914
FXUS63 KILX 220445
AFDILX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
1045 PM CST WED JAN 21 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- A DISTURBANCE THIS EVENING MAY BRING A FEW FLURRIES, BUT
ACCUMULATIONS ARE UNLIKELY, ONLY AROUND 20-30 PERCENT
ALONG/NORTH OF I-74. GUSTY WINDS TO AROUND 45 MPH WILL
ACCOMPANY THIS FEATURE.
- AN ARCTIC AIR MASS WILL BRING A RETURN OF BITTERLY COLD
TEMPERATURES THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WIND CHILL
VALUES AS COLD AS 10 TO 30 BELOW ZERO ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY
MORNING NORTH OF I-70, AND SATURDAY MORNING SHOULD SEE 10 TO 20
BELOW ZERO WIND CHILLS THROUGHOUT CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST IL. AN
EXTREME COLD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM HAVANA TO BLOOMINGTON
NORTHWARD FRIDAY MORNING.
- A MAJOR WINTER STORM SYSTEM WILL PASS THROUGH THE SOUTHERN
STATES FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND, AND WILL LIKELY SPREAD SNOW
INTO MOST OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST IL. AREAS FROM AROUND I-70
SOUTHWARD COULD SEE HEAVY SNOW, AND A WINTER STORM WATCH IS IN
EFFECT SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 848 PM CST WED JAN 21 2026
CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK WITH WAVE OF SNOW SHOWERS
CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL ILLINOIS AND GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS
ARRIVING RIGHT BEHIND. THERE HAVE BEEN 3 SITES THAT HAVE REPORTED
WIND GUSTS OVER 40 MPH, BUT GUESSING HIGHER GUSTS HAVE OCCURRED
IN-BETWEEN OB SITES AS WELL. WIND ADVISORY CONTINUES UNTIL
MIDNIGHT AND WILL LEAVE IN PLACE FOR NOW, BUT MAY CONSIDER
CANCELING EARLY IF MORE REPORTS DO NOT COME IN. OVERNIGHT LOW
FORECAST LOOKS OK AS COLDEST TEMPS STILL BACK IN WESTERN IA AND
WILL BE ARRIVING LATE TONIGHT.
DID MAKE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO POP/WX GRIDS FOR NEXT COUPLE OF
HOURS AND STILL THINK PRECIP WILL MOVE OUT OF THE CWA BY 10 OR 11
PM.
THOUGH CHANGES HAVE BEEN MINOR, UPDATE SHOULD HAVE ALREADY GONE
OUT.
AUTEN
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 246 PM CST WED JAN 21 2026
A CLIPPER-TYPE WEATHER SYSTEM WILL TRAVERSE NORTHERN IL THIS
EVENING, WITH SOME FLURRIES OR A LIGHT DUSTING OF SNOW POSSIBLE.
WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH ARE NOTED IN NW IA THIS AFTERNOON,
HOWEVER HRRR MODEL DEPICTS THESE VALUES SUBTLY DECREASING AS THEY
APPROACH IL WITH THE PEAK GUSTS JUST NORTH OF CENTRAL IL.
THE NEXT MAJOR FEATURE IN THE FORECAST IS AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT
SURGING THROUGH CENTRAL IL STARTING THURSDAY AFTERNOON IN THE NW
AND REACHING SOUTHEAST IL AROUND MIDNIGHT. BRISK NORTHERLY WINDS
15-20 MPH AND TEMPERATURES PLUMMETING BELOW ZERO NORTH OF I-72
WILL AMOUNT TO WIND CHILLS OF AROUND 25 BELOW ZERO AROUND PEORIA
TO 5 TO 10 BELOW ZERO SOUTH OF I-70 BY FRIDAY MORNING. AN EXTREME
COLD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM AROUND HAVANA TO BLOOMINGTON
NORTHWARD FRIDAY MORNING.
THE ARCTIC AIR MASS WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA INTO NEXT WEEK
BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE MIGRATES INTO THE SOUTHEAST US INITIATING A
SOUTHERLY FLOW IN THE REGION. EXPECT HIGHS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS
AND TEENS UNTIL TUESDAY, COLDEST ON FRIDAY, AND LOWS PRIMARILY
SINGLE DIGITS TO BELOW ZERO. WIND CHILLS LOOK TO DIP BELOW ZERO
DAILY, WITH 10 TO 20 BELOW ZERO POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY SATURDAY AND
MONDAY.
FINALLY, A MAJOR WINTER STORM OVER THE SOUTHERN STATES FRIDAY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND WILL IMPACT PARTS OF CENTRAL AND ESPECIALLY
SOUTHEAST IL AS WELL. GULF MOISTURE OVERRUNNING THE ARCTIC FRONT
SHOULD SPREAD SNOW INTO THE AREA SATURDAY, WITH MODELS CONTINUING
A NORTHWARD SHIFT OF THIS FEATURE OVER THE LAST FEW RUNS. HAVE
ISSUED A WINTER STORM WATCH FOR AREAS SOUTH OF I-70 WHERE IT
CURRENTLY LOOKS LIKE 4 TO 6 INCHES OF ACCUMULATION ARE POSSIBLE
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY, ALONG WITH THE CONTINUED BITTER COLD
TEMPERATURES. AREAS TO THE NORTH APPEAR LIKELY TO SEE LESS SNOW,
HOWEVER FEW INCHES ARE CERTAINLY POSSIBLE THROUGHOUT CENTRAL IL,
WITH ENSEMBLES DEPICTING A 20 PERCENT CHANCE FOR 3 INCHES AS FROM
NORTH AS GALESBURG.
37
AVIATION
(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1045 PM CST WED JAN 21 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES NEXT 24HRS. ALL
PRECIP HAS MOVED OUT OF THE STATE AND MOST CLOUDS HAVE SCATTERED
OUT AS WELL, WITH SCATTERED LOWER CLOUDS AROUND 3.5KFT STILL
MOVING ACROSS THE AREA. HIGH CIRRUS WILL ALSO FLOAT BY ALL SITES
OVERNIGHT AND TOMORROW BUT MID CLOUDS WILL ADVECT IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST AND BRING BROKEN CIGS AROUND 12-15KFT AT ALL SITES LATE
IN THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS WILL REMAIN NORTHWEST THROUGH MOST OF THE
PERIOD, BUT BECOME CLOSER TO NORTHWEST-NORTH LATE IN THE TAF
PERIOD. SPEEDS WILL REMAIN HIGH, AROUND 30KTS OVERNIGHT, BUT BEGIN
TO DIMINISH IN THE NEXT 2-3HRS AT ALL SITES. SPEEDS LESS THAN
10KTS EXPECTED TOMORROW BUT THEN INCREASE AGAIN, WITH GUSTS AROUND
20KTS LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD.
AUTEN
ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR ILZ027>031-036>038.
EXTREME COLD WATCH FROM LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING FOR ILZ027>031-036>038.
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING
FOR ILZ066>068-071>073.
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