301
FXUS63 KILX 150258
AFDILX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
858 PM CST SAT FEB 14 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- RAIN WILL PERSIST AND MOVE NORTHWARD TODAY. THE HEAVIEST RAIN
AXIS REMAINS SOUTH OF I-70, WHERE PONDING MAY OCCUR, ESPECIALLY
IN LOW-LYING, POORLY DRAINED, AND URBAN AREAS.
- UNSEASONABLY WARM AIR (20-25 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL) ARRIVES NEXT
WEEK, PEAKING WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH MID-TO-UPPER 60S
TEMPERATURES. GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS (30-40 MPH) WILL PRECEDE
THIS WARMUP.
- A CONDITIONAL THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER EXISTS BUT IS NOT
PARTICULARLY LIKELY IN THE WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY TIMEFRAME.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 858 PM CST SAT FEB 14 2026
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY LATE THIS EVENING SHOWS A POTENT SHORTWAVE
TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS STATES WITH A SURFACE LOW WORKING
THROUGH THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION. ISENTROPIC ASCENT ON
THE NORTHERN FRINGES OF THIS LOW HAS RESULTED IN WIDESPREAD LIGHT TO
MODERATE RAIN OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE STATE. A SHARP CUTOFF IN
PRECIPITATION HAS REMAINED RATHER STATIONARY OVER THE LAST FEW
HOURS ROUGHLY ALONG A MACOMB TO DANVILLE LINE. RAIN HAS OCCURRED
FOR MOST SOUTH OF THIS LINE WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS COMING IN
SOUTH OF I-72 WHERE RADAR ESTIMATES AND AUTOMATED SURFACE
OBSERVING STATIONS SHOW ANYWHERE FROM 0.25-0.75" HAVE FALLEN.
ADDITIONAL AMOUNTS THROUGH TONIGHT LOOK TO TOP OUT AROUND 0.50",
THOUGH VALUES HIGHER THAN THAT ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION
ESPECIALLY NEAR AND SOUTH OF I-70 WHERE FRONTOGENETIC BANDING IS
FAVORED.
RAIN EXITS FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST AFTER MIDNIGHT, WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR FOG TO DEVELOP AS WINDS REMAIN LIGHT. HIGH RESOLUTION
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST THE BEST CHANCES FOR PATCHY FOG WILL
BE NORTH OF THE I-70 CORRIDOR AFTER 3 AM, JUST NORTH OF THE
DEPARTING RAIN SHIELD. THE 15.00Z HREF SHOWS ABOUT A 20-40% CHANCE
FOR VISIBILITY TO FALL BELOW 1 MILE SO CONFIDENCE IS STILL RATHER
LOW ON IF WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG WILL MATERIALIZE.
NMA
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1220 PM CST SAT FEB 14 2026
A VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE TROUGH CONTINUES TO PUSH TOWARD THE LOWER-
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON, CAUSING A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM TO DEEPEN AND BROADEN, DRAWING UP MOISTURE FROM THE GULF.
CENTRAL ILLINOIS WILL BE SITUATED ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THIS
DEVELOPING LOW, RESULTING IN UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE SHARPNESS
AND NORTHWARD EXTENT OF THE LOW-LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE, ASSOCIATED
FRONTOGENESIS (FGEN), AND SUBSEQUENT PRECIPITATION. HIGH-RES
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW NOTABLE RUN-TO-RUN VARIABILITY.
SPECIFICALLY, THE RRFS MODEL HAS OSCILLATED THE QPF GRADIENT
NORTH-OR-SOUTH 50 MILES OVER ITS LAST 3 ITERATIONS (00Z, 06Z,
12Z). MEANWHILE, THE HREF HAS BEEN MORE CONSISTENT WITH ITS
DEPICTION OF THE QPF GRADIENT, WHICH IS FOCUSED WEST-TO-EAST ALONG
I-72/HWY-36.
PROBABILISTICALLY, THE LIKELIHOOD OF HEAVIER RAIN REMAINS SOUTH
OF I-72/HWY-36. THE LATEST 12Z HREF INDICATES A HIGH (70-90%)
CHANCE OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING 0.50 INCHES SOUTH OF A PITTSFIELD TO
PARIS LINE, WITH PROBABILITIES DROPPING SHARPLY TO THE NORTH.
FURTHERMORE, A MEDIUM (40-60%) CHANCE OF EXCEEDING 1 INCH OF RAIN
IS FORECAST SOUTH OF AN EFFINGHAM TO ROBINSON LINE.
DRIER WEATHER WILL RETURN ON SUNDAY ACROSS THE PLAINS AND MIDWEST
AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING STORM
SYSTEM. AN AGGRESSIVE WARM-UP IS THEN ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THIS PATTERN WILL BE DRIVEN BY A DEEP TROUGH
DIGGING INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC, WHICH WILL SPREAD DEEP SOUTHWEST
FLOW ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND THE PLAINS STATES. AS THIS
TROUGH MOVES EASTWARD AND A SURFACE LEE CYCLONE STRENGTHENS, THE
MIDWEST WILL EXPERIENCE GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS (30-40 MPH). THE
NET EFFECT WILL BE THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES OF THE SEASON SO FAR.
CURRENT NBM MEDIAN GUIDANCE SUPPORTS 60S MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY,
WITH THE UPPER TAIL OF GUIDANCE PUSHING 70 DEGREES FOR WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY.
THE MAIN CONCERN FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK IS THE POTENTIAL FOR
SEVERE WEATHER. DESPITE STRONG ATMOSPHERIC DYNAMICS AND EXCELLENT
FORCING MECHANISMS FOR LIFT, GLOBAL DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE
CURRENTLY STRUGGLING TO CLEARLY SHOW A CONVECTIVE SIGNAL. FOR THE
TIME BEING, IT APPEARS MODELS ARE EITHER SLOW TO BRING IN LOW-
LEVEL MOISTURE, OR THE CONDITIONS WILL GENUINELY BE TOO DRY TO
SUPPORT ORGANIZED CONVECTION WITH THE COLD FRONT PASSING EARLY
WEDNESDAY. A POTENTIALLY BETTER SIGNAL EMERGES FOR THURSDAY
EVENING, TIED TO ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH PIVOTING THROUGH THE
UPPER- TO MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION. HOWEVER, MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY PROFILES IN DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE ARE NOT
PARTICULARLY PROMISING FOR THIS PERIOD EITHER, AT LEAST AT THE
CURRENT TIME.
A SHIFT TO COOLER WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO RETURN AND PERSIST FROM
FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. THE NBM DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS DAILY TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL,
WITH AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES AROUND THE LOWER 40S AND
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S.
MJA
AVIATION
(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 530 PM CST SAT FEB 14 2026
RAIN CONTINUES TO SPREAD EAST-NORTHEAST THIS EVENING, PRIMARILY
AFFECTING TAF SITES NEAR AND SOUTH OF I-72. MVFR CEILINGS AND VISBYS
ARRIVE LATER THIS EVENING, REACHING MOST TERMINALS AFTER 03Z. RAIN
EXITS TERMINALS BETWEEN 06-08Z, WITH A 50-70% CHANCE OF IFR CEILINGS
DEVELOPING AT KSPI-KDEC-KCMI BEHIND ITS DEPARTURE. CONDITIONS
IMPROVE BY LATE MORNING WITH CLOUDS EXPECTED TO SCATTER OUT BY
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT THROUGH THE PERIOD AS THEY
GRADUALLY BACK FROM THE SOUTH THIS EVENING TO NORTH-NORTHWEST BY THE
END OF THE PERIOD.
NMA
ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
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