520
FXUS63 KILX 220248
AFDILX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
848 PM CST WED JAN 21 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- A DISTURBANCE THIS EVENING MAY BRING A FEW FLURRIES, BUT
ACCUMULATIONS ARE UNLIKELY, ONLY AROUND 20-30 PERCENT
ALONG/NORTH OF I-74. GUSTY WINDS TO AROUND 45 MPH WILL
ACCOMPANY THIS FEATURE.
- AN ARCTIC AIR MASS WILL BRING A RETURN OF BITTERLY COLD
TEMPERATURES THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WIND CHILL
VALUES AS COLD AS 10 TO 30 BELOW ZERO ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY
MORNING NORTH OF I-70, AND SATURDAY MORNING SHOULD SEE 10 TO 20
BELOW ZERO WIND CHILLS THROUGHOUT CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST IL. AN
EXTREME COLD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM HAVANA TO BLOOMINGTON
NORTHWARD FRIDAY MORNING.
- A MAJOR WINTER STORM SYSTEM WILL PASS THROUGH THE SOUTHERN
STATES FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND, AND WILL LIKELY SPREAD SNOW
INTO MOST OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST IL. AREAS FROM AROUND I-70
SOUTHWARD COULD SEE HEAVY SNOW, AND A WINTER STORM WATCH IS IN
EFFECT SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 848 PM CST WED JAN 21 2026
CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK WITH WAVE OF SNOW SHOWERS
CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL ILLINOIS AND GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS
ARRIVING RIGHT BEHIND. THERE HAVE BEEN 3 SITES THAT HAVE REPORTED
WIND GUSTS OVER 40 MPH, BUT GUESSING HIGHER GUSTS HAVE OCCURRED
IN-BETWEEN OB SITES AS WELL. WIND ADVISORY CONTINUES UNTIL
MIDNIGHT AND WILL LEAVE IN PLACE FOR NOW, BUT MAY CONSIDER
CANCELING EARLY IF MORE REPORTS DO NOT COME IN. OVERNIGHT LOW
FORECAST LOOKS OK AS COLDEST TEMPS STILL BACK IN WESTERN IA AND
WILL BE ARRIVING LATE TONIGHT.
DID MAKE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO POP/WX GRIDS FOR NEXT COUPLE OF
HOURS AND STILL THINK PRECIP WILL MOVE OUT OF THE CWA BY 10 OR 11
PM.
THOUGH CHANGES HAVE BEEN MINOR, UPDATE SHOULD HAVE ALREADY GONE
OUT.
AUTEN
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 246 PM CST WED JAN 21 2026
A CLIPPER-TYPE WEATHER SYSTEM WILL TRAVERSE NORTHERN IL THIS
EVENING, WITH SOME FLURRIES OR A LIGHT DUSTING OF SNOW POSSIBLE.
WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH ARE NOTED IN NW IA THIS AFTERNOON,
HOWEVER HRRR MODEL DEPICTS THESE VALUES SUBTLY DECREASING AS THEY
APPROACH IL WITH THE PEAK GUSTS JUST NORTH OF CENTRAL IL.
THE NEXT MAJOR FEATURE IN THE FORECAST IS AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT
SURGING THROUGH CENTRAL IL STARTING THURSDAY AFTERNOON IN THE NW
AND REACHING SOUTHEAST IL AROUND MIDNIGHT. BRISK NORTHERLY WINDS
15-20 MPH AND TEMPERATURES PLUMMETING BELOW ZERO NORTH OF I-72
WILL AMOUNT TO WIND CHILLS OF AROUND 25 BELOW ZERO AROUND PEORIA
TO 5 TO 10 BELOW ZERO SOUTH OF I-70 BY FRIDAY MORNING. AN EXTREME
COLD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM AROUND HAVANA TO BLOOMINGTON
NORTHWARD FRIDAY MORNING.
THE ARCTIC AIR MASS WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA INTO NEXT WEEK
BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE MIGRATES INTO THE SOUTHEAST US INITIATING A
SOUTHERLY FLOW IN THE REGION. EXPECT HIGHS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS
AND TEENS UNTIL TUESDAY, COLDEST ON FRIDAY, AND LOWS PRIMARILY
SINGLE DIGITS TO BELOW ZERO. WIND CHILLS LOOK TO DIP BELOW ZERO
DAILY, WITH 10 TO 20 BELOW ZERO POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY SATURDAY AND
MONDAY.
FINALLY, A MAJOR WINTER STORM OVER THE SOUTHERN STATES FRIDAY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND WILL IMPACT PARTS OF CENTRAL AND ESPECIALLY
SOUTHEAST IL AS WELL. GULF MOISTURE OVERRUNNING THE ARCTIC FRONT
SHOULD SPREAD SNOW INTO THE AREA SATURDAY, WITH MODELS CONTINUING
A NORTHWARD SHIFT OF THIS FEATURE OVER THE LAST FEW RUNS. HAVE
ISSUED A WINTER STORM WATCH FOR AREAS SOUTH OF I-70 WHERE IT
CURRENTLY LOOKS LIKE 4 TO 6 INCHES OF ACCUMULATION ARE POSSIBLE
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY, ALONG WITH THE CONTINUED BITTER COLD
TEMPERATURES. AREAS TO THE NORTH APPEAR LIKELY TO SEE LESS SNOW,
HOWEVER FEW INCHES ARE CERTAINLY POSSIBLE THROUGHOUT CENTRAL IL,
WITH ENSEMBLES DEPICTING A 20 PERCENT CHANCE FOR 3 INCHES AS FROM
NORTH AS GALESBURG.
37
AVIATION
(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 603 PM CST WED JAN 21 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL SITES NEXT 24HRS EXCEPT FOR AT
PIA AND BMI WHEN RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS MOVE THROUGH THE SITES THIS
EVENING, THEN HAVE VIS OF 5SM...THOUGH IT COULD BE LOWER AT TIMES
WITH HEAVIER SHOWERS. AFTER THIS MOVES THROUGH, SKIES WILL SCATTER
OUT AND BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR. WINDS WILL BE ANOTHER CONCERN WITH
WIND GUSTS REACHING 35 TO 40 MPH AFTER THE SHOWERS MOVE THROUGH
AND WIND DIRECTION BECOMES MORE WEST TO NORTHWEST. WINDS DECREASE
TOMORROW MORNING AND ARE LIGHTER FROM THE WEST-NORTHWEST THROUGH
THE DAY.
AUTEN
ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR ILZ027>031-036>038.
EXTREME COLD WATCH FROM LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING FOR ILZ027>031-036>038.
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING
FOR ILZ066>068-071>073.
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