TO LEAK UNDER THE RIDGE, A
DEVELOPMENT SUPPORTED BY MOST MODEL GUIDANCE. SPECIFICALLY, A
CLOSED UPPER LOW IS EXPECTED TO MEANDER PAST THE CALIFORNIA COAST
BY FRIDAY, DRAWING BOTH PACIFIC AND GULF MOISTURE INTO THE
SOUTHERN US.
THIS PATTERN IS ANTICIPATED TO LEAD TO A SUBSTANTIAL OVERRUNNING
EVENT THIS WEEKEND. WARM, MOIST AIR WILL RIDE OVER A STRONG COLD
DOME DESCENDING ACROSS THE MIDWEST, CREATING A THREAT OF SLEET AND
FREEZING RAIN ACROSS THE SOUTH, AND ACCUMULATING SNOW ACROSS
PARTS OF THE OZARKS AND TENNESSEE VALLEY.
FOR CENTRAL ILLINOIS, HOWEVER, RECENT FORECAST CYCLES HAVE
INDICATED A COLDER AND DRIER TREND FOR THE WEEKEND, WITH THE MOST
IMPACTFUL WINTRY PRECIPITATION LIKELY TRACKING JUST SOUTH OF THE
AREA.
MJA
AVIATION
(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1138 AM CST MON JAN 19 2026
BANDS OF LOW LEVEL CLOUD COVER AROUND 2000 FT AGL CONTINUE TO
STREAM ACROSS CENTRAL IL, MAINLY NEAR I-74 AND NORTHWARD. MODEL
GUIDANCE POINTS TO THIS THINNING GRADUALLY TODAY, SO THINKING ANY
CHANCES FOR MVFR CIGS WILL BE MAINLY CONFINED TO 18Z-20Z. ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY OVER THE UPPER PLAINS SHOULD MOVE OVER THE
AREA THIS EVENING, LIKELY BRINGING MID-LEVEL CLOUD COVER, BUT A
FEW RECENT MODEL RUNS HAVE SOME MVFR LEVEL CLOUDS WITH THIS
FEATURE. CURRENT OBS INDICATE MAINLY VFR IN ND, SO HAVE MAINTAINED
A VFR FORECAST AFTER CURRENT LOW CLOUDS DISSIPATE. WINDS WNW 15-20
KTS WITH GUSTS 25-30 KTS THIS AFTERNOON, DECREASING TO W 6-10 KTS
BY 00Z, AND CONTINUING TO SHIFT SW AND DECREASE SLIGHTLY
OVERNIGHT.
37
ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR ILZ027>031-
036>038-040>057-061>063-066>068-071>073.
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