429
FXUS63 KILX 192053
AFDILX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
253 PM CST MON JAN 19 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- WIND CHILLS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO ARE EXPECTED INTO
TONIGHT AND EARLY TUE MORNING. THE THREAT OF VERY COLD WEATHER
WILL LIKELY RETURN THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY AND CONTINUE
THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. WIND CHILLS WILL
LIKELY DROP TO 5 TO 20 BELOW ZERO OVERNIGHT THU NIGHT AND FRI
MORNING, AND POTENTIALLY TO 20 BELOW OR COLDER OVER MUCH OF
CENTRAL IL OVERNIGHT FRI NIGHT INTO SAT MORNING. WIND CHILLS
WILL LIKELY BE BELOW ZERO YET ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHTS.
- NEAR DAILY CHANCES (10-30%) FOR LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES
EXIST THROUGHOUT THIS WEEK AND UPCOMING WEEKEND, ESPECIALLY FROM
I-74 NORTH TUESDAY NIGHT, OVER SOUTHEAST IL FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY NIGHT, BUT WITH LITTLE OR NO SNOW ACCUMULATION.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 245 PM CST MON JAN 19 2026
PATCHY STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS LINGERED NE OF CHAMPAIGN BUT WERE
DECREASING PAST FEW HOURS AND CIRRUS CLOUDS HAVE SHIFTED INTO
SOUTHERN IL. THE VISIBLE SATELLITE SHOWING THE LIGHT SNOW PACK
OVER NORTHERN PARTS OF CHAMPAIGN, PIATT AND VERMILION COUNTIES
INTO CENTRAL PARTS OF MCLEAN AND DEWITT COUNTIES. BRISK WEST TO
WNW WINDS 12-22 MPH AND GUSTS 25-35 MPH AND TEMPS IN THE TEENS WAS
GIVING WIND CHILLS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO. 1033 MB
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE OVER NORTHEAST OK AND SOUTHEAST KS WAS
RIDGING INTO SOUTHERN IOWA AND WESTERN IL AND HELPING CLEAR THE
SKIES AND TO SEE WEST WINDS GRADUALLY DIMINISH LATE TODAY AND
EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES INTO THE OZARKS AND MID MS RIVER
VALLEY BY OVERNIGHT.
AN ELONGATED NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE OVER THE EASTERN DAKOTAS
INTO SW MN WILL QUICKLY PIVOT SOUTHEAST INTO CENTRAL/NORTHERN IL
OVERNIGHT AND INCREASE CLOUDS FROM THE NW DURING THIS EVENING
ALONG WITH BRINGING A CHANCE OF FLURRIES TO MAINLY NORTHERN/NE IL
TONIGHT. NORTHERN LIGHTS MAY BE VISIBLE TONIGHT ESPECIALLY FROM
NORTHERN IL NORTH BUT CLOUDS MAY GET IN THE WAY THIS EVENING AND
EARLY OVERNIGHT. LOWS TONIGHT OF 4-9F (COLDEST NE CWA) AND WIND
CHILLS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO, AND APPROACHING 10F BELOW
FROM BMI AND RANTOUL NORTHEAST.
PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES TUE, THOUGH CLOUDS INCREASING OVER NW
HALF OF CWA LATER TUE AFTERNOON WITH NEXT SHORT WAVE TROF MOVING
INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. NOT AS COLD OR WINDY TUE WITH HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 20S/LOWER 30S, MILDEST SW CWA AND SOUTHEAST IL WHERE TEMPS
COULD REACH AROUND FREEZING. SSW WINDS PICK UP TO 10-15 MPH TUE
AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 20 MPH. THE NEST CLIPPER SYSTEM
COULD BRING LIGHT SNOW CHANCES AS FAR SOUTH AS I-74 DURING TUE
NIGHT WITH BEST CHANCE OF SNOW ACCUMULATIONS NORTH OF KNOX, STARK
AND MARSHALL COUNTIES. LOWS TUE NIGHT IN THE LOW TO MID 20S.
BREEZY SW VEER WEST TO WSW WINDS WITH GUSTS 20-30 MPH ON WED AS
WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH, AND TO BRING OUR MILDEST DAY THIS
WEEK WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S CENTRAL IL AND 40-45F IN
SOUTHEAST IL. CLOUDS TO DECREASE FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE DAY
WED.
A COLD FRONT TO PUSH SE THROUGH CENTRAL IL ON WED NIGHT AND MAY
SEE SOME LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES SKIRT AREAS NORTH OF I-74 BUT
BETTER CHANCES OF SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE NORTH/NE OF CWA. COOLER
HIGHS THU IN THE UPPER 20S/LOWER 30S, WITH MID 30S FROM HIGHWAY 50
SOUTH. MUCH COLDER AIR USHERS INTO THE AREA DURING THU NIGHT WITH
PASSAGE OF ARCTIC COLD FRONT. LOWS THU NIGHT OF 5 ABOVE TO 5 BELOW
OVER CENTRAL IL AND 6-12 IN SOUTHEAST IL. WIND CHILLS TO LOWER TO
10-20 BELOW BY LATE THU NIGHT OVER CENTRAL IL AND IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS BELOW ZERO IN SOUTHEAST IL.
EXTENDED MODELS CONTINUE FURTHER SOUTH TRACK OF SOUTHERN STREAM
STORM SYSTEM LATE THIS WEEK ESPECIALLY 12Z GFS MODEL. ECMWF MODELS
BRINGS LIGHT SNOW INTO SOUTHERN CWA SAT AFTERNOON AND SATURDAY
NIGHT WHILE GEM MODELS IS FURTHER NORTH INTO CENTRAL IL WITH LIGHT
SNOW. CONTINUED WITH NBM POPS FOR THIS WEEKEND WX SYSTEM AND PCPN
TYPE IF IT HAPPENS SHOULD BE COLD ENOUGH FOR ALL SNOW WITH MIXED
PCPN SOUTH OF OUR AREA. THE BIGGER WX STORY WILL LIKELY BE THE
BITTER COLD AIR AND WIND CHILLS NEXT WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
WIND CHILLS COULD GET TO 15-25 BELOW ZERO OVERNIGHT FRI NIGHT INTO
SAT MORNING. COLD AIR ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED AS EARLY AS THU
NIGHT/FRI MORNING AND POSSIBLE EXTREME COLD WARNINGS/WATCH MAY BE
NEEDED FRI NIGHT/SAT MORNING OVER CENTRAL/SE IL. THIS MAY RIVAL
THE COLD SNAP WE HAD THIS PAST MID DECEMBER AND BITTER COLD WIND
CHILLS WELL BELOW ZERO LIKELY CONTINUE SAT AND SUNDAY NIGHTS.
THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER (CPC) 8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR JAN
27-FEB 2ND HAS A 55-65% CHANCE OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES OVER
CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST IL WITH A 40-50% CHANCE OF BELOW NORMAL
PRECIPITATION.
07
AVIATION
(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1138 AM CST MON JAN 19 2026
BANDS OF LOW LEVEL CLOUD COVER AROUND 2000 FT AGL CONTINUE TO
STREAM ACROSS CENTRAL IL, MAINLY NEAR I-74 AND NORTHWARD. MODEL
GUIDANCE POINTS TO THIS THINNING GRADUALLY TODAY, SO THINKING ANY
CHANCES FOR MVFR CIGS WILL BE MAINLY CONFINED TO 18Z-20Z. ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY OVER THE UPPER PLAINS SHOULD MOVE OVER THE
AREA THIS EVENING, LIKELY BRINGING MID-LEVEL CLOUD COVER, BUT A
FEW RECENT MODEL RUNS HAVE SOME MVFR LEVEL CLOUDS WITH THIS
FEATURE. CURRENT OBS INDICATE MAINLY VFR IN ND, SO HAVE MAINTAINED
A VFR FORECAST AFTER CURRENT LOW CLOUDS DISSIPATE. WINDS WNW 15-20
KTS WITH GUSTS 25-30 KTS THIS AFTERNOON, DECREASING TO W 6-10 KTS
BY 00Z, AND CONTINUING TO SHIFT SW AND DECREASE SLIGHTLY
OVERNIGHT.
37
ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page